December 17th.—These smooth appearances were deceitful, for the Government met with an unexpected and violent opposition to their Foreign Enlistment Bill, and only carried the second reading by a majority of 12. Ellenborough, puffed up with conceit and soured by disappointment and the nullity of his position, commenced a furious attack on this bill in an able speech replete with bitterness and sarcasm. Derby, too happy to join in any mischief, brought the support of his party, and a debate ensued, in which, as usual, the speaking of Ellenborough and Derby gave them the advantage, but the Government got a majority enough for their purpose. The bill itself is very unpopular, nobody can tell why, except that all sorts of misrepresentations were made about it the first night, and people have not yet been undeceived. I doubt if it was worth while to bring in such a bill, but it is certain if they had not done so, and immediately, they would have been furiously reproached by those who oppose them now, and above all accused of being 'too late.' The imprudent speech which John Russell made about Austria the first night elicited a violent attack on him in the 'Times,' which is sure to have put him in very bad humour. The speech and the attack were equally unjustifiable and mischievous. I have no idea why he said what he did, unless it was for the sake of appearing to fall in with the vulgar prejudice against Austria.
December 18th.—The dislike of the Foreign Enlistment Bill is very general, but nobody can give any reason for their opposition to it.[1] It is, however, so great that it is not certain that it can be carried through the House of Commons, and so little is the Government cared for that I doubt many being found who will incur the resentment of their constituents or give an unpopular vote to save them. If they should be beaten, I think they must go out. John Russell is in a bad disposition of mind, as may be gathered from his entourage, who are in rabid opposition. Lord John, however, will probably do what he can to make this measure go down, as I find he is himself the author of it; but I much doubt if he would care for the Government being broken up, and he is not unlikely to regard such a catastrophe as the event best calculated to restore him to the post he so much covets. It is certainly possible that Derby, conscious he could not make a Government himself, would offer to support the Whig section of this Cabinet with all the Peelites eliminated from it, and that an attempt might be made to form a Government with Lord John, Palmerston, and perhaps Ellenborough. However, all this is vague speculation, and not worth following out.
[1] [The object of the Foreign Enlistment Bill was to enable the Government to enlist 15,000 foreigners in the British army to be drilled in this country. It was denounced and opposed especially in the House of Lords as a dangerous and unconstitutional measure, but it eventually passed, and a considerable number of Germans were enlisted under it.]
December 20th.—Government got a majority of 39, better than was expected. Lord John threatened to resign if he was beaten. The debate will not do them much good when it is read, nor serve to render their measure more popular. Everybody thinks the whole affair has been grossly mismanaged, and that, instead of making a mystery of their intentions, they ought to have thrown out such intimations of them as would have elicited public opinion; but the truth is, not one of them had the least suspicion that the measure would meet with any resistance or even objection, nor would there have been any if Ellenborough had not started the hare, and then Derby and his party joyfully availed themselves of the opportunity to do mischief, and joined in the cry. When the bill was announced, Derby never dreamt of opposing it. The arguments against the measure seem to me very plausible, except the constitutional one, which is all stuff, and in which none of those who urge it are sincere; on the other hand, the former precedents do not apply in this case. The best argument for it is, that Raglan wants trained men as soon as possible, and complains that they send nothing but boys, who are of little use at first, and who die in great numbers under the hardships and privations the climate and the operations inflict on them. Not only were the Government totally unconscious of the opposition they should encounter, but, when they found the steam was getting up, they neglected to enter into such explanations and make out such a case as might, if well done, have extinguished dissension in the beginning. All this displays a want of prudence and foresight, for in a matter of such importance it is not enough to say that they did not expect any fault to be found with their proposal, and they ought to have employed some means to see what was likely to be thought of it before they committed themselves to it. They ought to have ascertained how it was to be carried into effect, and if they could count upon its success, and to be able to give Parliament some assurance of it, instead of saying they had taken no initiative steps out of affected deference to constitutional scruples, and knew not how they were to get the men they are asking for. It seems the general opinion of their own friends that they have mismanaged their case, and plunged into a difficulty they might have avoided.
The best way of avoiding it would have been to raise a regiment or two without applying to Parliament at all, mustered and arrayed them at Malta or at Heligoland, or wherever they pleased out of England, and sent them off as an experiment to the Crimea. Then, if they had done good service, and Raglan had expressed his satisfaction and asked for more, they might have raised any number and landed them here without cavil or objection; but to have adopted this course they must have seen the necessity of feeling their way, which not one of them did. The great complaint now is the want of organisation and good arrangement in the Crimea and generally at and about the seat of war, the confusion that has taken place in forwarding and distributing supplies, and the want of all expedients for facilitating the service in its various branches. There is much truth in all this, but the responsibility for it rests upon Raglan, who, if he had been of a prompt and energetic character, would have looked to these things, seen what was wanting, and have taken care to provide everything and set the necessary machinery in motion. He had carte blanche from the Government as to money and everything else, and, if he had concerted what was necessary with Stratford, and insisted on his exerting himself, I believe none of the complaints would have been made, and none of the deficiencies have been found. This is what the Duke of Wellington would have done, and his despatches are full of proofs that it is what he was always doing.
December 24th.—The third reading of the Enlistment Bill carried by 38, after a very fine speech from Bright, consisting of a part of his letter with its illustrations. In my opinion this speech was unanswerable, and no attempt was made to answer it. He was very severe on both Lord John and Palmerston. It is impossible that such reasoning as Bright's should not make some impression in the country; but I do not think any reasoning however powerful, or any display of facts however striking, can stem the torrent of public opinion, which still clamours for war and is so burning with hatred against Russia that no peace could be deemed satisfactory, or, even tolerable, that did not humble Russia to the dust and strip her of some considerable territory. Yesterday the 'Times' ventured on an article against Raglan as the cause of the disorder and confusion and consequent privations which prevail in the army. Delane wrote to me about it, and said he was aware he should be bitterly reviled for speaking these truths. I agree entirely with what he said, and see no reason why the saddle should not be put upon the right horse.
The Grove, December 31st, 1854.—The last day of one of the most melancholy and disastrous years I ever recollect. Almost everybody is in mourning, and grief and despair overspread the land. At the beginning of the year we sent forth an army amidst a tumult of joyous and triumphant anticipation, and everybody full of confidence and boasting and expecting to force the Emperor Nicholas in the shortest possible time humbly to sue for peace, and the only question was, what terms we should vouchsafe to grant him, and how much of his dominions we should leave him in possession of. Such presumptuous boasting and confidence have been signally humbled, and the end of this year sees us deploring the deaths of friends and relations without number, and our army perishing before the walls of Sebastopol, which we are unable to take, and, after bloody victories and prodigies of valour, the Russian power hardly as yet diminished or impaired. All last week I was at Hatchford with Lord Grey, when we did nothing but talk over the war, its management and mismanagement, Raglan, etc. Grey's criticisms are clever and not unfair, far from favourable to the Government, but detesting Derby, of whom he has the worst opinion, formed from a very ancient date and upon long experience of his character and conduct. Grey's idea is that there has been much mismanagement here and still greater on the spot, and that Raglan is quite incompetent and, as far as we can see, nobody else any better. The opinion about Raglan appears to be rapidly gaining ground, and the Ministers have arrived at the same conclusion.
I came here yesterday to meet Cowley, come over for a few days from Paris, and to have a talk with him and Clarendon. Cowley says that the alliance between the two countries is very hollow, and in fact there is nobody in France really friendly to us except the Emperor, Persigny, and perhaps Drouyn de Lhuys. The Emperor is bent on pursuing the war with vigour, and is sensible of the importance to himself of the French flag being triumphant. I asked him what they thought of our armies and our generals; he said from the Emperor downwards they had the highest admiration for the wonderful bravery of the troops, but the greatest contempt for the military skill of the commanders, and for all our arrangements and savoir faire. He told us the following anecdote as a proof of the blundering way in which our affairs are conducted. Newcastle wrote to him lately to beg he would ask the French Government to give us a model of certain carts their army used in the Crimea, the like of which our people there had applied to him for. The French Minister replied that he could give drawings, but had no model; but at the same time he advised us not to think of having similar ones, as these carts are so ill adapted for the purpose that they had discarded them, and had ordered others and better ones to be made, which were now in course of construction at Malta. So that we propose to get these machines without finding out whether they are suitable or not, while the French supply themselves with the proper article in our own territory.
I find from Clarendon that he is not only fully alive to Raglan's inefficiency, but has all along suspected it, and now the Government seem to have the same conviction; still they can take no step in the matter, for he has done nothing and omitted nothing so flagrantly as to call for or justify his recall, and if they were to recall him they do not know where to look for a better man to replace him. The war has hitherto failed to elicit any remarkable abilities or special aptitude for war, except in one instance, that of Captain Butler, the defender of Silistria, a young man of remarkable promise who, if he had lived, would probably have done great things and have risen to distinction.
Canrobert writes to his Government that he hopes soon to attempt the assault, but the Emperor and M. Vaillant by no means approve of it, and have sent him orders not actually prohibiting it, but enjoining caution in such a manner as will most probably effectually deter him from doing anything. They all think that the capture of the place could only be achieved (if at all) at a great cost of life, and that the captors could not hold it for many hours, as they would be pounded from the Northern forts which entirely command the place.
We discussed Austria and what she will do when the Russian answer comes to the last communication of the Conference at Vienna, and what she can do. Even if she recalls her ambassador from St. Petersburg and declares war, Cowley thinks she will never cross bayonets with the Russians or fire a shot unless attacked; and he believes, on what appear good grounds, that if any fighting takes place between the Austrians and the Russians, the former will get beaten, and that the Russian army is much the best of the two. This is the reverse of the general notion, but it seems that the Austrian officers themselves are of that opinion. It is no wonder, therefore, that they have no mind to go to war and to encounter this danger to accommodate us, whom they still cordially hate on many accounts, but especially for the Haynau affair, which still rankles in their hearts and in which they think their uniform was insulted. ? propos of this, Clarendon told me that the Queen was talking to him very lately about this affair, and told him that she had entreated Palmerston at the time to write some expression of regret to the Austrian Government, but that nothing would induce him to do it, and he never did.
I asked Clarendon what was Palmerston's present tone about the war. He said he was very uneasy about the army and its condition, but just as confident as ever as to the final result of the war, and as lofty in his ideas of the terms of peace we should exact from Russia. He is all for restoring the Crimea to Turkey, and, what is more, he has persuaded the Emperor Napoleon to embrace that opinion. As usual, he never sees any difficulty in anything he wishes to do. I told Cowley and Clarendon what Grey said—viz. that he agreed entirely with Bright's letter, and that the war might have been avoided by either of the two courses—to have told the Emperor of Russia in the beginning we would make war on him if he persisted, and compelled to understand that we really meant it, or to have forced the Turks to accept the Vienna Note; and, in either case, war would have been avoided, but that, the Cabinet itself being divided, everything was done in a spirit of compromise, and a middle course adopted which led to all the mischief. Cowley answered the first alternative and Clarendon the second. Cowley said that one of the great difficulties of the British Government was to secure concert with the French, and to explain their own conduct without hurting the susceptibility of their allies or divulging what passed between the two Governments. The French were perpetually blowing hot and cold, with a false air of vigour superior to our's at one moment, and at another wanting to do what our Ministers would have been torn to pieces for consenting to. For instance, in spite of us they would send their fleet to the Dardanelles to support the Turks, and afterwards they proposed to send the two fleets to Constantinople to compel the Sultan to sign the Vienna Note. Cowley told me this war in its present shape and with these vast armaments had gone on insensibly and from small beginnings, nobody could well tell how. In the first instance, the Emperor told Cowley he had no intention of sending any land forces to the East, and when we proposed to him to despatch there a small corps of 5,000 English and 10,000 French he positively declined. Soon after Sir John Burgoyne was sent to examine and report on the state of the country, and he gave an opinion that it would be desirable to send such a force to occupy a fortified position at Gallipoli in case of the Russians making a sudden attack with their fleet on Constantinople, in which case our fleets might be in some danger. Cowley took him to the Emperor, to whom he told his story. The Emperor said he thought his reasons good, and this was a definite and tangible object, and he would send the troops. When Raglan was offered the command of the forces we were to send out, he said he would not go with less than 20,000 men; and when we agreed to send this force, the French said if we sent 20,000 they must send 40,000, and so the expedition began, and it has since swelled to its present magnitude—our's in consequence of the clamour here and pressure from without, and their's to keep pace with our's in relative proportions. With regard to the Vienna Note, Clarendon said Stratford never would have let the Turks sign it, and if they had recalled him the Cabinet here would have been broken up, Palmerston would have gone out, Stratford would have come home frantic and have proclaimed to the whole country that the Turks had been sacrificed and betrayed, and the uproar would have been so great that it would have been impossible to carry out the intention. I think the first answer is more weighty than the last, and that the popular clamour and Palmerston's secession ought to have been encountered at whatever hazard rather than persist in the fatal course which could hardly fail to lead, and did eventually lead, us into this deplorable war.
CHAPTER VIII.
Lord John's Views on the Ministry—Gloomy Prospects—Attacks on Lord Raglan—Russian and Prussian Diplomacy—Lord Palmerston more in favour—French View of the British Army—Russian Negotiations—Lord John Russell in Paris—Conference at Vienna—Lord Raglan unmoved—Terms proposed to Russia—Failure of the Duke of Newcastle—Hesitation of Austria and France—Deplorable State of the Armies—Chances of Peace—Meeting of Parliament—Further Negotiations—Lord John Russell resigns—Ministers stay in—The Debate on Roebuck's Motion—Resignation of Lord Aberdeen—Lord John Russell's real Motives—Lord Derby sent for—and fails—Wise Decision of the Queen—Ministerial Negotiations—Lord Palmerston sent for—The Peelites refuse to join—Lord Palmerston forms a Government—Lord Palmerston's Prospects—Lord John Russell sent to Vienna—Lord Palmerston in the House of Commons—General Alarm—Difficulties of Lord Palmerston—The Peelites secede—Lord John accepts the Colonial Office—Sir George Lewis Chancellor of the Exchequer—Death of the Emperor Nicholas of Russia—Lord Palmerston supposed to be a weak Debater—Weakness of the Government—Fresh Arrangements—The Budget—The Press.
January 2nd, 1855.—I received yesterday a letter from the Duke of Bedford relating to the views and position of Lord John Russell. He had talked over his position with the Duke, disclaimed any wish to be again Prime Minister, but desired Lord Lansdowne should be in the post; that he liked personally both Aberdeen and Newcastle but thought them unfit for the emergency. He had proposed that Palmerston should be War Minister but was overruled, and now (the Duke asks) what is he to do if a vote of censure on the management of the war is proposed in the House of Commons, thinking as he does that it has been mismanaged? He would willingly break up this Government, which he really thinks a very bad one (what he wrote to Clarendon being his deliberate opinion), if he could see a chance of a better being substituted, and if he thought Derby could carry on the war more efficiently, which he does not. This letter is a complete reply to the objection Clarendon urged against Palmerston's being War Minister, for if Lord John himself wished it, nobody else could well object. He ought to have insisted on it, and, if he had, it must have been done.
Nothing can wear a gloomier aspect than affairs do at home and abroad—the Government weak, unpopular, dispirited, and divided, the army in the Crimea in a deplorable state, and the prospects of the war far from brilliant, no confidence in the commanding officers there, and no likelihood of finding more competent ones, everybody agreeing that till we have 150,000 men in the Crimea we cannot count on taking Sebastopol, and the difficulty of ever assembling such a force appearing very great. So far as I can collect, the violent articles which the 'Times' emits day after day have excited general resentment and disgust. They overdo everything and, while they are eternally changing their course, the one they follow for the moment they follow with an outrageous violence which shocks everybody. But as those who complain most of the 'Times' still go on reading it, the paper only gets more rampant and insolent, for as long as its circulation is undiminished it does not care what anybody thinks or says of it.
January 4th.—I wrote the Duke an answer with my opinion on Lord John's position and obligations, which has elicited another from him this morning. He says that it was a few weeks ago that John made a formal proposal to Aberdeen that Palmerston should replace Newcastle at the War Department. Aberdeen desired time to consider, and then refused. Subsequently the matter was renewed, when Palmerston himself objected, and then it necessarily ended. The Duke thinks that Lord John will not now stir it again, and will make up his mind to go on, and to defend his Government in the House of Commons. He consulted Sir George Grey, Lord Lansdowne, and Panmure, and they all advised him not to resign. It is strange that while this is imparted to me 'very confidentially,' and I had heard nothing of it before, it is currently reported, and stated positively in the 'Morning Herald,' that Lord John and others, mentioned by name, have insisted on Newcastle's being turned out. That some part of what has occurred has got out is clear, and I incline to think that some of his satellites have set to work, and that, by way of assisting Lord John's object, they have given notice of what was going on to some of the Derbyites. There is a mysterious allusion to some impending event in the 'Press' on Saturday last, which looks very like this.
The 'Times' goes on against Raglan with greater vehemence every day, and will not be restrained by any remonstrances. Evans has put himself in communication with Delane (though certainly having no hand in these attacks) and has sent him an account of his having addressed a letter to Canrobert many days before the battle of Inkerman for the purpose of getting him to assist in taking precautionary measures to resist the attack he was persuaded the Russians would make, and Canrobert's answer, in which he says that his means are curtailed by the necessity of providing for the defence of Balaklava, and of extending his line and making dispositions 'dans l'int?r?t de la situation commune,' but that he has ordered Bosquet to move nearer to Evans' division, and to be in readiness if anything should happen. There was a passage omitted in the printed letter of Evans to Raglan in which he alludes to the neglect of the precautionary measures he had recommended.
Gortschakoff has declared the Emperor of Russia will accept the first, second, and fourth articles of the four points, and will consider of the third. This may mean that he really wishes to make peace, or only be done for the sake of Austria, and to give her a pretext for not declaring against him. Clarendon is satisfied with Usedom, but not at all with his proposals. He says the King of Prussia has sent him to try and make a treaty with France and England entirely out of jealousy and mortification at Austria having made one, but he does not propose one similar to the Austrian Treaty, only a defensive one. Clarendon says the King in his heart hates Russia and winces under the influence he submits to, that he is indignant at the insults which have been heaped on him by his Imperial brother-in-law, and the contumely with which he has been treated, but, being physically and politically a coward, he has not energy to shake off the yoke he has suffered to be imposed on him.
Aldenham, January 6th.—I came here to-day. I saw Cowley yesterday, who has been to Windsor, and tells me that he finds by conversations he has had with Stockmar that the Queen is much softened towards Palmerston and no longer regards him with the extreme aversion she did. On the other hand, she is very angry with John Russell, and this is, of course, from knowing what he has been doing, and resentment at his embarrassing and probably breaking up the Government. This relaxation in her feelings towards Palmerston is very important at this moment, and presents the chance of an alternative which, if this Government falls, may save her from Derby and his crew, whom she cordially detests. I hear Newcastle is very low, as well he may be, for no man was ever placed in so painful a position, and it is one from which it is impossible for him to extricate himself. When the Government goes to pieces, as I am persuaded it will, the Queen is very likely to send for Palmerston, and he and Ellenborough, as War Minister, might make a Government that would probably stand during the war, and which in present circumstances the House of Commons and the country could not but support. My notion is that Lord John would not take any office, but would support Palmerston, and advise all his friends and followers to do so. I know no reason why Ellenborough should not act with anybody, and many of the present Government might stay in, and certain changes be made which would let in more Whigs, and so conciliate that party, while the Conservatives would abstain from supporting any Government which did not contain Aberdeen and Newcastle. Gladstone might be a difficulty; Clarendon would be none, for he and Palmerston have pulled very well together, and I have no doubt Palmerston would be very happy to keep him. This opens a new prospect, and one very preferable to having Derby and his friends in office again.
I asked Cowley about Canrobert's confidential letters to his Government on the state of our army of which I had heard. He said it was very true, and he had seen several of these letters, in which Canrobert said that nothing could exceed his admiration of the British soldiers, but he was convinced the army would disappear altogether, for their organisation and management were deplorable; and he entreated his Government, if they possibly could, to interpose in the interest of the common cause to procure some amelioration of the organisation, without which nothing could save the army from destruction. The Emperor, Cowley said, never mentioned our troops or commanders to him except in terms of respect and with expressions of his admiration, but he knew that to others he spoke in a very different tone, and said that our army was commanded by an old woman.
January 12th.—I returned to town last night. The Emperor of Russia's acceptance of the four points, as interpreted by us, of course excites hopes of peace, but I think few people are sanguine as to the result. It is suspected to be only a dodge to paralyse the action of Austria, but unless there was some secret concert with Austria, which is not likely, I cannot see what Russia is to gain by accepting conditions which she does not really mean to abide by. Such conduct could only deceive the Allies for a short time, and, as there is no question of any suspension of military operations, nothing would be gained in that respect, while as soon as some decisive test of the Emperor's sincerity was applied, his real meaning must be made manifest, and then not only would the acharnement of the Western Powers be increased, but it would be quite impossible for Austria not to join the Coalition, and to act verily and indeed against Russia. These reasons would induce me to put faith in the Russian announcement; on the other hand, it is barely credible that the Emperor should consent to the sacrifice of Sebastopol in the present state of the campaign, and with the almost certainty that we cannot take it for many months to come, if at all.
John Russell is gone to Paris, not for any political object, but merely to see one of his wife's sisters; but his journey there and conversations with the Emperor may not be without some consequences. I hear almost daily from the Duke of Bedford on the subject of John's conduct, the conduct of the war, and the state of the Government. For the present he appears to desist from doing anything to make an explosion. The curious thing is that the public, and particularly the Derbyite, newspapers should be so well informed as they are of what is going on. Though the immediate danger of a break up seems to be over, I still think the animus Lord John exhibits, the manifold difficulties of the Government, and their undoubted though unjust unpopularity, will before long break them to pieces.
January 14th.—I met Clarendon last night and had a talk about affairs at home and abroad. John Russell at Paris is satisfied with his conversation with the Emperor, who agreed that we could make no peace but one which would be glorious for us. Clarendon does not believe the Emperor of Russia really means to sacrifice Sebastopol, and thinks when he sent his acceptance of the four points he was not apprised of what had passed in the Conference, which was merely verbal. Gortschakoff, in a passion, said, 'I suppose you mean to limit our naval force, or to dismantle Sebastopol, or both;' to which they replied, 'Yes'; but nothing was put in writing to this effect. This makes a great difference, but I do not despair. There is a great question about a negotiator, and the Queen and Prince want Clarendon himself to go. He refused point blank; he does not like to leave it to Westmorland alone. I suggested Canning, but he thought Canning had not had experience enough, and that it ought to be a Cabinet Minister, and asked, 'Why not Palmerston?' I objected the difficulty of relying on him, his hatred of Austria, and the terror he would inspire; and I said Granville might do, but that I saw no reason why he should not go himself if he had reason to think it was likely to succeed, though I would not go merely to return re infect?. We then talked of Lord John and of Newcastle. He said that Newcastle is exceedingly slow, and has a slow mind, but that there is no case whatever for turning him out, and he cannot be blamed for the failures in matters of detail, and as for the great measures the responsibility belongs alike to all. Lord John never is and never will be satisfied without being again Prime Minister, which is impossible. I said the Duke of Bedford assured me that his brother did not now want to be Prime Minister. 'What does he want then?—to retire altogether?' 'Yes,' said Clarendon, 'that is his intense selfishness; utterly regardless of the public interests, or of what may happen, he wants to relieve himself from the responsibility of a situation which is not so good as he desires, and to run away from his post at a moment of danger and difficulty. If we had some great success—if Sebastopol were taken, for example—we should hear no more of his retirement.' As matters are, however, Clarendon thinks very ill of them abroad and at home. This disposition of Lord John's keeps the Government in constant hot water, and no confidence can be placed in Raglan, while it is impossible to find anybody who would, as far as we can judge, do any better.
The Court are exceedingly annoyed and alarmed at Raglan's failure; the Prince showed Clarendon (or told him of) a letter from Colonel Steele, who said that he had no idea how great a mind Raglan really had, but that he now saw it, for in the midst of distresses and difficulties of every kind in which the army was involved he was perfectly serene and undisturbed, and his health excellent! Steele meant this as a panegyric, and did not see that it really conveyed a severe reproach. The conviction of his incapacity for so great a command gains ground every day; he has failed in those qualities where everybody expected he would have succeeded best, even those who thought nothing of his military genius. But, having learnt what he knows of war under the Duke, he might at least have known how he carried on war, and have imitated his attention to minute details and a general supervision of the different services, seeing that all was in order and the merely mechanical parts properly attended to on which so much of the efficiency as well as of the comfort of the army depended.[1]
[1] [It may be proper to remark that a different and far more favourable view of Lord Raglan's capacity as a General will be found infra at the beginning of Chapter XII. of this Journal, upon the evidence of Sir Edmund Lyons, who was entirely in the confidence of the Commander-in-Chief.]
January 19th.—We are still uncertain as to the real intentions of the Emperor of Russia, and whether he means to accept the terms offered by the Allies; but my own impression is that he will not accept them in our sense, and that he never will consent to the sacrifice of Sebastopol till we have taken the place and destroyed the fortifications, thereby rendering its dismantling a fait accompli. There is certainly nothing in the present state of our affairs which warrants our lofty pretensions, and the proposal of terms so humiliating to the Emperor. The only possible grounds that can be imagined for his acceptance are, his own knowledge of the state of his own country and of the resources he can command for carrying on the war, and a dispassionate and farsighted calculation of the disposition and of the resources of his opponents. It is not impossible that he may foresee that he must eventually succumb in a contest so unequal and in which the number of his enemies increases every day. He may deem it better to make certain sacrifices now, with the view of being able before long to retrieve his losses, than to expose himself to the chance and great probability of being obliged to make much greater sacrifices hereafter, and such as it will be more difficult for him to repair. The Duke of Bedford tells me that Aberdeen and Clarendon are both hopeless of peace, and that Lord John and Palmerston do not consider it so absolutely hopeless; Aberdeen says the negotiations will not last half an hour.
The accounts from the army are as bad as possible; one-third of it is in the hospitals, and the quays of Balaklava are loaded with enormous stores of every kind, which it was impossible to transport to the camp. Very intelligent people therefore entertain the greatest apprehension of some catastrophe occurring whenever the severity of the winter, which has hitherto been comparatively mild, sets in. The best security is in the equally distressed state of the Russians, and in fact nothing but this can account for their having left us alone so long.
The Duke of Bedford and I talked over the state of affairs here, and the political possibilities in the event of this Government falling to pieces or being compelled to resign. We both desire any arrangement rather than another Derby Government, and we agree in thinking that on the whole the best would be for Lord Lansdowne to undertake the formation of a Government, if he can be persuaded to do so, which does not appear wholly impossible. This would satisfy Lord John, who would then remain in his present office, half a dozen of the present Cabinet would go out, some Whigs might replace them, and the thing would undoubtedly go on for a time. It is impossible for Newcastle to continue to conduct the war, with the universal clamour there is against him and the opinion of his own colleagues (at least of such of them as I know the opinions of) that he is unfit for the post. He has two very great faults which are sufficient to disqualify him: he is exceedingly slow, and he knows nothing of the qualifications of other men, or how to provide himself with competent assistants; nor has he any decision or foresight. He chose for his under-secretaries two wholly incompetent men who have been of no use to him in managing and expediting the various details of the service, and he has a rage for doing everything himself, by which means nothing is done, or done so tardily as to be of no use. Then all the subordinate Boards are miserably administered, and the various useless, inefficient, or worn out officers have been suffered to remain at their posts, to the enormous detriment of the service. The genius of Lord Chatham or the energy and will of the Duke of Wellington would have failed with such a general staff here, and with such a Commander-in-Chief as Hardinge, and with the fain?antise of Raglan.
January 20th.—It is only by degrees one can unravel the truth in political affairs. John Russell told me last night that Austria has never given in her adhesion to our condition of making the destruction of Sebastopol a sine qu? non of peace. She joins us in insisting on the 'faire cesser la pr?potence,' but the means of accomplishing this remain to be discussed. This is very different from what I had imagined, and makes it anything but certain that she will join her forces to our's, if the negotiations fail in consequence of our demands. We are now endeavouring to bring the Court of Vienna into an agreement with us as to the conditions to be required, and it is no easy matter to get the Cabinet to agree upon the wording of the communications we make to her. This arises from the necessity of looking to the effect of what will appear in the Blue Books. Blue Books, Parliamentary discussions, and the Press tie up the hands of a Government, fetter its discretion and deliberate policy, and render diplomatic transactions (especially with Governments whose hands are more free) excessively difficult. Granville told me yesterday morning that the course of Russia had been more straightforward than that of England and France, and this morning he reminded me of having said so, and added that we were in a great diplomatic mess, France always finessing and playing a game of her own; and I infer from what he said that, having got all she can out of us, she is now coquetting with Austria, and disposed to defer to her wishes and objects, and to be less exigeante towards Russia. This is only of a piece with what Clarendon has often said to me about France and her way of dealing with us; however, if France will only insist on making peace on plausible terms, and with the semblance of its being an honourable and consistent peace, we cannot do otherwise than acquiesce in her determination, and if we only follow the lead she takes the public here must needs be satisfied. This is Granville's own idea, as it is mine, and God grant that affairs may take this turn, and so we may get out of the tremendous scrape we are in, the escape from which will be cheaply purchased by the fall of the Government—a consequence that is almost certain if it does not happen before anything can be done.
Day after day the accounts from the Crimea represent a more deplorable state of things, entirely confirmative of Canrobert's statements to his own Government, and it is difficult to read them and not apprehend some fatal catastrophe. We know nothing of the state of the Russians either within or without Sebastopol, and this ignorance is not one of the least remarkable circumstances in this war, but we must conclude either that their condition is as bad as our's, and that they are unable to attack us, or that their policy is to let the winter do its work, and that they do not think it necessary for them to fight sanguinary battles with very doubtful results when disease is ravaging the allied army and producing effects as advantageous for them as the most complete victories could do, as surely, only more gradually.
January 22nd.—Every day one looks with anxiety to see and to hear whether the chances of peace look well or ill, and at present they look very ill. Clarendon seems to set his face against it—that is, he considers it hopeless; and it is not promising that the negotiations should be under the management of one who has no hopes of bringing them to a successful issue, and whose despair of it evidently arises from his determination to exact conditions that there is no chance of obtaining. I hear, too, this morning, that the instructions to Bourqueney are to be as exigeant as possible—not very wise pretensions anyhow, but they rather indicate the tone adopted by England than the real intentions of France, for it is one thing to make great demands and another to persist in them. It is, however, idle to speculate on the progress of a negotiation which must be so largely influenced by the operations and events of the war. Parliament meets tomorrow, and I think a very short time will elapse before the fate of the Government is decided by some vote about the conduct of the war. I think the Government themselves desire it, and, conscious of the state of public opinion and of the deplorable state of affairs, and most of them thinking there has been great and fatal mismanagement, they wish the question to be decided, would not be sorry to be driven out by an adverse vote, and consider that it would be a better and more respectable way of ending than by those internal dissensions, which, like a cancer, are continually undermining them. John Russell sees nothing but difficulties in the formation of another Government of a Whig complexion including a large portion of the present Ministers, and says that he does not think Lord Lansdowne would, or that he or Palmerston could accomplish it. He means now to stand by his colleagues, to accept his share of responsibility, and defend what has been done.
January 23rd.—Parliament meets to-day, and probably no time will be lost in attacking the Government, but it is impossible yet to know whether they will be harassed by a continual succession of skirmishes and bitter comments on details, or whether some grand and decisive assault will be made. The general impression is that the War Department cannot remain in Newcastle's hands, and if he cannot be got rid of without the whole Ministry going to pieces it must so end. I think this is pretty much the opinion of the Ministers themselves; and though I believe they all, or most of them, personally like him, they seem, so far as I can see, to be agreed that he is unequal to his post.
With regard to peace, the prospect looks anything but bright. The negotiations will not begin till we receive positive information as to the meaning of the Emperor of Russia in accepting the four points. Some weeks ago Clarendon wrote a despatch to Westmorland, in which he stated explicitly the meaning we attached to the four points, but this has never been put officially before the Emperor, that we know of. Buol acquiesced, as I understood, in our explanation, but John Russell distinctly told me that Austria had never signified her concurrence in making the demolition of Sebastopol a sine qu? non condition. Now, however, some fresh communication has been made by Austria to Russia, and we will not begin the negotiation until Austria shall have signified to us that the Emperor's acceptance is such as will warrant us in negotiating. I am not sufficiently acquainted with all the details to form a conclusive opinion, but, as far as I can see, we have been hanging off from being perfectly explicit, and have never yet come to a complete understanding with Austria, much less with Russia, and I am afraid of our Ministers committing themselves in Parliament by some declarations and professions of intentions which may make peace impossible and break up the negotiations at once, for as to Russia consenting to dismantle Sebastopol, I look upon it as impossible, and absurd to expect it. I earnestly hope that Bourqueney may be instructed to come to an understanding with Austria, and that, if we insist on terms impossible to obtain, our two Allies may compel us to give way, or leave us to fight the battle alone. The only thing quite certain is that we are in a state of the utmost doubt, danger, and perplexity at home and abroad, all of which is owing to our own egregious folly and unskilfulness, and the universal madness which has pervaded the nation.
January 24th.—The Government is at an end, or at least it probably will be before the end of the day. The Duke of Bedford has just been to me to tell me that last night, after returning from the House of Commons, Lord John wrote a letter to Aberdeen to resign his office, and he will not attend the Cabinet to-day. Nobody knows it but Aberdeen himself, and I am not permitted to tell Granville even, but it will be announced to the Cabinet this morning. The immediate cause of Lord John's resignation is Roebuck's motion, of which he gave notice last night, for a Committee to inquire into the conduct of the war; it is intended as a hostile motion, and would have been turned into a vote of censure and want of confidence. Besides this, it seems Hayter had told Lord John that the aspect of the House was bad, and members of the Government party disinclined to attend. Accordingly, he said he could not and would not face the motion; Graham and Sidney Herbert might defend the conduct of the war, but he could not. Heaven only knows what will occur. Lord John took no time to consider, but sent his resignation at once, the moment he returned from the House. I told the Duke that I thought he had made himself obnoxious to very just reproach, running away from such a motion, and explaining (as he must do) that he could not defend the conduct of the war. He will naturally be asked how long he has been dissatisfied with its management, and why he did not retire long ago. The Duke said he was aware of this, but he endeavoured to make out that the case bore some analogy to that of Lord Althorp in 1834, when he resigned in consequence of a motion of O'Connell's. But this was altogether different. Nothing can, in my opinion, justify Lord John, and his conduct will, if I am not mistaken, be generally condemned, and deprive him of the little consideration and influence he had left. It has been vacillating, ungenerous, and cowardly, for after all, in spite of errors and mistakes, the conduct of the war admits of a defence, at least as to many parts of it, and it would have been far better to stand up manfully and abide the result of the battle in Parliament, than to shirk the fight and leave his colleagues to deal with the difficulty as best they may, trying to escape from the consequences of a responsibility which nothing he can say or do can enable him to shake off.