“I should like to express my heartfelt gratitude to you for sending on to me the report which contains some of the finest observations that have come to my knowledge since the outbreak of the war.

“ ... The writer lays great stress on the belief prevalent in enemy and neutral countries alike that Germany is making a bid for universal supremacy and for supremacy on the high seas—a belief which has spurred on the resistance of the enemy to the utmost, and has caused a good deal of bad feeling amongst the neutrals. I repeatedly brought this fact to the knowledge of the Chancellor and I urgently suggested to him that in some way—e.g., by an Imperial proclamation on the anniversary of the outbreak of war, or by some other suitable means—we should announce to all and sundry that such hare-brained schemes are not entertained by any responsible person or body of persons in Germany. I sincerely trust that some such steps will be taken at an early opportunity, because otherwise I do not see when the war will be over. Though not a pessimist I do not believe in taking too rosy a view of things. I envy the British because they have the courage openly to discuss in their press and parliament the reverses as well as the successes they have had.

“ ... You see I am not taking too cheerful a view of matters. I have nothing but the most enthusiastic admiration for the achievements of the German people, both at the front and at home. Although not gifted politically this people could do wonders if led by great statesmen and by great politicians.”

“I also called the Chancellor’s urgent attention to the need for dealing with the food problem during the ensuing winter, especially with relation to the price of meat.”

“ ... August 12th, 1915. The United States Ambassador, Mr. Gerard, had expressed the desire to discuss with me the question as to the advisability of suggesting that President Wilson should mediate between the belligerents. I therefore called on him on Tuesday, August 10th, and advised him to refrain from any official action in that direction, but said that I thought he might ask the President to sound opinion in Great Britain as to the chances of such peace proposals.”

“Prince Bülow will be leaving for Lucerne to-day where he intends to stay for some time, and the Prussian chargé d’affaires, Herr v. Mutius—of whom it has been alleged that the Chancellor appointed him to his post on the death of his predecessor (the excellent Herr v. Bülow, Prussian Minister to Hamburg) for the reason that he might have a watchful eye on Prince Bülow and myself—has been promptly transferred to Warsaw. Evidently the Berlin authorities now think the danger has passed, since Prince Bülow has left.”

“A remark of mine concerning the possibility of an extension of submarine warfare had, as the Chancellor had been informed, caused the Kaiser to assume that I completely shared the point of view of Admirals v. Holtzendorff and v. Tirpitz, who now recommend a submarine campaign against Great Britain on a large scale. I therefore, at the Chancellor’s request, addressed the following letter to the Kaiser:

“‘A few days ago I had occasion to discuss with Grand Admiral v. Tirpitz and Admiral v. Holtzendorff the question of a resumption of the submarine campaign.

“‘I was then given confidential information as to the number of submarines at our disposal, and I am bound to say that even if due allowance is made for the activity of the mine-seeking auxiliaries I regard the number of large submarines as insufficient for the purposes of such a finally decisive measure.

“‘The first attempt at submarine warfare proved unsuccessful on account of the insufficiency of the means employed to carry it through; and it is my humble opinion that a second attempt should only be undertaken if its success were beyond the possibility of a doubt. If this cannot be guaranteed the consequences of such a measure appear to me to be out of all proportion to the risks attached to it.

“‘I therefore beg to respectfully suggest to Your Majesty that the work of the mine-laying auxiliaries should be carried on as hitherto, and should even be extended. I also consider that the submarines should be made use of to the fullest extent of their capacity, with the proviso, however, that their employment against passenger steamers should be subject to the restrictions recently laid down by Your Majesty.

“‘When the number of the big submarines shall be sufficient effectively to cut off the British food supply, I think the time will have arrived for us to employ this weapon against Great Britain without paying regard to the so-called neutrals.

“‘I humbly apologize to Your Majesty for thus stating my views on this matter; but I am of opinion that the extreme importance of the proposed steps will be a sufficient excuse for me.’”

“If we desire to keep the Austrian fighting spirit unimpaired we must avoid at all hazards suggesting the possibility of an understanding with Italy. The Italian war is popular down to the lowest classes of the people, and the successful stand against Italy is a subject of pride and hope to all Austrians.

“People are especially proud of the Isonzo battles, but they do not shut their eyes to the uncertain prospects of a successful Austrian offensive. They really consider that Austria has gained her war aims, and the old Emperor described the military situation to Frau Kathi Schratt by saying that the war was in many respects like a game of tarock, in which the winner was not allowed to cease playing because the losers insisted upon him going on with the game so that they might have their revenge. Matters at first had been to the advantage of our enemies: the Russians had overrun Galicia, the Serbians had defeated the Austrians at Belgrade, and the French had looked upon the retreat from the Marne as a great success. Now, however, the war was all in favour of Germany and Austria, and therefore our opponents did not want to call a truce just yet.

“If this comparison which the venerable old gentleman has borrowed from his favourite game of cards is correct, the war will not be over until one side has nothing further to stake, and the decision will be brought about by that side whose human and financial resources shall last longest.

“Banking circles, of course, view the financial situation with the utmost gravity, but the general public—in spite of the high prices ruling here, and in spite of the great want of food which is much more noticeable than with us—regard matters a great deal more serenely. This is simply due to the greater optimism so characteristic of the Austrians, whose motto is: ‘Life is so short, and death so very, very long.’ They prefer to assign to future generations the worries which would spoil their sublunary existence.

“Our Kaiser everywhere enjoys an unexampled veneration. Within the next few days he will be made the subject of great celebrations in his honour. Although the tickets of admission are sold at enormous prices, even General v. Georgi, the Chief of the National Defence Organization—whom I met last night—did not succeed in obtaining a box, notwithstanding his high connexions. This morning the well-known member of the Hofburg Theatre, Herr Georg Reimers, read to me two poems dedicated to the Kaiser which he is going to recite that night, and I feel bound to say that it can hardly be an unmixed pleasure to the members of the court to witness this act of enthusiastic homage paid to our ruler.

“The Roumanian question, particularly in its bearing on the food supply, is regarded by people who are able to judge with great anxiety. It is believed that the only thing to do is to send to Bucharest experienced men connected with the supply and the distribution of food who must be properly authorized to purchase as much grain as possible for ourselves and for our allies.

“ ... I also dined with Count Tisza. He is a purely Magyar politician who regards the international situation from his Hungarian point of view, and in conformity with his Magyar inclinations. He is evidently a strong if obstinate character, and he does not impress me as a man who will give up his post without a protest. He, too, thinks the real war aims of Austria-Hungary have been accomplished. Serbia is crushed, Galicia liberated, and Russian supremacy in the Balkans—formerly viewed with so much apprehension—is a thing of the past. All that is wanting now is to bring the Italian campaign to a successful conclusion and the war may be regarded as over as far as Austro-Hungarian interests are involved.

“Both Tisza and the Austrian society showed strong symptoms of an Anglophile leaning. Frau Schratt, who in such matters simply re-echoes the views of the old Emperor, seemed very pro-English, and had something to say about ‘German atrocities.’

“I mention these facts because I cannot help thinking that, notwithstanding the war, some friendly threads must have been spun across from England to Austria.”

“ ... You ask me to tell you something about the political and military situation as I see it, and I shall gladly comply with your wish.

“The accession of Italy to the ranks of our opponents has shown what it means if an additional Power enters the war against us. From a military point of view the entry of Italy did not materially aggravate our position; but the whole aspect of the war, as viewed by our enemies, underwent a complete change, and Grey, who shortly before had announced that ‘there is nothing between us and Germany except Belgium,’ stated a few weeks subsequent to the Italian volte-face that he could not find a suitable basis for peace negotiations anywhere.

“The entry of the United States would have been of immeasurably greater effect on the imagination and the obstinacy of our enemies.

“Hence the whole problem is now, as ever, governed by the axiom to which I have over and over again drawn the attention of the heads of the Berlin economic associations, viz. that we can no more force the British into subjection through our submarines than they can hope to wear us out by their starvation blockade. Both the submarine war and the blockade are extremely disastrous measures, inflicting heavy losses on either side; but neither of them can determine the fate of the war nor bring about a fundamental improvement in the position of either of the belligerent groups of Powers. That, apart from all other considerations, the unrestricted submarine war would have exposed us to the open hostility of the neutral countries, and might even have caused them to join the ranks of our enemies, is an additional contingency which the submarine enthusiasts have found it most convenient to dismiss by a wave of the hand.

“If after the war Germany remains isolated from the rest of the world, she cannot feed her population, and the doctrine of Central European brotherhood promulgated by some of our amiable poets has given rise to a movement which is apt to be of the greatest detriment to the interests of our country when the war is over.

“If we had wished to invest large parts of our German national wealth in countries like Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Turkey, nothing could have prevented us from realizing such a plan at any time previous to the war, provided we had thought it economically sound.

“Such a return to a continental policy, I maintain, would be a disaster to Germany. Our needs and our aspirations have increased to such an extent that we can no longer hope to satisfy them by economic isolation or within the framework of a Central European economic league of states.

“The war has considerably strengthened the moral fibre of the Chancellor; he has learnt to take upon his shoulders responsibilities which, I think, he would formerly have shirked. It is much to be regretted that the Conservative party cannot see eye to eye with him in so many questions. He is blamed for the fact that the Kaiser is so difficult of access, and that he does not every now and then receive the leaders of our political and economic life, as he should do considering the fateful time through which the Empire is passing.

“If the Chancellor is to succeed in carrying through the huge tasks still before him, it is, in my opinion, imperative that he should not lose touch with Conservative circles, and I think there is no reason why the Kaiser should not ask men like Herr v. Wangenheim, Count Schwerin-Löwitz, etc., to visit him from time to time at headquarters, and to acquaint him with their wishes and anxieties.

“I cannot help telling you that the whole nation views with profound regret the Kaiser’s isolation. Since the outbreak of the war I have only once had an interview with His Excellency v. Falkenhayn, and the main purpose of my asking for it was to request him to bring about a change in this state of things by using his influence with the Kaiser. His Excellency frankly told me that he had some objections to doing this, but he promised me nevertheless that he would exercise his influence in this direction. I am only afraid that, because of the excessive burden of work he has to get through, the matter has slipped his memory....”

“February 16th, 1916. My chief apprehensions are purely political. Although it seems that for the moment our differences with the United States will be smoothed over, there can be no doubt but that at times the tension has been so great that a wrong move at the critical moment would have caused America to take up arms against us. Contrary to what most people seem to think, I regard this danger as having by no means passed; in fact I look upon it as always lurking in the background. Those who, like myself, have seen that the secret ideal of British policy is an alliance and permanent co-operation with America, will agree with me that such an Anglo-American understanding for the period of this war would be of lasting detriment to our whole future. You know England, and you know that the course of events has turned the Entente automatically into an alliance, although the British, especially those who look beyond the actual present, have always felt a great deal of aversion towards such a development. The individual Frenchman, indeed, is mostly looked upon as a somewhat grotesque and slightly ludicrous character, but all the same there exists some sympathy with the French as a nation, however artificially this may have been brought about; but towards Russia the average Englishman never felt anything but an icy aloofness and a great deal of antipathy. Hence, the so-called allies of the British have never been the cause of unalloyed joy to them.

“To frustrate such an alliance must be our principal task. To call it into being or even to facilitate its conclusion would be the greatest crime against Germany’s future which anyone could commit.

“Let us by all means sink as much enemy tonnage as possible, let us lay mines, and let us proceed with our submarine warfare as hitherto, or even with more energy, but let the people who are at the head of the whole movement be aware of the immense responsibility that rests on their shoulders. If our leading men speak of a war with America just as cheerfully as though San Marino or Montenegro were involved, I cannot help viewing such an attitude with the utmost apprehension. The British will use all their astuteness and all their energy to exploit any mistakes committed by Germany. If they succeed in this, and if, in consequence, our relations with the United States become very strained again or drift towards a rupture, I fear that we shall not be able to bring this war to a successful close, or derive from it any security for our future development.

“Berlin, February 26th, 1916. During the two days I have now been here it has greatly depressed me to see a number of fanatics who cannot gauge the consequences of their doings attempting to drive this splendid German people towards a new abyss. Alas! delusions and folly are rampant everywhere. If I were you, I should now disregard every other consideration, and explain to the Kaiser as a friend that everything is being gambled away: the existence of his Empire, his crown, and possibly the fate of the dynasty. It is like living in a madhouse; everyone talks about war with Holland, America, Denmark and Roumania as though a mere picnic were concerned.”

“I am sorry that I can send you no good news at all. The conduct of the war and its probable outcome are more of a mystery now than ever, and with all that I cannot help feeling that our responsible quarters do not even now realize the profound gravity of the situation. The political and the military leaders are frequently at variance. There is a lack of proper co-operation between Berlin and Vienna. We imagine ourselves to be the rider, but we are only the horse. The road between Berlin and Vienna is studded with compromises of doubtful value, and incapable archdukes are given the most important positions.

“The military situation was favourable until the Austrians thought their day of reckoning with Italy had come, and when our own Supreme Command set out to cover themselves with laurels in France.

“Both these undertakings turned out to be political and military failures. For hundreds of reasons an early peace is imperative to us. As matters stand at present only Great Britain and Russia can conclude peace, because France and Italy must be regarded as mere British vassals.

“Since the Cabinets of London and Petrograd remain absolutely deaf to our publicly expressed overtures for peace, we have no choice but to try to utterly defeat the one or the other of these, our principal enemies, either Russia or Great Britain.

“We could have finished with Great Britain if we had had at least 300 first-class submarines, and in that case we might have regarded a war against America with complacency.

“Russia has been badly hit through the loss of the industrial regions of Poland. If we had exerted all our strength in that direction, and if we had taken Kiev, the economic key to Russia, the Tsar would have had no alternative but to conclude a separate peace, and this would have settled the Roumanian question at the same time.

“With less certainty, but also, perhaps, with less exertion, it might have proved possible to make peace via Petrograd. But what have we done instead? We have squandered our forces. The Eastern theatre of war was denuded of troops, because at first Falkenhayn felt sure he could take Verdun in a fortnight, then by Easter, and finally by Whitsuntide. All our forces have been hurled at Verdun; rivers of blood have been spilt, and now, in July, we are still outside it. And what does it profit us if we do get it? We shall only find other and more formidable lines behind it.

“In the meantime our good Austrians have transferred all their reliable officers and men to the Tyrol, and have left nothing but the rubbish and their inefficient generals to guard the points of danger. And what are the results? A graceful retirement for Salandra and the formation of an anti-German coalition government in Italy on the one hand, and a manifestation of Austrian superiority on the other, but a failure, nevertheless, because the Austrians were not strong enough numerically to get down into the plain. And even if they had compelled the evacuation of Venetia nothing would have been gained. The fate of Italy, as it happens, does not depend on Austria, but on Great Britain, who will rather watch her starve and perish for want of coal than permit her to sue for peace.

“Well-informed and far-seeing men have justly pointed out that, if fortune so wills it, the Kaiser, arm in arm with Hindenburg and Ludendorff, could risk a ‘bad peace’ without danger to himself and his dynasty, but it appears beyond doubt that the influence of Falkenhayn is all-powerful.

“ ... If we were to arrive at an understanding with Russia to-day, we should be able to go on with the war against Great Britain for a long time to come, and, by means of unimpeded submarine activity, to carry it to a successful issue. In that case we could also estimate the danger threatening us from America at as low a figure as many who are unacquainted with the position are putting it now.

“Thus it is my view that it is necessary to abandon definitely the belief that the war can be brought to a successful issue on the Western Front, and without first defeating Russia. It is greatly to be deplored that many observers assert that the Western Powers will make peace when they have found out that the big offensive now in progress remains without any visible success. Only people who do not know Great Britain can put forward such a proposition, but how many people are there at the Wilhelmstrasse who do know Great Britain? Very few indeed, if any....

“ ... You said you would rejoice to hear from me, and I can only regret with all my heart that I have not been able to report anything to you in which it would really be possible to rejoice.”

“Very many thanks for your welcome letter of yesterday’s date, with the contents of which I agree in every detail.

“The Chancellor clings to his post because he believes that there is no one better qualified than himself to be at the head of affairs. Such an attitude reminds me of the old gentleman who neither wanted to die nor to retire from his post as president of the Berlin Chamber of Commerce, and who bitterly complained to those who came to congratulate him on his ninetieth birthday that he was compelled to stick to his office, in spite of his advanced years, because he could not see a better man to succeed him.

“It is very sad that we have arrived at such an impasse, and I am convinced that the present internal political situation is untenable. No German Chancellor can possibly carry the business of the country to a successful issue if, in the midst of a terrible war, he is obliged to fight against an opposition consisting of the Conservatives, the representatives of the Heavy Industries, and the majority of the National Liberals.

“As far as I can make out, the Chinese wall surrounding the Kaiser has not disappeared with the exit of Falkenhayn from the scene. No one is granted access to him who knows something about the events that led up to this war, and who, in the interests of his dynasty as well as his own, would tell him the unvarnished truth. We are, after all, a constitutional country. It would doubtless be best to transfer General Headquarters to Berlin, but, of course, people are not wanting who object to such a proceeding, asserting that it would enable outside influences to acquire a hold on the conduct of affairs.

“My feeling tells me that the present Cabinets, containing as they do men who are compromised by their actions since the outbreak of war, cannot give us peace. How can anyone imagine that men like Bethmann, Asquith and Grey, who have hurled such incredible insults at each other, can ever sit together at the same table?

“The question as to who is to succeed them, of course, abounds with difficulties.

“I recently met some Austrian gentlemen in Berlin. They are completely apathetic; they have lost all interest in the future, and they themselves suggest that Germany should no longer permit Austria to have a voice in the conduct of affairs. Her food supply will only last until March 1st. After that date she will depend on Hungary and ourselves for her food. She fears that she is not likely to get much, if anything, from Hungary; on the other hand, she feels sure that we are compelled for our own sake to save her from famine.

“Constantinople, too, has only supplies for a few more weeks.

“With us at home the paraffin question is becoming very serious. In country districts it may be possible to tell people to go to bed at curfew time, but the working population of our large cities will never consent to dispense with artificial light. Serious riots have already taken place in connexion with the fat shortage.

“I am afraid that Great Britain is trying to bring about such a change in the situation as will enable her shortly to tell the small neutral countries that no one in Europe will be permitted any longer to remain neutral, and that they must make up their minds to enter one or the other of the two big syndicates. You see nothing I can write to you has even a semblance of comfort in it. I regard the future with the utmost apprehension.”

“Your Excellency,

“April 4th, 1917.

The internal conditions of our country fill me with grave alarm, and I therefore venture to approach Your Excellency privately with this expression of my apprehensions.

“I do not doubt for a moment that our competent authorities intend to extract the utmost advantage to ourselves from the situation which is developing in Russia. This Russian revolution may enable us to bring the war to a close, and to obtain peace terms which, relatively speaking, are not unfavourable.

“If we find ourselves compelled to reduce the bread ration still more, you will, I am sure, agree with me that the bulk of the people will suffer enormously through being underfed. In Austria, conditions are said to be worse still, and I am afraid that we shall even have to part with some of our stores to feed her population.

“At first sight the Chancellor’s speech in the Prussian House of Deputies appeared to be somewhat too comprehensive in its range of vision; but a few days later, when the news of the Russian revolution arrived, it almost seemed that his words had been prompted by Divine inspiration. After this Russian news had become known, it would have been impossible for him to make this speech without giving rise to the suspicion that these events had cast their shadow in advance on the Prussian Parliament. Unfortunately, however, this favourable development was not followed up by the right steps. On the contrary, the Chancellor, after his breezy advance in the House of Deputies, has now retired from the position he then took up, thus creating the impression that our policy is constantly shaped by all sorts of mutually contradictory views and currents. Up to now, although the people have to suffer greatly through the shortage of food and fuel, their patriotism has put up with it because of their faith in the promised electoral reforms. It would have been so simple to reiterate this promise, and at the same time to point out that so many other things claimed precedence during the war, and that so much was at stake, that it would hardly be advisable to introduce this great reform at present, seeing that there was no time to give proper attention to the careful working out of all the details.

“If now, however, such bills as those dealing with the entailed property legislation and with the repeal of the Polish laws are to be discussed, such a postponement is no longer justifiable.

“I hope Your Excellency will pardon me for thus frankly expressing my anxieties, but I considered it my duty to let Your Excellency know my feelings.”