The amount of seed used per acre will, of course, vary with the species and the method used, and the quality of the seed. The following table indicates the approximate quantity of seed of good average quality required per acre for three different methods, the average cost when collected in fairly large quantities, and the number of seed per pound:

The total cost, too, will vary widely, not only because of the different quantities of seed used but also because of the great extent to which the methods are varied to suit the conditions occurring upon the area. Simple broadcasting without any preparation or treatment of the soil will not exceed 20 cents to 25 cents per acre for labor; harrowing and sowing in strips, 85 cents to $1.10 per acre, and sowing in seedspots, $2.00 to $5.00 per acre. Upon this basis the total cost per acre will approximate the figures given in the table below:

RATE OF GROWTH AND PROBABLE RETURNS

Of all factors in calculating the financial possibilities of second forest crops, the growth to be expected is the easiest to determine with fair accuracy. Future stumpage value, tax burden and fire risk are all subject to uncertain influences, but the approximate yield of a given species under given natural conditions will be the same in the future that it is now. To predict it requires only study of existing stands without being misled by the influence of conditions which will not be repeated.

On the other hand, an immense amount of misinformation is circulated because of superficial observation. Enthusiasts discovering individual trees which have made prodigious growth, or even fairly extensive stands on fertile soil with heavy rainfall, will compute sawlog yields at 40 or 50 years which are much too optimistic for general application. Others, remembering some stand they have seen in unfavorable localities, or noting shade-suppressed trees which will not be paralleled after the virgin forest is removed, are unduly discouraged. It is most essential that yield tables be made by trained observers who know how to reach the true average, and that the figures either actually come from the region to which they are to be applied or are accompanied by a systematic analysis of climatic and other conditions which permits intelligent comparison.

In calculating another yield on cut-over land, the system for an even-aged new growth, such as will follow clean cutting of Douglas fir, for example, is quite different from that necessary if the cutting amounts only to selection of the merchantable trees and leaves a fair stand of smaller ones. In the latter case, yield tables based on average acreage production are of little use because so much depends upon the character of the stand which remains on the tract in question. Here the basis must be the rate of growth of the average individual tree. An estimate by the number in each present diameter class may be made of the trees which will escape logging, showing, let us say for example, about five trees of each diameter from 6 to 12 inches, or thirty-five in all which are over 6 inches. If the growth study indicates that in 20 years there will have been added 6 inches in diameter we can estimate a crop of five trees each of classes extending from 12 to 18 inches. Actually the process will not be so simple, for the different aged trees will not grow with equal rapidity, and several other factors must be reckoned with, but the general principle is to apply rate of growth knowledge to the material on hand, and study of this material is essential.

For predicting even-aged crops resulting from entire restocking, the acquisition of necessary basic information is as difficult, or more so, but its application is far simpler. That the ground will be fully stocked by natural or artificial means must be assumed, but we can also assume that the result will be influenced only by normal locality conditions and not by accidental condition of the present forest. Therefore we use a yield table and not a growth table. This can be made by actual measurement of existing second growth stands of different ages, which proves not only the growth rate but also the number of trees which the natural shade-thinning process results in at different periods of the forest life. The chief danger of inaccuracy in such information lies in basing it on insufficient measurements or in applying it where soil or moisture conditions are greatly different. The latter error can be guarded against, however, by use of growth figures taken in conjunction with it. For example, if a yield table showing 25,000 feet to the acre at 50 years from seed is accompanied by one showing that the average stand it represents is 125 high at 50 years and its average 50-year-tree is 14 inches in diameter, little investigation is necessary to determine whether in any given locality the growth falls far above or below that.

An attempt to reproduce here any considerable number of growth and yield tables would be of doubtful use without more space than is allowed to explain how they are made and used. There are many technicalities, both mathematical and silvicultural, and unfortunately most of the available figures for the Northwest, obtained by the Forest Service, have not been generalized enough for wide popular value. This is particularly true of yield tables which necessarily require assuming standards of merchantability. While the best western white pine table assumes that by the time a new crop is cut 7-inch white pine will be salable, the best fir table was worked upon a 12-inch diameter basis. Obviously this would show an unfairly greater yield of a pine forest containing trees between 7 and 12 inches and be very misleading in calculating financial results at the same age and stumpage rates; yet without the original data there is no way of reducing both tables to the same basis. As an example, however, to indicate how the financial possibilities of second growth can be arrived at if a systematic study is made, let us take the Douglas fir figures referred to.

DOUGLAS FIR

These are exceedingly reliable. Measurements were taken by the Forest Service of practically pure fir on about 400 areas in thirty-five different age stands from 10 to 140 years old, ranging along the western Cascade foothills from the Canadian line to central Oregon. Since reforestation investment is likely to be confined mainly to the more promising opportunities, only such growth was measured as gave an average representation of the better class of the two should all the general territory covered be graded in two quality classes of all around ability to produce forests. On the other hand, care was taken not to represent the maximum of the better class, data being taken only from permanent forest land and not from rich potential agricultural land which might show unfairly rapid forest growth. The average areas were actually measured and the number, age, form, diameter growth, height growth, board foot contents, etc., of all the trees on them were accurately determined. Trees 12 inches in diameter 4-1/2 feet from the ground were considered merchantable, and it was assumed they could be used to 8 inches in the top. From this data were prepared tables and diagrams showing the average development of trees and stands under fairly favorable conditions in the region west of the Cascades.

This gave the following yield per acre:

Let us see how these figures can be used in answering the primary question of the prospective timber-grower: "Will it pay to hold my cut-over land for a second crop?"

Obviously no certain answer can be printed here, not only because no uniform stumpage prices or carrying charges can be predicted but also because individuals may differ as to what profit is necessary to make the investment "pay," so it will be necessary to analyze the situation so each may select the premises which suit his own case and judgment. The investment made by the holder of cut-over land is of two kinds; that represented by the land which otherwise he might sell, putting the proceeds at work in some other business, and the annual carrying charges which otherwise he might also invest differently. The sum obtainable by investing the money available by sale after logging, adding to it yearly the sum required for fire prevention and taxes, and compounding both at a satisfactory interest for the entire period, is practically the cost of holding the tract for any given number of years. By calculating this cost upon a basis of one acre, and dividing it by the yield board measure which the same period will produce, the cost per thousand feet of growing a second crop is arrived at.

Against this may be set the gross return from the same expected yield at any given stumpage rate. The yield at the end of a 50-year investment will not be that of a 50-year forest, however, for although the carrying cost begins at once, the new forest requires a few years to become established. No exact figure can be set for this, for some seed will sprout the first year and some blank spaces may persist several years, but in the tables to follow five years has been allowed for an average. Consequently, instead of calculating on a 28 M yield as the return at the end of 50 years, as indicated in the yield table on the preceding page, the 45-year yield of 20-1/2 M is used, and similarly for the other periods of 60, 70 and 80 years. These four rotations only will be considered here, for in less than 50 years second growth will probably be too small to be cut at the highest profit, while after 80 years the investment compounds so heavily as to make it improbable that increasing stumpage values will compensate.

Three interest rates have been used in the first table to follow: 4, 5 and 6 per cent, compound. Forest calculations at lower rates are often seen, but it is not believed that less than 5 per cent will be satisfactory to private owners and many will insist on 6 per cent. The fair standard is what the owner can make in other business today, and since he can reinvest his income in the same business, it is reasonable to figure at a compound rate. A few examples are given to show how similar calculations may be made with any set of investment and stumpage factors which appeal to individual judgment. The second table, prepared from the first, shows at a glance the price that must be received for Douglas fir to make it pay either 5 or 6 per cent compound interest under a range of sixty different conditions of original investment and annual cost.

It should be borne in mind that, although present land value is made a charge, the value of the land at the time of harvest is not considered. This value is certain to increase greatly in the long periods involved. Taxation charges will be against it as well as against the timber. Indeed much land is now held without any regard to possible second growth. It should be assumed therefore that any profit in forest investment shown will be increased by the sum obtainable for the land at the end of the same period.

Example 1: With land worth $2.50 an acre at present, and an estimated carrying charge of 3 cents a year for protection and 20 cents per taxes, what stumpage price for a 50-year crop will pay 5 per cent compound interest? 6 per cent?

Example 2: With land worth $5 an acre at present, and stumpage estimated to reach $7.00 in 60 years, what is the maximum annual carrying charge per acre which can be paid during this period and permit a 5 per cent return? A 6 per cent return?

Example 3: Assuming that stumpage will be worth $6.00 in 50 years, and that public enlightenment will keep the annual fire and tax charge from exceeding 20 cents, what price obtainable for cut-over land today, made to earn 5 per cent compound interest in some other business, is as profitable as keeping the land for a second crop? If other business would earn 6 per cent?

FUTURE STUMPAGE PRICES NECESSARY TO MAKE DOUGLAS FIR SECOND CROP PAY EITHER 5 OR 6% COMPOUND INTEREST ON INVESTMENT.

These tables bring out a number of very interesting primary facts:

1. The rate of interest demanded of the investment is one of the most important factors. This is because such long terms are involved. The charges compound with prodigious rapidity toward the last. In any other business paying 6 per cent, compound, the maximum investment per acre given in the preceding table, that of a land value of $7.50 and a 30-cent annual charge for 80 years, would earn $1,317. A 75-year forest then harvestable should have 56-1/2 M to the acre, but this would have to bring over $25 per M to pay as well. On the other hand, the same deposits earning 4 per cent would only amount to $338 in the same period which would be equaled by timber at $6 per M.

2. For similar reasons, the length of time before cutting has much to do with profit or loss. The compounding of carrying charges eventually outstrips the production of material to a degree which can be offset only by the most rapid rise of stumpage values.

3. The greater the investment, the more marked the above effect and consequently the tendency to market an inferior product. A 60-year rotation is indicated by a majority of the conditions shown.

4. A comparatively slight increase in annual tax or fire charges may make the difference between profit and loss. Roughly, stumpage must bring $1 per M more to compensate for each 10 cents an acre for taxes at 5 per cent or for 7 cents at 6 per cent.

5. If the land is salable for $5 an acre or more it cannot be made to pay 6 per cent compound interest under the most favorable conditions, unless the stumpage received exceeds $6. At $5 stumpage and with reasonable taxation it will pay 5 per cent if it escapes fire.

6. Thirty cents an acre is apparently about the maximum annual carrying charge which will permit a 6 per cent profit, even with very high stumpage prices. Consequently, while present taxes on cut-over land are seldom prohibitive, there must be reasonable certainty that excessive increase will not occur.

The carrying charges shown in the second table cover both fire protection and taxes, as by reading the 15-cent line to include a 10-cent tax and a 5-cent fire patrol. The investment charge may be used to represent sale value only, or sale value plus any expense incurred at time of logging in order to secure reproduction, such as leaving salable material in seed trees, or planting. If desired, any owner may make a similar calculation on any other valuation better fitting his own situation. The table is not intended for universal use but merely as an illustration of how forest calculations may be made.

WHITE PINE

Too much space would be required to give a similar table for all western species, even were as good yield figures available. Roughly speaking, however, western white pine, under conditions thoroughly favorable to it, may be expected to make as good a yield as Douglas fir, and the above fir table will not be far off for it. A probably higher stumpage value should offset any lesser production.

HEMLOCK

Western hemlock is of somewhat, but not much, slower growth when coming in on open land as an even-aged stand. No yield table based on the same merchantable standards as the fir table quoted has been prepared, but the following is fairly safe to include all trees 14 inches in diameter used to 12 inches in the top: At 50 years, 2 M per acre; at 60 years, 22 M; at 70 years, 33 M; at 80 years, 40 M. The absence of a 40-year figure, and the sudden jump between 50 and 60 years, is because very few hemlock trees reach 14 inches at 50 years, but a large number of 12 and 13-inch trees pass into that class during the ten years following. Any yield figures for an even-aged forest show a similar jump at the point where the stand as a whole reaches the determined minimum merchantable size. For the same reason these hemlock figures are not very far less promising than those given for fir, for at corresponding ages the latter include 12 and 13-inch trees and all trees are considered merchantable to a top diameter of 8 inches.

SPRUCE

Since no systematic study of Sitka spruce second growth has been made, it can only be predicted from knowledge of its habits that while in favorable situation it will yield as heavily as Douglas fir, in other localities its growth in early life is slower and less regular, making it less likely to produce a good crop before the carrying charges become burdensome. If this proves true, taxation rates and land values will be extremely important factors, offset to some degree by a smaller fire hazard and the probability of high stumpage.

REDWOOD

For redwood we also lack good figures for any considerable range of conditions and ages, for redwood growth which followed burns does not exist and there are no very old cuttings. Government studies on the northern California coast prove conclusively, however, that this is our most rapid growing native commercial tree. In thirty years, in fair soil, it will produce a tree of 16 inches diameter, 80 feet high, and some existing 45-year stands run 20 to 30 inches on the stump and about 100 feet high. Reckoning 14-inch trees as merchantable, to be used to 10 inches in the tops, a 25 to 30-year second growth after logging near Crescent City was found to have 2-1/2 M feet to the acre and the future increase should be very rapid. There is little question of the profit of growing redwood, provided the difficulties described elsewhere of getting a dense crop started are overcome.

PROFITABLE THINNINGS

In addition to the yield of saw timber to be expected when the second crop reaches manufacturing size, there will be a market in many cases for material obtained by thinning. It is perfectly fair to compound for the remainder of the rotation any net profit so obtained and to set it against the carrying charges. In many cases it will go far to turn an apparently losing investment into a very profitable one. Moreover, the proper thinning of growing stands not only utilizes material which would otherwise die and be lost before the main harvest, but actually improves the quality of the first yield.

In obtaining the figures previously quoted the Forest Service found that the average Douglas fir stand at 40 years contains 410 living trees, most of them between 6 and 15 inches in diameter. At 60 years there are but 265 trees, 145 having died and decayed in the 20-year interval which were suitable for ties or other small timber products. The remaining trees would have been improved by thinning to prevent this loss, for the greatest diameter growth is made when the stand is open, and the ideal is to have just the density which will get the greatest wood production and still result in proper pruning and clearing of the trees.

Commenting along this line Mr. T. T. Munger, who conducted the investigation, says:

"That thinnings are silviculturally practicable and financially profitable in the Pacific Northwest has been demonstrated. In the vicinity of Cottage Grove, Oregon, many fully stocked even-aged Douglas fir stands now about 50 years old, most of them forming a part of ranches. Many of these stands have been cut over in the last 10 years and all the material then large enough for piling or mine timber cut out. This removed about 20 per cent of the stand. At the present time many of these same stands now contain much material valuable for small piles, ties and mine timber, yet the crown canopy is as dense and the trees as close and fine quality as though no cutting had ever been done in the stand. In fact, some of the 50-year old stands have already been cut over a second time, and each time with decided profit to the owner and no damage to the forest. From one 10-acre block of second growth now 50 years old, situated 7 miles from the railroad, already 32,000 feet of mining timber and about 100 50-foot piles have been taken out, yet the stand is now in good condition, and in a few years more of the smaller trees can be removed without infringing on the yield of the final crop. The material from these thinnings was worth at the railroad about $80 per acre."

CONCLUSIONS

Throughout the preceding pages on the financial promise of timber-growing in the West, the attempt has been not to give conclusions but to state certain known facts regarding tree growth and indicate how these may be used in arriving at conclusions based largely upon the conditions and judgment of the individual owner. In many cases they will do little more than suggest further investigation necessary. The Western Forestry & Conservation Association and, doubtless, the District Foresters for the Forest Service, will be glad to discuss such work and assist if possible.

There are, however, several conservative deductions to be made:

1. The Pacific coast states contain large areas having species and climatic conditions peculiarly favorable for forest-growing as a business. The rapidity and quantity of yield insure profit under conditions which would be prohibitive elsewhere.

2. In many cases, perhaps in most, a second crop can be started with little initial expense.

3. There is much land of no value for any other purpose.

4. Even if the owner does not care to hold his land long enough for another crop, or if he is prevented from doing so at some future time by excessive taxation or other prohibition, its disposal value will be greater if it bears young forest growth than if it does not.

5. Stumpage values are certain to advance greatly and their advance will be governed largely by these factors:

a. Speculative influence necessarily accompanying the lessening of the nation's and the world's timber supply.

b. The carrying charges of fire prevention and taxation imposed by the community upon virgin timber, which, since they represent an investment which must be recouped, will either be added in the long run to the price of stumpage exactly in the measure of their severity and so transferred to the consumer, or result in rapid cutting and consequently raise the speculative value of that which escapes cutting. (This the consumer will pay also.)

c. The quantity of new timber grown.

6. It is probable that future demand for timber will reimburse the cost of growing it, be this cost high or low within reasonable limits.

7. This does not mean, however, that the timberland owner will or can generally engage in the business when the cost is excessive. While he could probably make a good profit eventually, such an investment is too heavy and prolonged to be inviting; besides there is the possibility of entire loss by fire. He will naturally compare it with other investments having less disadvantages. For example, since conditions which discourage the growing of new competing forests tend for this very reason to enhance the value of existing forests, he might invest further in the latter instead, with equal ultimate profit and with easier access to his money at any time.

8. Consequently the growing of timber is promising to the private owner only when the investment can be borne easily. Since it has three forms—land value, fire protection, and taxation—all must be moderate or, if one or more is high, the rest must be low.

9. With the fire hazard great at present, and taxation so uncertain as to require allowing for its being excessive, the initial investment must be insignificant.

10. This confines it to land of low sale value and precludes much expense to insure the second crop.

11. To secure the perpetuation of forests on the scale essential to public welfare, the public must provide the private owner better fire protection and an equitable taxation system. Or else it must purchase sufficient cut-over land and engage in forestry itself, bearing the cost and taking the risk.

12. Nevertheless there are several practical exceptions to the somewhat unfavorable situation theoretically outlined above:

(a) Many owners are warranted in holding cut-over land for some time, if not indefinitely, because of the upward trend of land values generally. Unless clearly most useful for agriculture, such land will be made more valuable by a growth of young timber. However indefinite the profit of encouraging this growth and protecting it from fire may be if the present sale value and taxes are computed against such outlay, the two latter charges are being carried anyway and are the most important ones. Merely that it cannot be proved that they can be more than offset is no reason for not trying to compensate as far as possible at slight further expense. While this may not often permit any great effort to reforest, it will usually warrant protection of the natural new growth that will follow if given a chance.

(b) Many owners would prefer to have their milling business continue indefinitely. If such have or can purchase virgin timber to carry them 50 years or more they may do well to grow a log supply to come into use at that time, even if they would not do so merely as a stumpage investment.

(c) It is highly probable that history will repeat itself in the United States, especially in the Pacific coast states where every other condition is so favorable to making forestry a great benefit to the community, and that fire and tax discouragements will be removed as soon as the public realizes the situation. The owner who anticipates this and gets his crop started first will be the first to profit from it, and since it is the compounding toward the latter end of the rotation which now appears serious, the chances are that he will not have a heavy burden before relief of this kind arrives.

(d) Every owner of virgin timber which he expects to hold uncut for 10 years or more should consider reforestation of adjacent cut-over land in the light of fire protection also. It is the inflammable, sun-dried, brake-covered openings, yearly increasing in extent, which constitute his greatest fire menace. The conversion of these into green young growth, too dense for fern and salal and destructible only by the hottest crown fires, is the best protection he can give mature timber surrounded by them. Some additional expense for a few years to accomplish this will usually be cheaper and safer than the patrol otherwise required for an indefinite period.

(e) Advance in value of the land itself, realizable when the second crop is cut, will in many cases be great enough to make an otherwise unpromising reforestation investment profitable.

HARDWOOD EXPERIMENTS

In the foregoing pages consideration has been given to the growing of native coniferous species only. There is a field, however, yet to be entered into by the timber grower in the Pacific Northwest, which gives promise of good returns. This is the growing of eastern hardwoods. As is well known, the supply of native hardwoods in this region is deficient and those occurring are of poor quality. The demand for staple hardwoods is constant, and at present can be filled only through importation from the East. Moreover, the manufacturing industry in the Pacific Northwest is as yet only in its infancy, and as this industry becomes of greater importance in the future, the demand for hardwood lumber is bound to increase. This increase in demand, coupled with the rapidly diminishing supply in the East, seems certain to create a condition under which it will be profitable to grow hardwoods commercially.

That eastern species will thrive under forest conditions in this region has not, of course, been demonstrated, but the great variety of species planted successfully as shade trees in towns and cities, and in many instances by settlers in the mountains and farming districts, together with the marked success of various fruits introduced here, would tend to indicate their adaptability to the climate. In many respects the climate along the coast of Oregon and Washington is similar to that found throughout the great hardwood region of the Southern Appalachian mountains.

Of the many species occurring in the East, several appear preëminently suited to experimentation because of their particular value in the trade and rapid growth. Hickory is one of the most valuable of eastern woods, and the supply remaining is probably least of all the important species. It is largely used in the vehicle industry, and because of the fact that the trade can use trees of small size, and even prefers "second growth" hickory to the more mature form, a crop can be grown within a comparatively short time. Shagbark or pignut are probably the best species to plant. Red oak is another species for which there is a large demand, and while it does not equal the white oak in value, its more rapid growth makes it a more desirable species to grow. The increasing scarcity of white oak has brought about the substitution of red oak for many purposes for which the more superior variety was formerly used exclusively. Black walnut is a wood highly prized in furniture manufacture, and this, coupled with its rapid growth, places it among the first rank of hardwood trees. Chestnut, white ash, tulip, poplar and black cherry are other species whose value for various purposes suggests the possible advisability of their introduction.

Much that has been said in the chapter concerning the methods of establishing coniferous woods applies equally well to hardwoods. Those species, however, whose seeds are in the form of nuts, such as hickories, black walnut, chestnuts, and oaks, are particularly adapted to propagation by direct seeding. Other species, such as ash, tulip, poplar, and black cherry, whose seeds are small, are better grown for one year in nurseries before transplanting into the field. Where plantations are started by planting the nuts directly in the field, the cost will be moderate. The nuts can be obtained in any quantity from eastern seed dealers, and their cost, together with the labor of planting them, should not exceed $4 per acre. Where the area planted is level and free from underbrush, preliminary plowing and harrowing, while adding $1.50 to $2 to the cost per acre, will add much to the success of the plantation. Cultivation during the early years of the life of the trees will also result in increased growth.