Now let us consider, that if all the current Silver Coin of England were passable and unalterable, yet we have vastly too little in Tale for carrying on the Trade of the Nation.
And this will appear several Ways, but chiefly by the high Price or Guineas and the Causes thereof.
Guineas have risen from 21 s. 6 d. to 30 s. either because the intrinsic Value of Gold hath risen near in Proportion to the Diminution of the intrinsic Value of Silver Coin, or by reason of the Scarcity of the Silver Coin, or the Uncertainty of it, or partly by Reason of one, and partly t’other, which I believe is the Truth, that the Badness and Scarcity of Silver Coin hath occasioned an extravagant Rise of Gold.
Now if so much as concerns the Scarcity of Silver be granted me, then I have nothing to do upon this Article, but shew that the present high Price of Gold is dangerous to the Nation, and more dangerous will a farther Advance of the Price thereof be.
And to them who think the Badness of our Coin the greatest Reason of the present high Valuation of Gold, I shall in the mean time say, that if the Price of Gold hath risen, suppose 4 s. or 5 s. in a Guinea, upon the Account only of the Baseness of our Silver Coin; then in handling that Notion we must look upon Gold not so much a Coin as a Commodity, and so indeed it is at this Present; because the Price of Gold in the Oar or Ingott hath risen almost proportionably to that which is coin’d; so that a Man doth not take a Guinea rather than 29 clipp’d Shillings, because the King’s Impress is upon it; for so ’tis upon the Shillings; or because Authority has made it pass so, for that Authority is wanting; but because it is of a greater intrinsic Value than is in 29 Shillings of clipp’d or counterfeit Money, which is now most current: So that the Valuation of the Commodity Gold hath encreased as the intrinsic Value of our Silver Coin hath decreased.
And if so, then it is to be suspected that the Price of all staple Commodities have encreased in equal Proportion, or that they are in such a Proportion now higher than they wou’d have been; for Gold and Silver being reciprocally the Standards and Measures of Proportion of one another, are so of every thing else; and if I can now buy as many Ounces and Peny-Weights of Silver for a Guinea, as I could have done formerly, then is not Silver Risen more than Gold: and if I can buy as many Grains of Gold now with an Ounce of Silver as I could formerly, then is not Gold risen more than Silver. And this is, perhaps more than a Supposition: For when Silver was 5 s. an Ounce, I cou’d buy 4 Ounces 6 Peny-wt. with a Guinea, and so I can now, that Silver is 6 s. 6 d. per Ounce. Again when Gold was about 3 l. 14 s. an Ounce, I cou’d buy an Ounce of Gold with 15 Ounces of Silver, and so I can now, or near the Matter: So that the Commodities of Gold and Silver answer one another as they did, or near thereabout, abating only for the Portableness of Gold and its Coinage; whereas no Coinage is now allowable for those Pieces of Silver wherein the Coinage is defaced and spoiled; and if those two Commodities are so much higher than they would have been: For they are the Measure and Rule of Proportion of all. Then when the Value of Gold and Silver rises, the intrinsic Value of all Commodities rise with ’em:
For suppose an Eastland or Hamburgh Merchant brings over a Barrel of Mum, which he (when our Money was old Standard) sold for 3 l. he disliking our Money now, sells his Mum, not according to the extrinsic Valuation of our Money, which is risen since he was here last; because the Intrinsic is diminished, but according to the common Value of Gold and Silver in the World; and therefore requires now 4 l. because he judges our Silver to be a fourth Part worse than it was, or if at 5 l. he judges it to be 2 Parts in 5 worse.
Again, suppose he sells his Mum for Gold, or is to exchange his Silver for Gold, that which he was wont to sell for 3 Guineas, he expects 3 Guineas for still; or if you are to pay him in Silver, he expects as much as he can change for 3 Guineas, he wo’nt be fobb’d off with less: So the Merchant sells as cheap as ever; but we pay more, because what we pay, is dearer than it was.
You’ll object against this way of reasoning, and say ’tis the Risques of the Sea, and Obstructions of Trade now in Time or War, makes all foreign Commodities dearer.
But I hope I don’t err in saying, that the Merchant notwithstanding the War wou’d take less of our Silver Coin for the same Commodities if it were better, and less Gold of us if it wou’d buy as much Silver in his own Country.
And there are Reasons which may ballance the Dangers of the Seas in Times of War in Reference to our Commerce with the Subjects of Neutral Princes.
On our side Taxes are great, and the Subject cannot afford to buy so many foreign Commodities as at other times: And on their side they have not so good a Vent as they had; so their Commodities must stick on hand unless sold so cheap as may make amends for the Hazards of the Sea, and the Cheapness of Commodities wou’d be the natural Effects of Scarcity of Money, if our Money had the same real Value as formerly.
Again a Collier who trades to Newcastle is wont to receive a Guinea for every Chaldron of Coals he brought into the River at such a Time of Year, and so he doth still, and no more; and who can say Coals are risen and Mum is risen? No such thing; but Gold and Silver are risen: And when we give the same Gold and Silver for a Commodity as we did, we wrongfully say the Commodity is dear, when ’tis not that but the Gold and Silver which costs us more. We give the same Labour, the same Leather, the same Mault, for the same Quantity of Gold and Silver which we did.
And now ’tis the Country Gentlemen, Artizans and Day-Labourers have the hardest Bargain of all.
The Farmer sells his own Corn and Cattle according to the Value of Gold and Silver, and the Mercer his Silks, and the Draper his Cloth, and the Tanner his Leather; but the Farmer in the mean time pays his Rent, and Husbandmen, and Artizans, according to the Value of our present Coin, and when he paid 28 Guineas a Quarter formerly, twenty shall serve turn now; and the Scrivener buys the Country Gentlemen’s Lands, according to the Valuation of Coin; and not Metal; and the Land which cost the Father 600 Guineas, is now sold by the Son for 430; and half a Year hence it may be proffered for 300. This is nothing but Ruine and Confusion to the Landed Men of the Kingdom.
But if the Buyers of Land, as the Merchants, Bankers and Scriveners are, were Sellers too, we should find Land rise in Proportion to every thing else.
And whereas you’ll say that Farmers and Grasiers are no Merchants, and wou’d be as well contented with passable Coin as old Standard, ’tis very true, but they keep up to such Prices as their whole-sale Chapmen can afford to give ’em; and when a Factor sells his Cloth at Blackwell-Hall; he considers the Necessity of the Buyer, as well as Expence of the Clothier; when a Merchant can make a better Profit, ’tis expected he should give a better Price.
But this with some unthinking People is the Effect of War; and because some things are dearer upon this Account than others, therefore every thing else that is dearer must have the same Cause assigned; but a general Cheapness of things should, methinks, be the Natural Effect of our War, if our Money with which we go to Market were as it should be.
The War consumes but little of our Product and Manufacture; it carries a great many Mouthes into Flanders, and that would naturally make Provisions cheap: Many of these Mouths had idle Hands, and so they are not miss’d in the Manufacture; but instead of them, a great many industrious Foreigners come among us who eat little and work much.
The Taxes, as I said, are great Inducements to Frugality, and the Advantages People have of late made of Money, have been no less.
These and other such like things if the Price of Gold and Silver had not risen, must have occasion’d a Fall of most other Commodities.
And now let us consider the Danger of the high Price of Gold as it stands at present.
Coin is the most portable Commodity, and Gold the most portable Coin; but we have run it up high, and therefore do’nt at present fear Exportation; but then, if ’tis considerably higher than among our Neighbours, there is great Reason to fear too great an Importation may be as dangerous, as a disadvantagious one doth already prove.
It seems to me so curious and nice a Commodity that always there may be Danger in it.
If in the great Thirst that’s now upon us, we take in too much that will occasion a still more dangerous Rise of Silver: For considering the present Balance of Trade, the more Gold is imported, the less there will be of Silver; and if we import too little, we leave our selves destitute of a Way of Trading.
And if the Gold which is our present Support, should by the Craft of Foreigners, or necessities of the War follow the Silver out of the Nation, we should be left, I doubt in a very bad Condition.
And if its Value should rise, as it must needs do if the Silver Coin grow worse and worse, then by how much it rises, by so much more all the Inconveniences and Dangers of its late Rise among us will encrease.
What those Dangers are at present is no great Mystery, the English Merchants will make none of it if they may be heard.
The melancholly Letters which their Factors abroad daily send ’em makes the Case plain.
That a Guinea in Holland and Flanders is now but 26 s. or to speak more properly and plainly too, so many Rials, or Dolars and Stivers as bear Proportion to 26 s. of our Money.
At that Rate they there buy our Guineas of Officers, which they can’t be hindered carrying over in their Pockets; then the Holland and Flemming Merchants send back to us the same Guineas to buy therewith our Staple Goods and Manufactures.
Here they are received at 30 s. And their Factors here, who buy our Manufactures as cheap of the Clothier or Stocking-Seller as our own Merchants, send back for 1000 Guineas. (for Instance) Received from Holland 1500 Pounds worth of our Goods, which when the Dutch or Flemming Merchant receives, he finds by his Accompts that these Goods stand him in no more than 1300 l. So that he has received beyond Sea the like Goods for 1300, &c. which hath stood our English Merchant in 1500 l. The English and Flemming Merchants then ship off each their Goods for Spain, Turkey, the East or West-Indies, and there they go to Market to sell these Goods, and the Flemming under-sells the English 13 per Cent. even in these Commodities which are the Product of England.
And now what is the plain Inference? but inevitable Ruine to the whole Trade of the Nation. Here’s an End of Merchandise, and (in Time of Peace) all Use of Shipping.
This I think is the natural and the present Effect of the Rise of Guineas.
But to return to my proper Subject, fare it as it will with Gold, the current Silver Coin of England is, by 3 Parts in 5 too little for our In-Land Trade, and must ruine in Process of time all those Traders who are wont to make several Returns of their Money in a Year; for the Scarcity of Money occasions the giving of longer Credit than is usual, and the giving of Credit hinders the Frequency of Returns.
Again, the Want of Silver Coin occasions the taking of Gold at such high Rates; and the Value of Gold Coin being uncertain, which Silver Coin hath not hitherto been, the Receiver will always allow himself for a probable Loss: (which would be the certain Effect too of making the Valuation or Silver Coin alterable and uncertain) that Allowance makes things bought so much the dearer, and that Dearness puts a Damp upon Trade.
So that the Scarcity of Silver is not only at present too visible, but so long as the Balance of Trade is lightest on our Side, is like to be more and more felt.
Yet the great Naval Stores we buy from abroad, the great Remittances to be provided for the Subsistence of our Armies and Fleets, are things inevitable, and ’tis impossible to hinder the Exportation of Bullion.
But ’tis very easie to hinder the Exportation of Money.
And as we shall do well to consider, that altho’ our Plate may serve us once at a dead Lift, as the French King show’d us the Way, yet it can’t serve us above once, and when that’s gone after the rest of our Silver, what are we to do next?
We must not only stop a present Gap, but provide for the future, and so I lay it down as a Conclusion.
That we are under a very great Want of Silver Coin to carry on the necessary Trade of the Kingdom.