War completely changes commercial currents. The victor takes the established and profitable trade, leaving to the vanquished the harder lines of business and the development of new fields. This is as true of the first war recorded by history as it will be of the last.
As an illustration of the veracity of this statement it is only necessary to recall our war with Spain. Prior to her defeat, Spain controlled the bulk of the banking and commerce of the Philippines, Cuba and Porto Rico. To her possessions she exported wines, foods, manufactured articles, textiles, drugs, perfumes, canned goods, shoes and hats, receiving in exchange their sugar, tobacco and coffee.
To-day the United States consumes all of these exports, while the requirements of the three countries are supplied by America, which also does their financing through banks organized in these possessions, and capitalized with American money. To be more specific and by way of a concrete example let me mention Cuba, which in 1913 exported $165,000,000 worth of products, all but 15 per cent. of which was taken by the United States, the amount shipped to Spain being about four-tenths of one per cent. During the same period of time she imported goods to the value of $132,000,000 of which we supplied 65 per cent. against Spain’s 8 per cent. Since 1902, Cuba’s foreign commerce has increased 250 per cent. due absolutely to the part played by the United States in the Spanish-American war. The same condition of affairs in exports, imports and other lines is equally true, although not on such a large scale, of course, of the Philippines and Porto Rico.
The Napoleonic wars gave to England the strong position she now occupies in the financial and commercial world. Her bankers and shippers, merchants and manufacturers, with one accord grasped the opportunity that presented itself then and have held the supremacy thus gained for more than a century.
Perhaps it was the recollection of what gave Great Britain her start in this field which led the London Spectator to remark, at the outbreak of war in 1914:
“The present war gives the United Kingdom an excellent opportunity to capture the export and import trade of Germany and Austria-Hungary.”
If England, engaged in the most desperate and expensive war she or the civilized world ever has known, with her enormous resources taxed to their utmost, saw an “opportunity” for trade expansion, how much greater is the chance in this line for an absolutely neutral power, populated with keen business men, and provided by Nature with unparalleled productive possibilities.
The war in Europe developed the most remarkable business situation for the United States ever presented to any nation. The virtual closing of all the doors of the export and import trade of the Old World and the almost total dependence heretofore of the Far East and Latin America, especially, on Europe for finance and trade connections made the war truly the psychological moment for us, as a nation, not only to overcome the lead of the European commercial world, but also to cement by other than ties of business the bonds of friendship due us not only on account of our ideal geographical position, but also because of our similar republican form of government.
By embracing this extraordinary opportunity—apparently almost created for our express benefit, we being the only people able to profit by it—we can make the nations which formerly depended on Europe for support in their trade ventures our business allies, our sincere friends and well-wishers, and at the same time bring about a new trade alignment so that all America will reap the benefit.
Let us briefly consider some of the enormous possibilities of foreign trade in Latin American countries.
Latin America—that is, the countries of Central and South America, together with Mexico, Cuba, Santo Domingo and Porto Rico—comprises twenty distinct states, with a total population of about 65,000,000, a large portion of whom are Indians and half-breeds—a fact which we should not lose sight of in view of the tremendous imports.
Statistics recently compiled by the Pan-American Bureau show that these countries, in 1913, conducted a foreign commerce valued at $2,870,178,575. Of this the imports were $1,304,261,763, and the exports, $1,565,916,812, thus giving Latin America a favorable balance of $261,655,049.
Ten of these countries alone purchased goods to the amount of $961,000,000. Of this sum Great Britain supplied $273,000,000; Germany, $180,000,000; France, $84,000,000; Italy, $54,000,000; Belgium, $47,000,000, and Austria-Hungary, $8,000,000. The United States exported to these ten countries last year $160,000,000 and imported from them $250,000,000. Brazil, in 1913, imported $15,000,000 in textiles alone, of which amount the United States supplied only $500,000. In the same length of time Argentine imported goods to the amount of $468,999,996, of which amount less than 8 per cent, was supplied by this country. The United Kingdom exported to all of Latin America $23,500,000 worth of coal in 1913, the United States, during the same period of time, $750,000.
Practically the same story in all lines of exports could be told of these countries, demonstrating that individually in nearly all cases the United States is the largest consumer of their raw or finished products and the smallest exporter of the goods they most require.
Fearful that some one may infer after looking at these figures that European countries have preferential duties with Latin America, let me state most emphatically that this is not the case. With one single exception no favoritism is shown any of the trading nations, in the matter of import fees, and in that instance we benefit by it. Brazil makes a decided preferential tariff in favor of some of our goods in view of the fact that we are the largest consumers of her chief product—coffee.
Everyone of these countries is in process of development and expansion. They have in profusion the things the busy world most needs. Their mines are the richest known to man. Some have been worked for thousands of years and are still productive. Their broad fields are destined to make them the granaries of the world. Their miles of pasture lands and their extensive acreage mean that Europe and the United States will depend upon them for meat. Their vast virgin forests are capable of supplying humanity with cabinet and other woods for several centuries. Their trade and imports must therefore increase. It is apparent that they cannot diminish. We cannot as a nation afford to remain indifferent any longer to their possibilities and opportunities.
Very naturally there have been many objections on the part of our business men to going after this trade which all of Europe strained every resource to acquire and control. It was urged that we had all the business we required; that we lacked foreign banking facilities; that our merchant marine was small and inefficient; that to go abroad for trade meant learning new languages, acquiring new customs, opening new accounts, taking more risks. These conditions were equally true when the European merchant decided to enter this field. He met and overcame all these difficulties under far more adverse circumstances than exist for us, to-day. His experience in this territory has charted the path for us to follow, and if we take advantage of the beacons he has erected we shall be saved from many pitfalls.
Latin America with the things the world most requires—wheat, meat, wool, coffee, sugar, nitrates, minerals, woods—can never collapse completely through any financial crisis. Furthermore its power of reviving quickly from any unfavorable panic is truly phenomenal. I recall Venezuela, the year she terminated her bloodiest revolution under Castro, harvesting and exporting a bumper crop of coffee, which immediately cleared up her monetary depression, and this rapid convalescent condition has been duplicated time and time again after every period of internal trouble experienced by all of these countries.
Nature has been bounteous in her gifts to these favored lands of the sun. If in a given locality the soil is not fertile, it is rich in mineral wealth, or covered with luxuriant forests. Throughout Latin America large and small rivers afford easy and cheap means of transportation. Drought or excessive rainfalls are comparatively unknown. Despite the fact that a majority of the population lives primitively, epidemics of a severe nature have been few and far between. Revolutions, formerly the blight on these lands, are becoming rare and in most of these countries there have been no such uprisings or demonstrations of this character for more than twenty years.
The opportunities for successful business in almost any chosen line in Latin America are unlimited, provided one uses ordinary judgment and simple tact in the undertaking. Furthermore less capital is required to start an enterprise than in lands where competition is keener, and less energy necessary to insure success. The truth of these statements is demonstrated most completely by the fact that millions of Europeans—many of them uneducated and possessed of no great amount of ability or money—have settled throughout these lands and established themselves in prosperous occupations.
The greatest possibilities exist along the lines of general development. All these countries are new; most of them practically unexplored—many of them not even having their boundary lines definitely established. Think of what must be the opportunities in Brazil—a country larger in area than the United States, and supporting only 20,000,000 people—or of Argentine, spreading over almost as much territory as Europe, excepting Russia and Austria-Hungary, with a population slightly more than 7,000,000. It is to these countries that overcrowded Europe must come for elbow room—for a glimpse of the sun.
Once a business or a plant is established in Latin America one need not have the intense fear of bitter local competition. These people have never been manufacturing or creative in their desires, and the chances are, if we are to predicate their future from their past, that they never will become competitors in any of these fields. Climatic conditions, racial and inherited traits have made them follow the lines of least resistance and they have become cattle raisers and large farmers, while comparatively few have entered commercial life. This being true it follows that these countries are ideal for those desirous of leading an active commercial or manufacturing career.
All of Latin America is in the process of awakening. They are building railways, making vast municipal and national improvements, exploiting their natural resources, modernizing their agricultural methods. The advent of the foreigner has been potent in raising their standard of living. If these people were to raise their standard of living to that of the United States at the present time, it would be the equivalent, so far as market possibilities are concerned, to creating three new Americas. Each day sees some progress in this direction, and with it a desire for more of the comforts of modern civilization—for more of the things which go to make up the full and complete life. This means employment for their people—civic progress—and prosperity.
Their markets are easily reached, the merchants willing to buy, our producers capable of providing the things they require. Their first orders may be small, but they become enormous buyers when they find the article adapted for their needs. The European marts which might have supplied the things these nations require in their growth cannot do so for a long time to come, thus giving us an ideal opportunity to capture these markets and at the same time introduce American methods throughout the length and breadth of the land.