THE LARGEST AND THE MOST EFFECTIVE METEOROLOGICAL BUREAU IN THE WORLD
Even to those who are familiar with the application of meteorological science to the making of weather forecasts, and with the material benefits accruing to the commerce and industry of the United States from timely warnings of marine storms, frosts, and cold waves, it will be interesting to note that at the time of the founding of the first of the thirteen original Colonies, at Jamestown, Virginia, in 1607, practically nothing was known of the properties of the air or of methods for measuring its forces. To-day electrically recording automatic meteorological instruments measure and transcribe for each moment of time at two hundred stations in the United States, the temperature, the air pressure, the velocity of the wind, the direction of the wind, the beginning and ending of rainfall, with the amount of precipitation; and the presence of sunshine or cloud; and three thousand voluntary observers each day record the temperature and the rainfall.
That we live in an age of great intellectual acumen, and that he is indeed a wise prophet who can even dimly outline the possibilities of the next century, is fitly shown by the development of meteorological science during the recollection of the present generation; although one must admit that in the making of weather forecasts, valuable as they are, we have not advanced beyond the partly empirical stage. It is, therefore, improbable that in the making of these forecasts we shall ever attain the accuracy acquired by theoretical astronomy in predicting the date of an eclipse or the culmination of any celestial event.
It was not until 1644, twenty-four years after the landing of the Pilgrims at Plymouth Rock, that Torricelli discovered the principle of the barometer and rendered it possible to measure the weight of the superincumbent air at any spot where the wonderful yet simple little instrument might be placed. Torricelli’s great teacher—Galileo—died without knowing why nature, under certain conditions, abhors a vacuum, but he had already discovered the principle of the thermometer. The data from the readings of these two instruments form the base of all meteorological science. Their inventors as little appreciated the value of their discoveries as they dreamed of the coming great western empire which should first use their instruments to measure the inception and development of storms, and later, with the aid of the electro-magnetic telegraph, to give warnings to threatened regions of the approach of hurricanes, cold waves, floods, and frosts that have been worth at least one hundred million dollars to this country during the past ten years without counting the many thousands of lives saved among mariners.
Doctor John Lining, of Charleston, South Carolina, kept a daily record of the temperature in this country as early as 1738, although the accurate thermometers of Fahrenheit had then been in use but a few years and the errors due to imperfect mechanical construction may have been considerable as compared with the refined instruments now used for measuring temperature. About one hundred years after the invention of the barometer, viz., in 1747, Benjamin Franklin, the patriot and statesman, the diplomat, the scientist, divined that certain storms may move in a direction opposite to the blowing of the wind and that they progress in an easterly direction. It was prophetic that this idea should come to him long before any one had ever seen charts showing observations simultaneously taken at many stations. But although his ideas in this respect were more momentous than his act of drawing the lightning from the clouds and identifying it with the electricity of the laboratory, yet his contemporaries thought little of his philosophy of storms, and it was soon forgotten. It will be interesting to learn how he reached his conclusion as to the cyclonic or eddy-like nature of storms. He had arranged with a co-worker at Boston to take observations of an eclipse at the same time that Franklin was taking readings at Philadelphia. Early on the evening of the eclipse an unusually severe northeast wind and rainstorm set in at Philadelphia and Franklin was unable to secure any observations. He reasoned that as the wind blew fiercely from the northeast the storm, of course, was coming from that direction, and Boston must have experienced its ravages before Philadelphia was reached. Reports indicated that the storm was widespread. What was the surprise of Franklin, when, after the slow passage of the mail by coach, he heard from his friend in Boston that the night of the eclipse had been clear and favorable for observations, but that a terrific northeast wind and rainstorm began early the following morning. Franklin then sent out inquiries to surrounding stage stations and found that at all places southwest of Philadelphia the storm began earlier and that the greater the distance the earlier the beginning as compared with its advent in Philadelphia; but northeast of Philadelphia the time of the beginning of the storm was later than at the latter city, the storm not reaching Boston until twelve hours after it began at Philadelphia. In considering these facts a line of inductive reasoning brought him to the conclusion that the wind always blows towards the center of the storm; that the northeast storm which Boston and Philadelphia had experienced was caused by the suction exercised by an advancing storm eddy from the west which drew the air rapidly from Boston toward Philadelphia, while the source of the attraction—the center of the storm eddy—was yet a thousand miles to the southwest of the latter place; that the velocity of the northeast wind increased as the center of the storm eddy advanced nearer and nearer from the southwest until the wind reached the conditions of a hurricane; that the wind between Boston and Philadelphia shifted its direction so as to come from the southwest after the center of the storm eddy had passed over this region; and that the force of the wind gradually decreased as the center of attraction—which always is the storm center—passed farther and farther away to the northeast.
Another man whose name is dear to the heart of every patriotic American conducted, in conjunction with a friend, a series of weather observations, beginning in 1771 and continued during the stirring times of the Revolution. This was the sage of Monticello, Thomas Jefferson.
During the first half of the nineteenth century, nearly a hundred years after Franklin’s northeast rainstorm, Redfield, Espy, Loomis, Henry, and other American scientists laboriously gathered by mail the data of storms after their passage and demonstrated their principal motions to be such as Franklin had supposed. Professor Joseph Henry, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, in 1855, constructed the first daily weather map from simultaneous observations collected by telegraph. He did not publish his forecast but used his large wall map for the purpose of demonstrating the feasibility of organizing a Government weather service. If there were no other achievements to the credit of the institution founded in this country through the benevolence of the English philanthropist, James Smithson, who, by the way, never gazed upon our fair land, the work of the Smithsonian Institution in connection with practical meteorology would always give it a warm place in the hearts of those who believe the crowning achievements of science consist in giving to the world knowledge which results in the saving of human life, the amelioration of the sufferings of human beings, and the acceleration of the wheels of commerce and industry.
Although American scientists were the pioneers in discovering the progressive character of storms and in demonstrating the practicability of weather services, the United States was the fourth Government to give legal autonomy to a weather service. Holland established a weather service, with telegraph reports and forecasts, in 1860; England followed with a smaller service in 1861; and France in 1863. But none of these countries has an area from which observations can be collected great enough to give such a synoptic picture of storms as is necessary in the making of forecasts of much utility. It would require an international service, embracing all the countries of Europe, to equal, in extent of the area covered and of the accuracy of its forecasts, the service of the United States, which was begun in 1870, as the result of agitation by Lapham, Henry, Abbe, Maury, and others.
The vast region now brought under the dominion of twice daily synchronous observations embraces an area extending two thousand miles north and south, three thousand miles east and west, and so fortunately located in the interest of the meteorologist as to include an important arc on the circum-polar thoroughfare of storms of the northern hemisphere. Simultaneous observations, collected twice daily by telegraph from two hundred stations, distributed throughout this great area, renders it possible at several central offices, where all the reports are received, to present to the trained eye of the forecaster a wonderful panoramic picture of atmospheric conditions. Each twelve hours the kaleidoscope changes and a new graphic picture of actual changes is shown. The movements of storm centers and cold-wave areas are noted and estimates made as to their probable course during the next twenty-four hours. Where else can the meteorologist find such an opportunity to study storms and atmospheric changes?
In 1870, and for ten years thereafter, our forecasts and storm warnings were looked upon by the press and the people more as experiments than as serious statements. The newspapers especially were prone to facetiously comment on the forecasts, and many were clamorous for the abolition of the service during the first years of its existence. There was some ground for the criticisms. We knew nearly as much about the mechanics of storms at that time as we do to-day, but we had not, by a daily watching of the inception, the development, and the progression of storms, trained a corps of expert forecasters, such as now form a part of the staff of the Chief of the Weather Bureau, and from which the writer was graduated before he became Chief. Along about 1880, mariners began to note that danger signals were, in far more than a majority of cases, followed by heavy winds; they began to reason that it would be better to take precaution against storms that never came, than to be unprepared for those which did come according to the forecasts.
It is a fact that many times, by the operation of forces not indicated by the surface readings, the barometer at the center of a storm begins to rise and the velocity of the whirling mass to decrease. In such a case the storm signals placed in advance of the storm center would fail to give the proper information. Again, the storm center may suddenly acquire a force not anticipated, or it may pursue a track considerably divergent from the normal for the location and season. In this case, also, the forecasts may warn some cities that fail to receive the effects of the storm. However, during the past few years the staff of the Weather Bureau, which includes the ablest meteorologists in the United States, has made a study of the peculiarities of the different types of storms occurring in the different localities during the various seasons of the year, their line of travel and the force they may be expected to attain. Competitive examinations have been held to test the comparative merits of those who, by natural ability, are best fitted to correctly and quickly correlate in their minds the conditions shown on a meteorological chart, and to make accurate deductions therefrom as to the development, movement, and force of storms. This line of work and investigation has resulted in improved forecasts; so much so that mariners now universally heed the storm warnings; horticulturists and truck gardeners make ample provision for protection against frost; the shippers of perishable produce give full credence to the cold wave predictions. Of the many West Indian hurricanes which have swept our Atlantic seaboard from Florida to Maine during the past many years, not one has reached a single seaport without danger warnings being sent well in advance of the storm; and few unnecessary warnings have been issued. The result is that few disasters of consequence have occurred. Large owners of marine property estimate that one of these severe storms traversing our Atlantic coast in the absence of danger signals would leave not less than three million dollars’ worth of wreckage. Twice a census was taken just after the passage of severe hurricanes to determine the value of property held in port by the danger warning sent out in advance of the storms. In one case the figure was placed at thirty-four million dollars and in the other thirty-eight million dollars. Of course this does not represent the value of property saved. It simply shows the value of property placed in positions of safety as a result of the danger signals and warning messages sent to masters.
On January 1, 1898, an extensive cold wave swept from the Rocky Mountains eastward to the seaboard. Estimates secured from shippers in a hundred principal cities indicate that property valued at three million four hundred thousand dollars was saved as a direct result of the predictions sent out well in advance of the coming of the severe cold. The utility of these forecasts to the agriculture, the commerce, and the industry of the country is so great that there is hardly a daily paper that does not publish weather forecasts in a prominent place, and there is scarcely a reader who fails to note the predictions.
Twenty-five years ago mariners on our Great Lakes and seaboard depended on their own weather lore to warn them of coming storms. Then, although the number of craft plying our waters was much less than now, every severe storm that swept the Lakes or Atlantic coast left destruction and death in its wake, and for days afterward the dead were cast up by the receding waves, and the shores were lined with wreckage. Happily this is not now the case, for the Weather Bureau is ever watching the changes of atmospheric conditions, and giving to the mariner warning of coming storms. Each observer telegraphs instantly to the Central Office whenever the delicately adjusted instruments at his station show unusual agitation. By this means the inception of many storms is detected when the regular morning and evening reports fail to give notice of their origin.
Some idea of the vast interests floating on the Atlantic coast may be had when it is stated that 5628 trans-Atlantic steamers, with an aggregate of 10,076,148 tons, and 5842 sailing craft, aggregating 2,105,688 tons, entered and left ports on the Atlantic seaboard during a single year ten years ago, and the record is vastly greater now. The value of their cargoes is more than a billion and a half of dollars. Our coastwise traffic is enormous. Fifteen years ago more than seventeen thousand sailing vessels and four thousand steamers entered and left the ports between Maine and Florida. The number has largely increased since. From these facts one can roughly measure the value of the marine property which the Weather Bureau aims to protect by giving warning of approaching storms.
It is the expectation of the meteorologist that some day he will be able to accurately forecast the weather for weeks and months in advance. What a wonderful conservation of human energy would result if it were possible to tell the farmer when the great corn and wheat belts would have abundant rain during the next growing season, or when droughts would parch and wither the vegetation; or to truthfully inform the planter of the South that the coming season would be favorable or unfavorable for the production of cotton! Effort could be withheld in one part of the country, and greater energy exerted in another.
This extension of forecasting doubtless will be accomplished as the result of further study of solar impulses which disturb the orderly processes of the earth’s atmosphere and initiate storms, combined with a comparative study of meteorological data. We may be laying the foundation of a great edifice which shall adorn the civilization of future centuries.
As storms of more or less intensity pass over large portions of our country every few days during the greater part of the year, and as it is seldom that the weather report does not show one or more storms as operating somewhere within our broad domain, it is easy for some charlatan to forecast thunderstorms about a certain time in July, or a cold wave and snow about a certain period in January, and stand a fair chance to accidentally become famous as a prophet. One may select any three equidistant dates in January and forecast high wind, snow, and cold for New York City, and stand a fair chance of having the fraudulent forecast verified in two out of the three cases, provided that you claim a storm coming the day before or the day after one of your dates is the storm that you expected.
From the introduction of the electro-magnetic telegraph in 1844 down to 1869 intermittent advocations were made by many in this country for a national weather service. Finally Doctor Increase A. Lapham, of Milwaukee, scientist and philanthropist, so aroused the property and financial interests of the country with the facts that he presented relative to the destruction of life and property by storms on Lake Michigan that Congress, under provisions of a bill introduced by General Halbert E. Paine, was induced to appropriate money to initiate a service. To General Albert J. Meyer, Chief Signal Officer, U. S. A., was intrusted the duty of inaugurating a tentative weather service by deploying over the country as observers the military signalmen of his command. From this beginning has evolved the present extensive Weather Bureau, which is the largest in the world and more intimately serves the needs of the public than any other.
In 1869 Professor Cleveland Abbe published a weather bulletin at Cincinnati, based upon simultaneous observations secured by telegraph from about thirty stations. He was the first scientific assistant to General Meyer and remained continuously with the service until his death in 1919. Colonel (afterward Brigadier-General) H. H. C. Dunwoody, U. S. A., served twenty-seven years as an expert forecaster or as the assistant chief of the Weather Bureau. General A. W. Greely, of Arctic fame, the last of the military chiefs, succeeded Brigadier-General William B. Hazen on the death of the latter. Professor Mark W. Harrington was the first chief of the new civil Weather Bureau; he served but four years and was succeeded by Professor Willis L. Moore, who remained chief for eighteen years, serving two years under President Cleveland, who appointed him, and during the entire administrations of McKinley, Roosevelt, and Taft, and was removed by Woodrow Wilson immediately on taking office. Professor Moore claims the honor of having been the first presidential appointee to incur the displeasure and receive the public condemnation of Woodrow Wilson. The present chief is Professor Charles F. Marvin, who for many years served as an assistant to Professor Moore.