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The psychology of speculation

Chapter 7: THE DANGERS OF INVERTED PYRAMIDS
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About This Book

The author examines psychological and social forces that drive stock market speculation, arguing that personal impulses, sentiment, and panic often override rational principles. He surveys the distracting power of continuous price quotations, the unsettling effects of sudden gains and losses, and the lure of gambling-like frenzies, bogus securities, pyramiding, and over-acquisitiveness. Drawing on anecdotes and practical observations, chapters offer warnings about common misjudgments, the limits of technical rules, and the ways market mood can defeat sound plans, concluding that disciplined self-knowledge and experience are essential safeguards against speculative ruin.

THE DANGERS OF INVERTED PYRAMIDS

It was a wise custom of the ancients to build their pyramids with the big end on the ground; but modern builders of pyramids in the stock market have reversed this time-honored practice, and most of them build their stock pyramids with the heavy end up; therefore they invariably topple over after reaching a certain height. For example, when a certain stock known as Lake Copper was selling at $5 a share a trader bought five hundred shares, expecting to double his money on it, as the stock was “tipped” to go up to $10. When it reached that figure, instead of selling he bought another hundred, and put in an order to sell the whole lot at $15 a share. Before it reached his selling price he cancelled the order and raised it to $25; again cancelling it and buying another hundred at $25. By this time he was convinced that it would go to $50. He bought five hundred more at $40, then the stock dropped back, and fearing he might lose all his gains he sold a thousand shares at $30. Although he had lost $5000 on the last five hundred shares he still had a profit of $4500, less commission, after deducting the full cost of the two hundred shares still remaining. The stock recovered to $50, and encouraged by the “street” gossip about rich ore bodies being uncovered, with accompanying reports that the stock would be cheap at $75, he bought back at $50 the thousand shares he had sold at $30. At $60 he sold five hundred shares, which he afterwards repurchased, with five hundred more, at $75. By this time the speculators had discovered that the mine was one of the richest prospects in the Lake region; it was rumored that the company’s stock was being bought for control by a large mining company whose property it joined, and the stock was “tipped” for $150. Many surmised it to be another Calumet & Hecla, which had sold at $12 a share, and afterwards at $1000. From here on up he “pyramided,” buying a hundred shares at every point advance, and wisely protecting his profits with “stop loss” orders a few points under the market price. Once the market reacted and five hundred shares of his stock were sold on “stop,” after which the price quickly recovered, and being assured that the stock had been hammered down for the sole purpose of “shaking him out,” he bought back the five hundred shares at five points higher than he had sold it. To prevent another similar coup he cancelled all stop loss orders and took his chances in the open market, confident that he could not be beaten as long as he was trading on “velvet” with an original investment risk of only $2500. When the stock reached $85 someone half convinced him that it was time to cash in his profits, and he put in an order to sell the whole lot at $90, including the additional shares he should buy on the scale order up to that point. When the price approached $90 he cancelled the selling order and put it in at $100. Later the price reached $94.50, and he had thirty-two hundred shares, on which he could have cashed in a fortune. But what was the use cashing in then, when he was in a fair way to making half a million, or even more? After reaching $94.50 the stock began to decline, and here the top-heaviness of the pyramid commenced to manifest itself, for with every downward point he was losing $3200. When the price got down to $75 his broker demanded that he either put up more margin or lighten his load by selling a thousand shares or so. The stock continued to go down, and again the broker called on him for more margin. Soon after putting up all the money he had, and all he could borrow, the broker was obliged to close out the account to protect himself. The stock afterwards went down to ninety cents a share.