The riches of a country, and its progress, are established and confirmed by its savings. Let us consider cursorily such as, from their self-evidence, admit of no dispute.

Ninety years ago the landed revenue of Great-Britain was computed at about 35 millions. Let us suppose that 10 millions of specie were then required to give an effectual circulation to property of all kinds, (many people will think this by far too little[1]): but the revenue of landed estates, being now 70 millions, 20 millions at least, instead of the 10 millions requisite in the times of William and Mary, should be allowed; and consequently a first clear stock of savings amounts to—10,000,000l.

The consumer in those days was probably allowed, as is still the custom, a twelve-month’s credit upon half the articles purchased. Some of them took a longer time, if others a shorter one; but the stock of credit being then equal only to 35 millions, and now raised to 70 millions, we have clearly another mass of savings of—35,000,000.

Then, as in the present time, the preparing, manufacturing, and delivering, required six, twelve, or eighteen months. Let us suppose the year, upon an average of the slowness of one operation, and the celerity with which another was performed, we shall find again, in the difference of the flock, a third saving of 35,000,000.

If we suppose the value of manufactories, dwellings, warehouses, and all kinds of establishments, necessary to answer all the exigencies of a stock of industry and commerce of 35,000,000, to have amounted then to 25,000,000, we must admit that the objects in the same manner necessary to a stock of 70,000,000, do likewise present us with a fourth clear saving of—25,000,000.

In order to employ those hands by whose labour the annual sum of 35,000,000 was produced, 10,000,000 were probably sufficient; whereas 20,000,000 are now required. This shews a fifth clear saving of—10,000,000.

The annual returns from the American islands was computed, 90 years ago, at about 330,000, (Sir Charles Whitworth’s State of Trade). Half of this produce was, in all likelihood, mortgaged to commerce; but it only supposed a stock of 3,000,000 at most lent, it matters not at what interest. The yearly produce of those colonies, added to that of the ceded islands, amounts, at present, to more than 2,900,000; more than one-third of which belongs to the trader, either as purchaser or mortgagee, and exhibits a sum of about 20,000,000, from which we shall substract the former 3,000,000; and considering (for a moment) those colonies as being foreign to the State, we shall find a sixth clear saving of—17,000,000, (the petition of the merchants in 1775, supposes it to be 30,000,000.)

The English might perhaps be out of humour with me, were I to suppose that the continent of America, stands on the debtor side, for no more than 4,000,000; I shall therefore set down this article as—Memorandum.

Eighty years ago the amount of exportation from England, was estimated at 5,612,085l. In 1773, upon a medium of three years, the same was increased to 16,027,937: of the exceeding 9 or 10 millions, one part appropriated to the commerce in Europe, another to the American, a third to the East-India trade, remain one, two, and sometimes three years, before they can be applied to the same objects. These 10,000,000 therefore suppose a stock more than double the same sum, and ought, in consequence, to be set down as a seventh clear saving of—10,000,000.

The English ships, employed eighty years ago in carrying on the national trade, presented only a sum of 289,318 tons burden; the number of tons is now rated at 775,078. This increase of 485,760, together with the expence attending the fitting out, going and coming, produce a stock of 5,000,000, which must be doubled, by compensating the voyages of six and eight months, by those which require two or three years: here, therefore, appears an eighth clear saving of—10,000,000.

The proprietor of lands should not be considered in this light, in the use he makes of his yearly profits, but with respect to that part of his said profits which he lays out in cultivation: In regard to that share of his income which he invests in the funds, we must consider him as member, agent, and usufructuary of industry and commerce. Now, if we divide into three parts the whole of the national debt, one-third of which, if agreeable, we shall set down as foreign property, and the other two as belonging to the natives, we must of course acknowledge in the nation a new sum of clear savings, amounting to 180,000,000. This, in fact, should not be considered as a real increase of wealth, which it is at all times easy to appreciate, but as a proof that there exists, in the nation, an inestimable number of men, who are capable, in the space of ninety years, to effect a saving of 180,000,000, which government will have it in its power, within the same space of time, to appropriate to the exigencies of war, if potentates should continue in a warlike humour; or to lay out in objects of industry and cultivation, supposing an improvement of the revenue should be preferred to a state of warfare.

I shall not speak either of the difference which may be observed between the present state of the Royal navy, and the situation it was in at the beginning of this century, nor of the public monuments erected from that period, nor of the India territories, nor of the Colonies remaining to England; provided the objection concerning the money due to foreigners is not repeated against me, as I am in hopes, by and by, to find some kind of compensation for it. I shall therefore confine myself here, to observe, that the above savings of all kinds of industry, some of them active, the others passive, all equally necessary, assisting each other mutually, no doubt, and finally amounting to 332 millions, have been effected in the course of 90 years; not with any sensible detriment to the landed property, since its revenue is doubled, nor to the disadvantage of the lower class of people, whose day-work brings in 1s. 4d. instead of 8d. nor to the prejudice of the fine arts, the rewards of which are perhaps fourfold, comparatively speaking; but solely according to the common course of things, restrained, nevertheless, by a war of 30 years and upwards, out of the 90, and by all the prejudices which the present generation begins to shake off, and which probably will be entirely abolished in the next.

It is no ways natural that the same causes will not be productive of the same effects. It may therefore, in my judgement, be reasonably concluded, that, within 90 years from this day, the landed revenue may be increased to double its actual value, and the population, trade, and industry, augmented in the like proportion, were even the national debt to amount then to 476,000,000, instead of the present 238,000,000, which excites so many complaints and loud murmurings.

In fact, let us suppose the debt arrived at a height so apparently formidable, and the price of every thing proportionably increased; would the former be less firmly established? Methinks that the very contrary is demonstrated by calculation, and that imagination cannot frame any rational objection thereto; at least I am free to confess, that all my efforts have not been able to produce any combination of probable circumstances, which might, in any supposition, justify the dread of that application of the sponge which is so often held out as a resource that sooner or later must be adopted. Setting aside the infamy of such a measure, what advantage would accrue from it? Let it be adopted this moment in London, within three days the same step must inevitably be taken at Paris. A manœuvre of this kind would manifestly indicate either the most hostile intentions on the part of the English government, or the project of overturning the constitution: the latter concerns England alone; but in the former, France is deeply interested. That power would be compelled to put itself in a situation to oppose an immense and free revenue, to a revenue equally immense without appropriation. Were, on the other hand, the French to lead the way, England must inevitably follow; and the unprofitable disgrace would be the portion of either of the two nations that should have set up the precedent.

But who will see without grief, 2,000,000 interest due to foreign States! 2,000,000 in specie carried out every year from England! England yearly stript of 2,000,000 of her money!!! It will be seen hereafter in what that money consists. Yet with personal stocks so real, so considerable, so clear, what can prevent Great Britain wresting from the foreigner, the share he claims in the national debt? The reason is obvious: the owner of landed property, or the farmer, who hopes to get six per cent. of the stock which he lays out upon his lands, instead of vesting them in the funds, envies not the foreigner who is glad to get 5, 4, or even 3 per cent. On the other hand, the merchant who trades by commission, and who has an opportunity of placing in the colonies his money at 5 per cent. interest, which is raised to 8 and 9 by his commissions for sale and purchase procured therewith, cannot wish himself in the situation of a stranger, whose stock in the English funds brings him in, not above one half of that sum. It is still less an object of envy for the manufacturers, or owners of ships, who, from their manufactories or shipping, clear 10 or 12 per cent. of the monies laid out by them: the projectors of all kinds likewise flatter themselves, that the stock employed in their undertakings will produce 15 per cent. To sum up the whole in much fewer words, the prospect of 3 or 4 per cent. is not likely to tempt any one, who is in hopes of getting a two, three, or even four-fold interest. And in fine, the public funds, in any country whatever, will never be more or less than a lucky, or rather a providential, resource for those who have neither talent, power, nor leisure, to place their money to better advantage.

Now, would the abolishing of such a resource turn to the profit of the State, even supposing it to be effected by the justifiable means of a general reimbursement, were the case possible? I have too often reflected on the subject, too often revolved it over and over, I have viewed it under too many points, not to be sensible how far above my strength it is to discuss the matter in all its parts; I shall nevertheless venture to throw out some thoughts, which to me seem likely to render somewhat problematical a question which, at first sight, does not appear anyways difficult to resolve.

This question is not, whether it would be more advantageous to the State, not to have contracted a debt of 238 millions; but whether, since it is incurred, it would be profitable to discharge it. To doubt of the former, would be absurd: 238 millions thrown away almost entirely, within the space of 90 years, to forward destructive schemes, now no otherwise compensated than by a double devastation of the same kind, in a neighbouring kingdom, which by a treble population was able to support it, would certainly have been better bestowed, in both countries, either on the lands, whose revenues and number of cultivators would have increased, or in the improvement of the trade and arts, the stock and chef-d’œuvres of which would thus have been multiplied. But the debt being once incurred, let us suppose that the 238 millions, which are vanished, should return into the Exchequer, would it be proper or not to pay it off? Thus stands the question.