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Agricultural prices

Chapter 35: PRICES DURING 1862–1878.
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About This Book

A practical guide for farmers and students that explains how prices for staple farm products are formed and recorded, emphasizing the interplay of supply, demand, and cost of production. It critiques existing price-registering mechanisms, including futures trading on commodity exchanges, and shows how market information and speculation influence farm returns. The author develops a ratio method to estimate cost of production for livestock and crops and applies it to hogs, cattle, milk, and grain as illustrative cases. Mathematical tools such as index numbers, correlation coefficients, and regression are presented for analyzing trends and forecasting, with discussion of their limitations. Practical teaching advice, recommended data sources, and appended tables support hands-on study and price monitoring.

CHICAGO WHEAT PRICES.
1860. 1861. 1862. 1863. 1864. 1865. 1866. 1867. 1868. 1869. Ten-yr. av.
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
January .98 .76 .66 .96 1.11 1.40 .87 1.95 1.63 1.14 1.146
February .97 .75 .72 1.08 1.11 1.25 .84 1.90 2.01 1.16 1.179
March 1.01 .77 .73 1.08 1.10 1.16 .91 2.04 1.95 1.13 1.188
April 1.04 .86 .72 1.03 1.19 1.03 .96 1.93 1.96 1.07 1.179
May 1.06 .94 .71 .95 1.22 1.05 1.77 2.14 2.02 1.13 1.299
June 1.04 .63 .72 .94 1.56 1.06 1.19 1.96 1.92 1.16 1.218
July 1.00 .62 .79 .92 2.02 1.03 1.00 1.49 1.47 1.31 1.165
August .83 .67 .87 .86 1.91 1.17 1.41 1.75 1.72 1.38 1.257
September .85 .69 .81 .94 1.87 1.24 1.78 1.79 1.54 1.23 1.274
October .83 .71 .87 1.05 1.58 1.22 1.89 1.90 1.29 1.02 1.236
November .77 .66 .77 1.04 1.76 1.13 1.89 1.76 1.12 .89 1.179
December .74 .64 .83 1.08 1.52 .92 1.85 1.46 1.14 .86 1.104
Yearly aver. .927 .725 .767 .994 1.495 1.138 1.361 1.839 1.647 1.123 1.202
1870. 1871. 1872. 1873. 1874. 1875. 1876. 1877. 1878. 1879. Ten-yr. av.
January .79 1.14 1.23 1.23 1.22 .89 .99 1.28 1.06 .83 1.066
February .81 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.19 .85 1.02 1.29 1.05 .89 1.081
March .58 1.24 1.21 1.20 1.19 .91 1.01 1.25 1.08 .92 1.059
April .80 1.29 1.25 1.19 1.24 1.00 1.02 1.43 1.10 .89 1.121
May .95 1.27 1.48 1.29 1.23 1.01 1.03 1.62 1.10 .97 1.195
June 1.10 1.26 1.45 1.22 1.20 .96 1.05 1.48 .97 1.04 1.173
July 1.12 1.20 1.25 1.18 1.14 1.12 .96 1.42 .95 .99 1.133
August 1.09 1.04 1.37 1.22 1.02 1.21 .89 1.14 .99 .86 1.083
September .99 1.11 1.21 1.10 .97 1.13 1.02 1.13 .87 .94 1.047
October 1.06 1.22 1.13 1.04 .89 1.11 1.10 1.10 .81 1.12 1.058
November .81 1.23 1.07 1.01 .88 1.08 1.11 1.08 .82 1.16 1.025
December 1.06 1.19 1.14 1.12 .90 .98 1.19 1.09 .83 1.29 1.079
Yearly aver. .930 1.202 1.252 1.169 1.089 1.020 1.032 1.275 .969 .992 1.093
1880. 1881. 1882. 1883. 1884. 1885. 1886. 1887. 1888. 1889. Ten-yr. av.
January 1.25 .98 1.30 .99 .92 .79 .81 .79 .77 .96 .956
February 1.23 .98 1.27 1.08 .93 .77 .81 .75 .77 1.01 .960
March 1.21 1.01 1.30 1.07 .88 .77 .79 .77 .76 1.00 .956
April 1.11 1.02 1.35 1.07 .85 .85 .76 .80 .77 .91 .949
May 1.15 1.04 1.27 1.11 .90 .88 .76 .85 .86 .86 .968
June .97 1.10 1.30 1.06 .87 .87 .74 .81 .82 .83 .937
July .92 1.14 1.30 1.01 .82 .88 .77 .70 .82 .81 .917
August .89 1.29 1.09 1.02 .80 .84 .76 .68 .88 .78 .903
September .91 1.28 1.01 .96 .76 .82 .74 .69 1.45 .79 .941
October .98 1.36 .95 .93 .76 .88 .72 .71 1.11 .80 .920
November 1.06 1.28 .93 .96 .73 .87 .75 .74 1.09 .80 .921
December 1.01 1.27 .93 .97 .73 .86 .77 .77 1.01 .79 .911
Yearly aver. 1.057 1.145 1.175 1.019 .829 .840 .765 .755 .926 .862 .936
1890. 1891. 1892. 1893. 1894. 1895. 1896. 1897. 1898. 1899. Ten-yr. av.
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
January .76 .91 .87 .75 .61 .55 .62 .83 1.00 .71 .761
February .76 .95 .88 .74 .58 .54 .67 .80 1.02 .72 .766
March .79 1.01 .84 .76 .58 .57 .65 .80 1.03 .70 .773
April .85 1.09 .81 .79 61 .62 .66 .81 1.12 .73 .809
May .95 1.03 .83 .72 .57 .73 .62 .83 1.51 .74 .853
June .89 .96 .83 .65 .59 .77 .60 .75 .98 .74 .776
July .90 .92 .78 .60 .55 .68 .58 .74 .77 .72 .724
August .99 1.00 .77 .60 .55 .65 .58 .91 .70 .72 .747
September 1.00 .95 .73 .66 .53 .60 .63 .93 .65 .72 .740
October 1.00 .96 .72 .63 .54 .61 .73 .94 .66 .72 .751
November .95 .94 .71 .61 .57 .59 .83 .96 .67 .68 .751
December .90 .91 .71 .62 .58 .59 .84 1.01 .66 .67 .749
Yearly aver. .895 .969 .790 .678 .572 .625 .668 .859 .898 .714 .767
1900. 1901. 1902. 1903. 1904. 1905. 1906. 1907. 1908. 1909. Ten-yr. av.
January .65 .74 .77 .70 .87 1.18 .86 .73 .97 1.06 .853
February .66 .73 .75 .77 .98 1.19 .83 .80 .95 1.16 .882
March .66 .75 .78 .73 .96 1.15 .80 .80 .96 1.22 .881
April .66 .72 .73 .75 .94 1.03 .85 .81 .94 1.32 .875
May .66 .73 .74 .78 .97 1.00 .88 .93 1.05 1.40 .914
June .77 .71 .74 .80 .99 1.07 .85 .96 .95 1.45 .929
July .78 .67 .75 .80 1.03 1.03 .79 .98 .88 1.23 .894
August .74 .72 .72 .84 1.07 .96 .74 .93 .93 1.18 .883
September .76 .70 .83 .84 1.14 .87 .74 1.02 1.01 1.08 .899
October .74 .69 .72 .82 1.16 .88 .72 1.07 1.03 1.12 .895
November .72 .72 .74 .81 1.15 .88 .73 .93 1.05 1.12 .885
December .72 .76 .75 .82 1.17 .86 .74 1.02 1.03 1.17 .904
Yearly aver. .710 .720 .752 .789 1.035 1.008 .793 .915 .979 1.209 .891
1910. 1911. 1912. 1913. 1914. 1915. 1916. 1917. 1918. 1919. Ten-yr. av.
January 1.19 1.02 1.04 1.02 .93 1.41 1.29 1.85 2.18 2.35 1.428
February 1.19 .97 1.05 1.01 .94 1.57 1.24 1.76 2.19 2.30 1.422
March 1.19 .93 1.07 .98 .94 1.51 1.14 1.93 2.19 2.36 1.424
April 1.14 .94 1.11 1.00 .94 1.58 1.21 2.00 2.19 2.63 1.474
May 1.09 .97 1.17 1.00 .96 1.50 1.15 3.02 2.19 2.73 1.580
June 1.06 .95 1.13 1.00 .89 1.30 1.08 2.67 2.19 2.39 1.466
July 1.14 .92 1.07 .90 .89 1.31 1.18 2.55 2.28 2.26 1.450
August 1.12 1.01 1.01 .89 1.01 1.15 1.43 2.56 2.29 2.25 1.472
September 1.07 1.01 .99 .92 1.16 1.08 1.56 2.24 2.26 2.54 1.483
October 1.03 1.06 1.01 .89 1.10 1.10 1.80 2.19 2.26 2.55 1.499
November .99 1.01 .96 .91 1.15 1.09 1.83 2.19 2.26 2.73 1.512
December 1.00 1.01 .98 .92 1.22 1.17 1.66 2.19 2.32 2.92 1.539
Yearly aver. 1.100 .984 1.059 .954 1.010 1.314 1.381 2.262 2.240 2.500 1.480

PRICES DURING 1862–1878.

Prices during the 1862–1878 period are generally given in currency, and the currency of that period, unfortunately, had a fluctuating gold value, just as the British pound has today. In order that our readers may be able to convert the currency prices of 1862–1878 into terms of gold, we are publishing the following table:

AMOUNT OF GREENBACK CURRENCY NECESSARY TO BUY ONE DOLLAR IN GOLD IN UNITED STATES, FROM 1862–1878, INCLUSIVE.
1862. 1863. 1864. 1865. 1866. 1867. 1868. 1869. 1870.
January $1.02 $1.48 $1.56 $2.16 $1.37 $1.35 $1.38 $1.36 $1.21
February 1.03 1.63 1.59 2.02 1.39 1.38 1.42 1.34 1.18
March 1.02 1.56 1.64 1.75 1.31 1.37 1.40 1.32 1.13
April 1.02 1.52 1.76 1.49 1.27 1.38 1.39 1.33 1.14
May 1.02 1.50 1.79 1.37 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.40 1.15
June 1.07 1.45 2.22 1.42 1.53 1.38 1.40 1.38 1.13
July 1.14 1.34 2.54 1.43 1.52 1.40 1.43 1.36 1.17
August 1.15 1.26 2.47 1.42 1.50 1.41 1.47 1.34 1.18
September 1.20 1.35 2.23 1.45 1.45 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.15
October 1.28 1.49 2.09 1.47 1.50 1.43 1.38 1.30 1.13
November 1.31 1.49 2.35 1.48 1.45 1.41 1.35 1.28 1.12
December 1.32 1.51 2.28 1.47 1.37 1.36 1.36 1.22 1.11
1871. 1872. 1873. 1874. 1875. 1876. 1877. 1878.
January 1.11 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.13 1.13 1.06 1.02
February 1.12 1.11 1.14 1.12 1.14 1.14 1.06 1.02
March 1.11 1.11 1.17 1.13 1.16 1.15 1.05 1.02
April 1.11 1.12 1.18 1.13 1.15 1.13 1.07 1.01
May 1.12 1.13 1.18 1.13 1.16 1.13 1.07 1.01
June 1.13 1.14 1.17 1.12 1.17 1.13 1.07 1.01
July 1.13 1.14 1.16 1.10 1.14 1.12 1.06 1.01
August 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.14 1.11 1.05 1.00
September 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.10 1.15 1.10 1.04 1.00
October 1.14 1.14 1.10 1.10 1.16 1.11 1.03 1.00
November 1.11 1.13 1.09 1.11 1.15 1.09 1.03 1.00
December 1.10 1.13 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.08 1.03 1.00
CHICAGO TEN-YEAR AVERAGE DAILY PRICES, 1904–1913.

Compiling the tables on pages 126–133 involved considerable work, but it is believed that for studying seasonal trends and normal relationships at different times of the year, these figures are very valuable. As a matter of interest, a few future contract prices are averaged. It will be noted that the future prices differ considerably from the cash prices until the date of the delivery month draws near, when the future and the cash prices become almost identical. Before the war, the future contract system worked very well, but during the war it was rather unsatisfactory. There is an interesting field of study in the seasonal trend of northern wheat (spring) as compared with red wheat (winter).

JANUARY.
Day. Cash Corn (cts.) Dec. Corn (cts.) Hog Top Packing Sows Cash Lard Sept. Lard Cash Ribs July Ribs Cash Oats (cts.) Sept. Oats (cts.) Wheat, No. 2 Red (cts.) Wheat, No. 1 N’th’rn. (cts.)
3 51.2   $6.32 $5.81 $8.94   $8.26   38.7   99.0 99.0
4 51.2   6.34 5.85 8.97   8.31   38.9   99.4 99.2
5 51.3   6.37 5.84 8.97   8.32   38.9   100.0 99.1
6 51.4   6.37 5.85 9.01   8.35   39.0   100.2 99.9
7 51.6   6.42 5.90 8.99   8.35   39.1   100.2 99.3
8 51.6   6.41 5.90 8.96   8.33   39.0   100.1 99.2
9 51.5   6.40 5.90 8.94   8.34   39.1   100.2 99.4
10 51.9   6.34 5.87 8.93   8.33   39.0   100.4 99.2
11 52.0   6.28 5.81 8.94   8.35   39.4   100.2 99.3
12 52.2   6.31 5.81 8.95   8.38   39.3   100.2 99.4
13 52.3   6.34 5.84 8.97   8.38   39.4   100.0 99.2
14 52.3   6.37 5.85 9.00   8.40   39.5   100.3 99.5
15 52.2   6.40 5.87 8.97   8.43   39.5   99.9 99.3
16 52.2   6.39 5.88 8.97   8.42   39.7   100.0 99.3
17 52.4   6.39 5.88 9.00   8.44   39.8   100.1 99.3
18 52.1   6.40 5.89 8.96   8.45   39.7   100.3 99.3
19 52.3   6.41 5.89 8.96   8.45   39.7   100.1 99.1
20 51.9   6.38 5.87 8.97   8.46   39.8   100.1 99.3
21 52.0   6.39 5.88 8.97   8.46   40.0   100.3 99.5
22 52.0   6.38 5.88 8.92   8.43   40.0   100.1 99.1
23 51.9   6.36 5.87 8.91   8.43   39.8   100.1 99.6
24 51.9   6.38 5.90 8.94   8.46   39.9   100.1 99.6
25 51.9   6.41 5.92 8.93   8.48   39.9   100.0 99.3
26 51.9   6.40 5.91 8.95   8.48   39.9   99.9 99.2
27 51.8   6.42 5.92 8.96   8.50   39.9   100.0 99.2
28 51.9   6.41 5.91 8.95   8.47   39.7   100.2 99.5
29 51.9   6.41 5.90 8.95   8.48   40.0   190.4 99.7
30 51.9   6.44 5.91 8.97   8.50   40.1   100.4 99.7
31 51.8   6.48 5.94 8.90   8.50   40.0   100.1 99.5
Av. 51.9   6.38 5.88 8.96   8.40   39.5   100.1 99.3
FEBRUARY.
1 51.6   6.49 5.95 8.89   8.49   39.9   100.0 100.2
2 52.0   6.48 5.95 8.95   8.54   40.1   100.2 100.4
3 52.4   6.47 5.97 8.96   8.54   40.2   100.3 100.4
4 52.8   6.49 5.99 8.97   8.54   40.4   100.6 100.6
5 52.9   6.52 6.00 8.95   8.53   40.4   100.6 100.9
6 52.7   6.53 6.03 8.96   8.52   40.6   100.7 101.0
7 52.6   6.53 6.02 8.95   8.52   40.7   101.0 101.1
8 52.5   6.56 6.08 8.92   8.51   40.7   100.9 101.0
9 52.6   6.56 6.07 9.02   8.56   40.8   101.0 101.2
10 52.5   6.60 6.12 8.98   8.54   40.9   101.0 101.3
11 52.4   6.63 6.16 8.98   8.55   40.8   101.0 101.3
12 52.4   6.61 6.13 8.96   8.53   40.8   100.9 101.1
13 52.4   6.62 6.13 8.94   8.52   40.8   100.7 101.0
14 52.5   6.61 6.13 8.96   8.53   40.9   100.5 101.0
15 52.7   6.62 6.15 8.96   8.52   40.9   100.9 101.3
16 52.7   6.64 6.17 8.94   8.51   40.8   101.0 101.4
17 52.7   $6.65 $6.18 $8.96   $8.53   40.7   100.7 101.1
18 52.8   6.67 6.18 8.95   8.53   40.7   100.3 100.8
19 52.7   6.67 6.19 8.96   8.55   41.1   100.5 101.0
20 52.7   6.68 6.21 8.95   8.54   41.1   101.3 101.6
21 52.8   6.69 6.21 8.96   8.56   41.1   101.3 101.8
22 52.7   6.71 6.23 8.98   8.56   41.1   101.4 101.8
23 52.9   6.74 6.25 8.99   8.56   41.1   101.4 101.3
24 53.0   6.73 6.26 8.98   8.56   41.2   101.6 101.7
25 53.1   6.75 6.27 9.00   8.58   41.3   101.3 102.0
26 53.1   6.76 6.29 9.00   8.58   41.5   101.4 102.1
27 53.4   6.72 6.28 9.03   8.62   41.7   101.5 102.0
28 53.3   6.80 6.33 9.04   8.64   41.6   101.4 102.0
Av. 52.7   6.63 6.14 8.96   8.52   40.9   100.9 101.2
MARCH.
1 53.2   6.79 6.32 9.04 9.36 8.50   41.2   101.3 101.2
2 53.4   6.79 6.33 9.07 9.37 8.60   41.6   101.1 101.3
3 53.2   6.80 6.34 9.07 9.39 8.60   41.3   101.0 101.0
4 53.4   6.80 6.34 9.08 9.39 8.61   41.0   100.7 100.8
5 53.6   6.80 6.35 9.13 9.41 8.64   41.1   100.1 100.4
6 53.6   6.87 6.39 9.17 9.45 8.66   41.2   99.9 100.3
7 53.5   6.90 6.43 9.13 9.45 8.68   41.0   99.6 99.7
8 53.8   6.89 6.40 9.15 9.42 8.69   41.2   99.3 99.2
9 53.8   6.96 6.45 9.20 9.47 8.72   41.1   99.0 99.0
10 54.1   6.98 6.45 9.15 9.44 8.69   41.1   99.3 99.6
11 54.1   6.97 6.48 9.14 9.43 8.71   40.9   99.2 99.7
12 54.3   7.01 6.52 9.16 9.44 8.72   40.9   99.5 99.9
13 54.5   7.03 6.52 9.17 9.45 8.75   40.9   99.4 99.8
14 54.5   7.00 6.52 9.18 9.47 8.77   41.1   99.9 100.1
15 54.5   7.01 6.52 9.16 9.44 8.76   40.8   99.9 99.8
16 54.2   7.02 6.53 9.19 9.41 8.76   40.7   99.7 99.6
17 54.4   7.05 6.54 9.18 9.42 8.77   40.5   99.6 99.7
18 54.1   7.05 6.55 9.18 9.42 8.77   40.5   99.6 99.6
19 54.5   7.06 6.57 9.17 9.42 8.78   40.9   99.8 99.7
20 54.4   7.06 6.54 9.17 9.40 8.78   41.0   99.7 99.7
21 54.2   7.10 6.61 9.18 9.39 8.81   40.9   99.5 99.5
22 54.6   7.10 6.62 9.20 9.40 8.84   40.9   99.4 99.6
23 54.8   7.11 6.63 9.22 9.41 8.84   40.8   99.4 99.7
24 55.0   7.11 6.64 9.23 9.40 8.81   40.8   99.8 99.8
25 55.2   7.14 6.66 9.21 9.41 8.82   40.7   99.9 100.0
26 55.2   7.19 6.70 9.26 9.44 8.85   40.8   100.1 101.4
27 55.3   7.26 6.76 9.32 9.49 8.94   40.9   100.2 101.4
28 55.3   7.29 6.79 9.32 9.51 8.95   40.9   100.3 101.4
29 55.5   7.31 6.81 9.28 9.49 8.92   40.9   100.0 101.0
30 55.7   7.28 6.77 9.28 9.44 8.88   41.1   99.9 101.0
31 55.9   7.29 6.77 9.28 9.47 8.91   41.1   100.5 100.7
Av. 54.5   6.99 6.55 9.18 9.43 8.76   41.0   99.9 100.2