The sands of the old Emperor's life were now fast running out. He was ninety-one years of age, and he had felt his son's affliction very keenly. It was Prince William who watched over the last few years of the old Kaiser's life. It was to him that the aged monarch gave warning and counsel for the future. He advised his grandson to be patient and dutiful during his father's reign, which could not last long, and he begged him to be "considerate" to Russia, for he had always feared to make an enemy of that great Power. He knew full well that if ever Germany should come to blows with Russia, France would attack her, and thus she would have to fight two wars, one on each frontier, at the same time. Then the old man begged Bismarck to remain in office, no matter what should befall; and a few days later he died, full of years and honour, leaving the imperial crown to his poor afflicted son. His dying words were, "Fritz, lieber[143] Fritz."
William was now Crown Prince, and he knew that he would soon be Emperor. His poor father was a doomed man. He reigned eighty-four days, and bore his sufferings with the greatest fortitude. He once wrote to the Crown Prince: "Learn to suffer without complaint, for that is all that I can teach you." With his broken-hearted wife and some of his devoted servants kneeling round him, he breathed his last on June 15, 1888, and the Crown Prince in his twenty-ninth year became Kaiser as William II.
How he received the news of his father's death we do not know, but in less than half an hour he called out a squadron of Hussars in their red jackets, and sent them clattering to the Palace where the dead Emperor lay. They surrounded the building, and behind them came a company of infantry at the double. The place was thus sealed up, and no one was allowed to go in or come out. Before his poor mother had recovered from her first transports of grief the home in which her dead husband lay was in a state of siege.
The late Emperor had issued his first proclamation to his people, and his second to his Army, but the new Emperor reversed the order. On the day of his father's death he sent messages to the Army and Navy, and kept his people waiting three days before they received their proclamation. To the Army he wrote as follows:—
"I and the army belong to one another; we are born for one another, and we will stand together in an indissoluble bond in peace or storm, as God may will. I swear always to remember that the eyes of my ancestors look down upon me from the other world, and that one day I shall have to give an account to them of the honour and glory of the army."
Then he proceeded to bury his father, but there was none of the military pomp which had been seen at the Emperor William's funeral. It looked as though the new sovereign thought lightly of his own father because he was a peace-loving monarch, and had determined to follow the example of the "War Lord" who had brought France to her knees, and by doing so had created the German Empire.
In the passage quoted above the Emperor spoke of the bond which united him with the Army. Let us see what this bond is. As King of Prussia he is supreme over the Prussian army; he can declare peace or war as he pleases, though, of course, his people must vote him "the sinews of war"—that is, money, before he can set his armies in motion. In ordinary times the Prussian army forms about two-thirds of the whole German army, so you see that as King of Prussia the Kaiser is a very powerful "war lord" indeed.
As German Emperor his position is quite different. He is the leader of the five-and-twenty sovereigns and free cities which are united into the German Empire, and before he can declare war he must call together the representatives of all these states, and obtain their consent. Each of the states has to send to the German army a certain number of troops, according to its population. In peace time the Kaiser has the right to inspect them, and to see that they are properly trained and ready to take the field. As soon as war is declared, he takes the supreme command, not only of the Prussian soldiers, but also of all the other German troops.
I cannot now tell you the Kaiser's story in detail. I can only dwell on a few incidents that reveal his character. When he first opened the Prussian Parliament in state he declared, amidst a perfect storm of applause, that he should be guided by the maxim of Frederick the Great—that the King of Prussia was but the first servant of the state. To do him justice, he has devoted himself unsparingly to the duties of his high office; and though he has made many mistakes, and has brought his Empire to the edge of the precipice over which it bids fair to topple in utter ruin, he has always laboured, according to his lights, to make Germany overwhelmingly strong in war and prosperous in peace. But from the first he meant to do this in his own way. He clearly told the Prussian Parliament that, while he had no desire to take away such liberties as the people had, he would never yield one jot or tittle of his rights as king. British sovereigns know that they derive all their power from their people, but the Kaiser has always held that he holds his throne directly from God. Some years later he said:—
"The German people are the chosen of God. On me, on me as German Emperor, the Spirit of God has descended. I am His weapon, His sword, and His viceregent. Woe to cowards and unbelievers!"
"There is only one master in this country. I am he, and I shall suffer no other beside me."
"There is only one law—my law, the law which I myself lay down."
Four years ago, at Königsberg, he repeated his claim to "divine right" in the following words:—
"It was on this spot that my grandfather placed the royal crown of Prussia on his head,[144] insisting once again that it was bestowed upon him by the grace of God alone, and not by Parliaments and meetings and decisions of the people. He thus regarded himself as the chosen instrument of Heaven. I consider myself such an instrument of Heaven, and shall go my way without regard to the views and opinions of the day."
Now to you and me such statements as this seem to be the ravings of a madman, and we wonder why the Prussians permit one man to lord it over them in this fashion. The explanation is that the Prussians have never known any other condition of things; that though every man over twenty-five has a vote, matters are so arranged that a hundred rich men have more voting power than two thousand poor men. The nobles and the officials dislike popular liberty, and they do their utmost to prevent any further rights being granted to the people. Then, again, as every Prussian must be a soldier for one or more years, the nation has been well drilled into submission. All Prussians know that the Empire was founded by the sword, and they believe that it can only be maintained in the same way. The majority of them, therefore, regard the Emperor as their commanding officer, and are prepared to obey him with unquestioning obedience.
William had not been long on the throne before he quarrelled with Bismarck, the wily old Chancellor who had served his grandfather so long and so faithfully, and had taught the young Emperor all the tricks of government. The fact was, that while Bismarck remained Chancellor, William could not truthfully say, "There is only one master in this country. I am he." All the Prussians who were not jealous of Bismarck knew that he was the chief maker of the German Empire, and they, therefore, held him in the greatest honour and esteem. The old man was very strong and self-willed; so was the young monarch, who was extremely vain as well, and quite confident that he could do everything he turned his hand to better than anybody else. William therefore determined to dismiss Bismarck, and treated the old man in such a manner that he resigned office. When the Chancellor went to the Palace to give up his seals he still thought that the Emperor would give way. He was soon undeceived. After listening to the Kaiser for some time, Bismarck said, "Then I am in your way, sir?" To which William replied, "Yes." He had already got rid of Moltke.
In the early part of his reign William had treated his mother very harshly, probably because he thought this would be pleasing to those of his subjects who hated Britain. He now began to behave better to his mother, and then suggested to his grandmother, Queen Victoria, that he should pay her a visit in England. She agreed, and he came amongst us for the first time as German Emperor. He was present at a naval review, and the Queen made him, to his great delight, a British admiral. In return, he made the old Queen colonel of one of his regiments. Thereafter he professed great friendship for our country. When Queen Victoria died he walked behind her coffin along the streets of Windsor, side by side with his uncle, King Edward VII., and showed great grief.
On his return to Germany the Emperor shone in the full blaze of the limelight as the one only man in the whole land. He made many speeches, declaring over and over again that he was the chosen of God, and assuring his subjects that all who would help in his great task would be heartily welcomed, but those who attempted to oppose him would be dashed in pieces. Of course there were many Germans who greatly disliked the acts and speeches of their boastful and meddlesome sovereign. On one occasion he told these critical persons that if they were dissatisfied they should "shake the dust of Germany from their feet." A newspaper pointed out that if all those who were dissatisfied in the German Empire were to emigrate, his Imperial Majesty would be left entirely alone, and then he also would be dissatisfied and would leave too!
At various times during his reign the Emperor has tried hard to win the favour of the peoples who have been forcibly included in the German Empire. He went to Alsace, and made a gracious speech in Strassburg; but later on, at Metz, he harshly told the people of Lorraine, "German you are, and German you will remain. May God and our German sword help us to effect this." These words were meant to crush any hopes that the people might entertain of one day being reunited with France. He also went amongst the Poles,[145] who have never been satisfied with German rule, and severely rebuked the nobles and the citizens. When he was leaving one of the Polish towns he said to the Mayor, "I hope that my words will be well borne in mind, for you know that I can be very disagreeable too."
Not content with being supreme in government, William now set up to be a judge of art and poetry in the Empire. He wrote a set of verses of pagan fierceness, and sent for an artist, and gave him the idea of the picture which you see on page 142. It represents the civilized nations of Europe standing in the midst of mountains, valleys, and cities, with the castle of Hohenzollern in the foreground. Confronting the nations is a sea of flames and clouds of smoke, which are twisted into the form of terrible faces, representing the Chinese and Japanese. Buddha[146] sits enthroned in the midst of this framework as the demon of destruction. The Archangel Michael with a flaming sword appears in front of the civilized nations, urging them to prepare for a terrific conflict. Underneath the original picture the Emperor wrote, "Nations of Europe, defend your holiest possessions." You will observe that in this picture, which is supposed to warn us of what is called the Yellow Peril,[147] Germany is the chief figure, and that clinging to her is her ally, Austria.
Early in the year 1895 the Kaiser began to turn his thoughts to the Navy. Already he had the finest and best-organized army in the world; now he desired to win the sovereignty of the seas as well. "Germany's future," he said, "is upon the waters." The navy which he proposed to build was out of all proportion to the number of merchant ships which Germany possessed, and from the first many people in this country rightly guessed that it was meant to be the means of overcoming Great Britain. The Kaiser also caused a canal to be dug through Schleswig-Holstein, so as to unite the North Sea with the Baltic Sea, in order that his warships might rapidly pass from one to the other. The work of enlarging and deepening this canal was only finished in June 1914, within six weeks of the outbreak of war.
All this time envy and hatred of Britain was growing in Germany. Thanks to hard work, great perseverance, and much thought, Germany had become a great manufacturing nation, the rival of Great Britain. She felt that she was marked out to be the head of a world-empire, yet there were many drawbacks in her way. If you look at a map of Europe you will see that Germany has a very poor sea coast, and but few good harbours. The bulk of the Baltic Sea, which fronts the greater part of her coast, is frozen up for months every year. Every day Germany feels the necessity of possessing ports on the open ocean; yet she can only secure them by conquest. She is surrounded by old-established nations: by France on the west, Russia on the east, Austria-Hungary on the south. Two small states, one of them neutralized by a treaty to which she was a party, lie between her and the North Sea, and both of them possess ports which rank amongst the world's finest havens. The bulk of her sea-borne trade must pass through Belgium, the more southerly of these states, and she has never concealed her eager desire to possess it. Holland has long been regarded by her as a "brave bit of the Fatherland."
Germany, therefore, cannot expand in Europe without conquest, and she has found many difficulties in the way of expanding overseas. When she was ready to make herself a world-power, all the best parts of the earth had been taken up by other nations. She found that she had been born too late. She managed to found several colonies in Africa; but, with the exception of Togoland and the Kamerun, they were unfruitful and thankless regions of sand and stones. In Asia she set up the colony of Kiao-chau, in North China, and thereby aroused the anger of the Japanese. When she tried to get territory elsewhere she found herself in conflict with one or other of the Great Powers. Then, too, she saw hundreds of thousands of her people departing for America or for the colonies of other Powers, and there becoming lost to her. All this has been very galling to the Germans, and the Prussian military class has never ceased to point out that Germany can only expand by means of warfare.
Though the Kaiser has frequently declared himself the friend of peace, he has always made the most warlike speeches to his own subjects. When he addresses his Army and Navy he does so in a defiant and boastful manner, and is fond of talking about the "mailed fist" and "shining armour" of Germany. For many years past this kind of talk has been very irritating to the other nations of Europe. On the eve of the Boer War he sent a telegram to Mr. Kruger, the President of the South African Republic, which plainly showed that he was no friend to Great Britain. When the war went against us in its early stages he and his advisers thought that we should be beaten, and that the British Empire would fall to pieces. It was openly said by Germans that if they had then possessed a strong navy they would have been able to capture some of the British colonies. The Kaiser seized the opportunity to press his Parliament to give him a big grant for building warships. He plainly told his people that his navy was to be so strong that "the next greatest naval power"—that is, Great Britain—would not be able to attack it without grave risk. So a big navy, costing more than 300 millions of money, was built.
I have already told you that for many years past Germany has been very envious of the British Empire. A great German historian was never tired of teaching that Britain was the enemy of Germany. She was, he said, a "robber state;" she had become mistress of one-fifth of the whole world by making cat's paws of other races; and she had no real right to all this territory. She could not even rule it properly. If ever she had been strong and warlike, that time had long gone by. Though she appeared to be strong, she was really very weak, and quite unable to hold her Empire against such a strong Power as Germany. The Germans have come to believe this teaching, and for years past they have looked forward to "the day" on which they would challenge the power of Great Britain, and, after having defeated her, would enter into her heritage. They have also been taught that there is nothing wrong in trying to seize the territory of other nations. Might, they believe, is right, and the spoils of the world are for the strongest.
Newspaper writers in Germany have constantly preached this doctrine to the people, and several Prussian officers have written books showing how Germany ought to go to work to beat down Great Britain, and tear her Empire from her. War has become the religion of Germany, and she has prepared for it with wonderful foresight and zeal. While she has grown to be a great manufacturing and trading nation, she has never for a moment neglected her Army nor ceased to build up her Navy.
She has also tried to win the mastery of the air. When Count Zeppelin, about the year 1899, invented a great airship which could travel for hundreds of miles and carry some thirty or forty men, the Kaiser saw at once that it might become a great weapon of war. Germany now possesses about thirty of these airships, and they are meant to play a large part in an invasion of Britain. On the opposite page you will see a picture of a modern Zeppelin, with a part of the covering removed to show you the framing of the interior, and the many separate gas chambers which it contains. It is said that even if half these chambers were destroyed the airship would still float and answer its helm. The outside covering is made of light metal known as aluminium. It costs some thousands of pounds to inflate a Zeppelin, and two hundred pounds a week to restore the gas lost by evaporation.
The Victoria Luise, one of the crack Zeppelins, has made some wonderful trips, and she could no doubt fly from Kiel or Hamburg over any part of the British Isles and back again. But fog and storm are her deadly enemies, and there are many other difficulties to be overcome before she could make a raid upon Britain, drop bombs on her cities, and return in safety.
The great instrument of the Kaiser's ambition is his army. Every male who is a German subject can be called upon to serve as a soldier from his seventeenth to his forty-fifth year. Though this is the law, men who are not strong, or have to support a family, or intend to be ministers of the Church, are excused from serving. Most German boys, however, know from childhood that they will have not only to learn a trade or prepare themselves for a profession, but become soldiers as well. As a rule, Germans begin their military training at twenty-one. If a young man has done well at one of the higher-grade schools, and can afford to keep himself, he need only spend one year with the colours; all others must be trained for two years if they are in the infantry, and three years if they are in the cavalry and horse artillery. When this time is over they go back to their work, and belong to the reserve. The two-year men serve five years with the first-line reserve, and the three-year men four years. Large bodies of the reserve are called up each year for exercise, but the same men are not called up more than once in two years, and, as a rule, their service amounts to two periods of about thirty days each. From the first-line reserve men pass into the Landwehr,[148] or second reserve, for five or six years if infantry, and for a longer period if cavalry. They, too, are called up from time to time for training, which lasts from a week to a fortnight. Finally, they pass into the Landsturm, and are only called up now and then for roll-call. Except in such special times of stress as the present war, the Landsturm are not required to serve in the field. Under ordinary conditions they leave the army altogether at the age of forty-five.
If you look at the diagram on page 150 you will see a comparison of the war strength of the great Powers of Europe. Germany has a population of 65,000,000, and her war strength is given as 4,500,000 men. As a last resource she can probably put into the field 7,500,000 men. Russia has a population of 141,000,000 in Europe alone; her war strength is given as 5,500,000 men, but as a last resource she can probably call to the colours about 15,000,000 men. You thus see that the great military Power which stands in the way of Germany's overlordship of Europe is Russia. Bismarck knew this well, and he constantly insisted that Germany should always keep on good terms with Russia. Since the Kaiser took the helm into his own hands, he has regarded the growth of the Russian army as a great menace to his power, and has come to the conclusion that unless something is done, and done quickly, to check it, he cannot realize his ambitions.
He and his advisers have always regarded Germany as the heir of Austria. For long it has been thought that Austria-Hungary would go to pieces on the death of Franz Josef, and that Austria would then be included in the German Empire. Now Austria, as you know, possesses Bosnia and Herzegovina, which would give Germany a footing in the Balkan Peninsula, and enable her to push her way southward to warm water ports on the Mediterranean Sea. Should Germany be able to capture Constantinople she would soon be mistress of Asia Minor, and would hold a very powerful position on the sea road to India. Her dreams of world-empire would then be likely to come true.
Germany has already obtained a footing in Asia Minor. As far back as 1898 the Emperor and the Empress visited the Sultan at Constantinople, where they were received with all honour, and the Empress accepted from the Commander of the Faithful[149] a present of diamonds worth £25,000. Then the Kaiser and his wife visited the Holy Land, and entered Jerusalem to take part in the dedication service of a German church within the walls of the Holy City. At this service His Majesty was attired in the white uniform of the Garde du Corps, with a white silk mantle such as was worn by the Crusaders. Before him was borne aloft the German Imperial standard.
In the following year, thanks to the Kaiser, the Sultan gave a German company permission to build a railway line from Konieh[150] to the Persian Gulf, by way of Bagdad.[151] You can easily understand that a German railway through Asia Minor to the head of the Persian Gulf would practically make Germany master of all the resources of this part of the world. France was not willing that the railway should be entirely German, so she was allowed to provide some of the money for it. Great Britain pointed out that the proposed line would be the shortest route to India, and that it would end in the territory of a chief with whom she had a special treaty, and that, therefore, Britain ought to have a hand in it too. There was a great deal of debate over the question, and at last it was agreed that the Germans should own four-tenths of the line, and that the other six-tenths should be owned by Frenchmen, Austrians, Swiss, Italians, and Turks. The railway was to end at Basra,[152] and was not to be continued to the Persian Gulf without Great Britain's consent. The Germans have spent between £16,000,000 and £18,000,000 on this railway, which was begun in 1912, and is now half built. In addition to the Bagdad railway, Germany has other important undertakings in Asia Minor, which is rich in coal and copper, oil and timber. The Russians, it should be noticed, have also large business interests in the same part of the Turkish Empire.
What connection has all this with the present war? Let us see. You already know that the late Sultan of Turkey was the friend of the Kaiser, and that he had given the Germans some very valuable rights in Asia Minor. Since that time German soldiers have trained the Turkish army, German money has been lent to the Turkish Government, and German influence has become so strong that we may almost regard Turkey as a German province. In 1908 there was a revolution in Turkey, the Sultan was forced from his throne, and his younger brother was chosen to take his place. In the autumn of 1912 the Balkan States declared war on Turkey, and beat her very badly. When the war was over all that remained of her territory in Europe was a little country less than twice the size of Wales. Serbia had become very powerful in the Balkan Peninsula.
Now this did not suit Germany at all. The Kaiser saw very clearly that if Serbia became the chief power in the Balkan Peninsula, Germany would be crushed out, and her interests in Asia Minor would be in great jeopardy. From the German point of view it was necessary that Serbia should be crippled as soon as possible.
You remember the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand, which I described to you in Chapter I. of this book. Austria was naturally very angry with Serbia, and was bent on making her pay dearly for her part in the crime. The Kaiser egged on Austria to fight Serbia, because he thought that a war would give him an excellent chance of reducing Serbia's strength, and of beginning that career of conquest on which he was now bent.
We know, from a French Yellow Book[153] which was published on December 1, 1914, why the Germans wanted war, and what preparations they made for it. From a dispatch written by the French Ambassador at Berlin, we gather that even in July 1913 the Germans thought war was "inevitable," for the following reasons. Since the Franco-German War the national pride of the Germans has been fostered to such an extent that they really do believe themselves to be the greatest, strongest, and most efficient nation of the world. They believe that they must have colonies in order to provide new markets and an outlet for their surplus population, and they are very sore at the failure of their attempts to win them. In this respect they are specially angry with us and with France, because they consider that we and the French gained a victory over them in 1911, when they tried to secure a part of Morocco,[154] and were prevented from doing so. They cannot bear to think that a country which they beat so badly in 1870 should dare to stand in their way. The great manufacturers of guns and armour plate, and the chief merchants, believe that war is "good business," and in this belief they are strongly backed up by the nobles and military class. The soldiers are naturally anxious for war because it is their profession, and because war brings that quick promotion which is impossible in time of peace. The nobles fear the growing power of the people, and believe that they will only be able to preserve their "rights" by means of a war which will turn the nation's thoughts away from plans of reform. Armed peace such as Germany has maintained for many years past is a crushing burden to the nation; it swallows up the money which might be expended on improving the condition of the people, and turns many of them into Socialists.
From a secret report to the German Government, which somehow fell into French hands in April 1914, we learn how Germany proposed to prepare for this "inevitable" war. Since 1906 she has increased her Army four times, and in 1913 she raised from her people a war levy of £50,000,000. Her object in increasing the Army and raising this money is clearly revealed in the course of the report—namely, to fortify and extend German power "throughout the whole world." In order to do this, the people were to be taught that Germany must begin a war because her foes were threatening her, and that such a war would make their burdens lighter, and give them many years of peace and prosperity. When the mind of the people was thus prepared, discontent was to be stirred up amongst the native peoples in the French and British possessions of North Africa and Egypt, as well as in Russia, so that these countries would be full of revolt when war was declared. As for the small states, such as Belgium and Holland, they must be forced to follow Germany, or be conquered. If Belgium should prepare to resist, she would be invaded, in spite of the treaty which guaranteed her neutrality. All this was arranged as far back as May 1913.
In November of the same year King Albert of Belgium[155] had an interview with the Emperor and General von Moltke. It was then very clear that the Kaiser had been won over by the war party. The French Minister suggests that the Kaiser was jealous of the popularity of his son, the Crown Prince, who was then the rising hope of the soldiers. If so, history had repeated itself. The Kaiser as a young man had played for popularity against his father; the Crown Prince had followed his father's example, and had tried to throw him into the shade. It is probable, too, that the Emperor was very angry with France, because she had strengthened her army by making her soldiers serve three years instead of two.
During this interview with King Albert the Kaiser and von Moltke threw off the mask. They told the King that the time had come to "finish" with France, and they assured him that the German army was bound to win. The object of this conversation was to show the King of the Belgians that he would be wise not to resist if war with France should arise. We shall see later on that King Albert was not moved from the path of honour either by threats or promises.
Meanwhile Germany was busy asking her ambassadors to find out what the other Powers would be likely to do if Austria and Germany were to join together to fight Serbia. Germany's agents at St. Petersburg[156] said that Russia would not stir; there were serious labour troubles in that country, and the Czar would be afraid to call his troops together for fear they would join with the strikers. From France came the news that the French army was not fit to fight. On the 13th of July a speaker in the French Parliament declared that the forts were weak; that there was not sufficient ammunition for the guns; and that the soldiers were without a sufficient supply of boots. If war broke out the men would have to take the field with one pair of boots, and only one reserve boot in their knapsacks, and that one would be thirty years old. Thus the Kaiser believed that Russia dared not fight, and that France could not fight, because, as in 1870, she was unprepared.
But what of Britain? The Kaiser had flooded the British Isles with spies, who kept him informed of every movement of our fleet and troops, and gave him full information about all our political affairs. These spies told him that civil war was about to break out in Ireland, and that the Government would have its hands so full at home that it could not possibly spare troops to fight on the Continent. The German ambassador in London did not believe all this talk about civil war, and he advised his Government not to rely upon it. The German Government, however, would not listen to him. The Kaiser knew better; he believed his spies.
Feeling sure, then, that Russia would not fight, that France could not resist, and that Great Britain would not interfere in what seemed to be a far-off quarrel, the Kaiser decided that "The Day," so long hoped for and prepared for, had come. In July of the present year he was ready to "let slip the dogs of war."
Every visitor to London knows Trafalgar Square, with its huge column guarded by four bronze lions. On the top of the column is a statue to the "little, one-armed, one-eyed hero of a hundred fights," our greatest seaman, Lord Nelson. South of Trafalgar Square is the broad, fine street known as Whitehall. On the right-hand side of Whitehall, just before you come to Westminster, is Downing Street, and on the left-hand side of Downing Street is the handsome pile of buildings known as the Foreign Office.
The head of the Foreign Office is the Foreign Secretary, that member of the British Cabinet who looks after British interests abroad. All letters sent by the British Government to foreign Governments are written and dispatched by him and his officials, and all communications from foreign Governments are received by him. He appoints and controls all the ambassadors and ministers and consuls who represent us in foreign countries. They are his agents and his eyes and ears in the countries to which they are sent. It is their duty to keep him well and promptly informed of all matters which directly or indirectly affect the British Empire in its relation to other Powers. So widespread is the British Empire, and so world-wide are its interests, that very little happens abroad that does not concern us in some way or other.
Our present Foreign Secretary is Sir Edward Grey.[157] He is the grandson of a famous statesman, and has been a member of Parliament since 1885, when he was twenty-three years of age. No Briton has studied foreign affairs more diligently than he, and all parties have the fullest confidence in him as a cool, prudent, far-seeing statesman. He is a great lover of peace, and it is due to him that the representatives of the warring nations of the Balkan Peninsula were induced to meet in conference and come to terms in May 1913.
Let me remind you once again of the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand at Sarajevo on the 23rd of June 1914.[158] When Sir Edward Grey heard the tragic news, he saw at once that it might lead to a great war. He was anxious to know what Austria proposed to do in the matter, but was kept in the dark. He spoke to the German Ambassador about it, and was told that Austria was certainly going to take some step, and that the outlook was grave. On the 22nd of July our representative in Berlin told him that the German Secretary of State[159] thought that Austria and Serbia alone were concerned in the quarrel, and that outsiders ought not to interfere. Next day Sir Edward Grey met the Austrian Ambassador, who explained to him what Austria was going to demand[160] from Serbia. He also informed him that Austria would fix a time limit within which Serbia was to reply in a manner satisfactory to Austria, and that if the reply was not satisfactory, war would be declared.
At once Sir Edward Grey pointed out that the time limit was really a threat of war, and that it might anger Russia, and make her get ready to fight against Austria. You can easily see what the result would be. If Russia joined Serbia against Austria, Germany, as Austria's ally, would fight for her; and if this came about, France would be sure to help her ally, Russia, so that a vast and terrible European war would arise—the vastest and most terrible conflict that the world has ever known. To this the Austrian Ambassador replied that it all depended on Russia; but Sir Edward Grey reminded him that it takes two to keep the peace, as well as two to make a quarrel.
As we already know, the Note was sent to Serbia with a time limit of forty-eight hours. As soon as Russia received a copy of the Note, she felt that it was meant as an indirect challenge to her. A Council of Ministers was held to consider the question. It was fortunate that the President of the French Republic was then paying a visit to the Czar, and that the two allies could take immediate counsel together.
On the 24th of July the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs told the British Ambassador in Petrograd that Austria was trying to bring about war with Serbia, and that she would never have done this had Germany not been backing her up. He also said that France would stand side by side with Russia if war should break out.
During the forty-eight hours allowed by the Austrian Note Sir Edward Grey made three attempts to bring about peace. First, he tried to get the time limit extended, and Great Britain, France, and Russia united in urging Austria to give Serbia more time. He begged Germany to join with the other Powers in trying to persuade Austria to do this, but all that Germany would consent to do was to "pass on" the message to Vienna. Next, Sir Edward Grey tried to get Great Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—all of whom had no interest in Serbia—to unite in an attempt to bring Russia and Austria to a friendly agreement. All the Powers mentioned were ready to do this except Germany. She said that she had no objection to the course proposed if war should be threatened between Austria and Russia. Sir Edward Grey's third effort was to advise Serbia to do as much as possible to meet Austria's demands.
I have already told you that on the 25th of July Serbia accepted all Austria's terms, and only asked for delay in order to make new laws by which she could carry them out, and for information as to the way in which Austrian officials were to take part in Serbia's police and law-court work. Every one hoped that this would end the quarrel; but the same evening the Serbian reply was declared unsatisfactory, and the Austrian Minister left Belgrade, thus showing clearly that war would follow. Serbia at once ordered her troops to mobilize.
Sir Edward Grey learnt what the Serbian reply was to be an hour or two before it was handed to Austria. At once he begged Germany to press Austria to accept it, but again Germany would only pass on his suggestion to Vienna. Directly afterwards the German Ambassador in Vienna told our ambassador that Serbia had merely pretended to give way, and that her promises were only a sham.
During the next four days—26th July to 29th July—Sir Edward Grey strove with all his might to bring Russia and Austria to agreement. On the evening of the 28th the German Chancellor[161] told our ambassador that he was trying to bring the Russians and Austrians to agreement. This was very good news to Sir Edward Grey, who now thought that he saw a chance of staving off the European war which was threatening. He had already proposed that the German, French, and Italian ambassadors should meet him in London, to try to bring about a settlement; but though France and Italy had agreed to this proposal, Germany had refused, and had said that it would be better if Austria and Russia could be persuaded to come to some agreement between themselves. Now that Germany declared that she was working for peace at Vienna and Petrograd, Sir Edward Grey sent a telegram to the German Government, on the afternoon of the 29th, telling them that he would agree to any method of bringing Russia and Austria together that might be proposed. All that Germany had to do was to "press the button in the interests of peace."
A strange reply came to this telegram. It came from Sir Edward Goschen,[162] our ambassador in Berlin, towards midnight of the same day. He had just seen the German Chancellor, who said that if Austria should be attacked by Russia, Germany would have to fight for Austria, her ally. He then made an amazing offer to Britain. If Great Britain would promise not to fight, Germany on her part would promise to take no part of France from her. "But what about the French colonies?"[163] asked Sir Edward Goschen. To which the Chancellor replied that he could give no such promise with regard to them. In answer to other questions, he said that the action of France might force Germany to invade Belgium.
Now this was very startling. For the first time we knew that Germany was about to invade France, and that she would probably march her troops through Belgium for that purpose. We also knew that Germany was so anxious to keep us out of the war that she was prepared to make a bargain with us. "What the German Chancellor asks us in effect," said Sir Edward Grey, "is to engage to stand by while French colonies are taken and France is beaten, so long as Germany does not take French territory as distinct from the colonies." What answer should you have given to Germany if you had been our Foreign Secretary? I think it would have been just the answer which Sir Edward Grey gave. He told Germany that we could not possibly accept such a proposal, nor could we permit Germany to break her solemn pledge to Belgium and advance through that country.
On July 31 there was a gleam of hope in the darkness. Russia offered to stop all her military preparations if Austria would agree that all the European Powers were now concerned in her quarrel with Serbia, and if she would strike out of the Note those demands[164] which would destroy Serbia's independence. Strange to say, Austria agreed to this proposal—to the very thing she had refused to do in the early days of the crisis—that is, to discuss the whole question of the Note to Serbia. Perhaps you wonder why Austria should give way at the last moment. The fact was that Austria had been assured by the German Ambassador that Russia would not and could not fight. She now discovered that Russia was quite prepared for war. She had been deceived and misled, and she was eager to draw back. You will soon see that no chance was given to her of doing this.
Just at the moment when men were beginning to breathe more freely, and to believe that war might yet be averted, the thunderbolt fell from the blue. On the very day when the horizon was brightening, the Kaiser sent an impudent message to the Czar, ordering him to cease mobilizing his troops within twelve hours under pain of war! No answer was returned, and at midnight on the 1st of August Germany declared war against Russia. Armageddon had begun.