The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition / An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics

The essay reassesses probability as a discipline of inductive logic concerned with principles of evidence rather than a branch of abstract mathematics. It critiques the dominance of formal, puzzle-like examples and argues for a philosophical grounding of probabilistic concepts, delineating the types of questions appropriate for probabilistic treatment and their relation to inductive inference. Practical topics include the interpretation of chance, laws of error, the method of least squares, and applications to testimonial credibility, moral and social science, and statistical practice, with emphasis on clarifying foundations and avoiding misleading examples.