Clarendon told me he had seen Brunnow, and after recapitulating to him all the various causes for alarm, resting on facts or on rumours, especially with regard to Russia and her intentions, he said that our Government had received the word of honour of the Emperor that he had no sinister or hostile intentions, and disclaimed those that had been imputed to him, and that on his word they relied with such implicit confidence that he had not the slightest fear of disquietude. Brunnow was exceedingly pleased, and said that was the way to treat the Emperor, who would be excessively gratified, nothing being dearer to him than the confidence and good opinion of this country, and he said he would send off a courier the next day, and Clarendon should dictate his despatch. The instructions given to Menschikoff have been enormously exaggerated, the most serious and offensive parts that have been stated (the nomination of the Greek Patriarch, &c.) being totally false.[1] I asked what they were, and he said nothing but a string of conditions about shrines and other ecclesiastical trifles. Walewski seems to have done well here, condemning the conduct of his own Government, and not concealing from them his own opinion, and entirely going along with us. It was on Saturday night that the courier arrived with Rose's and Dundas's despatches, and a few of the Cabinet met on Sunday at the Admiralty to talk the matter over. Clarendon sent for John Russell from Richmond, and he thought it advisable to summon Palmerston to this conciliabule, to keep him in good humour, which it had the effect of doing. There were himself, Palmerston, John Russell, Aberdeen, and Graham. He had written to Lord John on Saturday night, and sent him the despatches; he got an answer from him, full of very wild talk of strong measures to be taken, and a fleet sent to the Baltic to make peremptory demands on the Emperor of Russia. This, however, he took no notice of, and did not say one word to Aberdeen about it, quietly letting it drop, and accordingly he heard no more about it, nobody, he said, but me, knowing what Lord John had proposed. I asked him what were Palmerston's views. He replied that he did not say much, and acquiesced in his and Aberdeen's prudent and reserved intentions, but he could see, from a few words that casually escaped him, that he would have been ready to join in more stringent and violent measures if they had been proposed. His hatred of Russia is not extinguished, but as it was, there was no expressed difference of opinion, and a general agreement. He said he had had a prejudice against Gladstone, but he now liked him very much, and Granville had already told me the same thing.

Aberdeen likes his post and enjoys the consciousness of having done very well in it. He is extremely liberal, but of a wise and well-reasoned liberality. As it has turned out, he is far fitter for the post he occupies than Lansdowne would have been, both morally and physically.

The Queen is devoted to this Government, and expressed to Aberdeen the liveliest apprehension lest they should get themselves into some scrape with the India Bill, and entreated he would run no risks in it. Aberdeen, in announcing this one day to the Cabinet, said that the best thing for them to do was to bring forward a measure of so liberal and popular a character as to make any serious opposition impossible. Clarendon agreed in this, and I told him that this had long been my own idea, and that what they ought to do was to throw open the civil and military appointments to competition, and to grant appointments after examination to qualified candidates, just as degrees are given at the universities. We passed the whole evening together, talking over all matters of interest, and he told me everything he knew himself.

April 4th.—I went to Althorp last week, and returned for a Council on Friday. After it Graham and I stayed behind, when he talked about the Government and their prospects, which he thought pretty good; they were going on in great harmony, and the greater, he thought, because they had originally had such diversities of opinion. This led to a disposition to mutual concession, and feelings of delicacy towards each other. The Queen is extremely attached to Aberdeen, more than to any minister she had ever had. Lord John's position anomalous and unsatisfactory, and always a question whether he would not become disgusted and back out. Graham said that Clarendon was doing admirably—better than he had anticipated.

Lady Lyttelton, whom I met at Althorp, told me a great deal about the Queen and her children; nothing particularly interesting. She said the Queen was very fond of them, but severe in her manner, and a strict disciplinarian in her family. She described the Prince of Wales to be extremely shy and timid, with very good principles, and particularly an exact observer of truth; the Princess Royal is remarkably intelligent. I wrote this because it will hereafter be curious to see how the boy grows up, and what sort of performance follows this promise, though I shall not live to see it. She spoke in very high terms of the Queen herself, of the Prince, and of the simplicity and happiness of her private and domestic life.

CHAPTER III.

Weakness of the Government—Gladstone's Budget—A Conversation with Disraeli—Suicidal Conduct of the Tories—Their Irritation—A Charge against Mr. Gladstone defeated—The Stafford Committee—Harmony of the Government—Electoral Corruption—Impending War—Success of the Government—Macaulay's Speech on the Judges' Exclusion Bill—Erroneous Predictions from Paris—Unsettled Policy as to the War—Lord John's Anti-Catholic Speech—The English and French Fleets sail for the Dardanelles—Conduct of Austria—Russia means War—Attacks by the Opposition—Explanations desired—Attempted Mediation—Lord Aberdeen's Confidence shaken—Divisions of Opinion—Terms of Accommodation—Lord Palmerston's Views—Prospect of Peace—Division in the Lords on the Succession Duties Bill—Friendly Relations of Lord Palmerston and Lord Clarendon—Fears of War—Hopes of Peace—Lord Palmerston and Mr. Cobden—Rejection of the Vienna Note—Lord Palmerston courted by the Tories—Lord John Russell's Position—The Duke of Bedford's Part in the last Crisis—Dangers at Constantinople—Lord Stratford's Influence—Suspected Intrigue of France with Russia—Lord Palmerston goes to Balmoral—Sir James Graham's View—Lord Stratford's Conduct—Importance of the Vienna Note—A Cabinet summoned.

London, April 21st, 1853.—I have had such a bad fit of gout in my hand, that I have been unable for some time past to write at all, though there has been plenty to write about. The Government has been sustaining defeats in the House of Commons on detached questions of taxation, much to their annoyance and embarrassment, and which were more serious from the inference to be drawn from them than for their intrinsic importance. They were caused by the meddling and absurd crotchets of some of their friends, and the malignity and unprincipled conduct of their enemies: the first bringing forward motions for reduction of certain items, merely to gratify clients or constituents, and the Tories joining with the Radicals in voting for things which they opposed when they were themselves in office, reckless of consistency or of consequences. But the whole affair was unpleasant, as it displayed strikingly how little authority the Government has over the House of Commons, and the difficulty, if not impossibility, of carrying on the service of the country.

These little battles were, however, of little moment compared with the great event of Gladstone's Budget, which came off on Monday night. He had kept his secret so well, that nobody had the least idea what it was to be, only it oozed out that the Income Tax was not to be differentiated. He spoke for five hours, and by universal consent it was one of the grandest displays and most able financial statement that ever was heard in the House of Commons; a great scheme, boldly, skilfully, and honestly devised, disdaining popular clamour and pressure from without, and the execution of it absolute perfection. Even those who do not admire the Budget, or who are injured by it, admit the merit of the performance. It has raised Gladstone to a great political elevation, and, what is of far greater consequence than the measure itself, has given the country assurance of a man equal to great political necessities, and fit to lead parties and direct governments.

April 22nd.—I met Gladstone last night, and had the pleasure of congratulating him and his wife, which I did with great sincerity, for his success is a public benefit. They have been overwhelmed with compliments and congratulations. Prince Albert and the Queen both wrote to him, and John Russell, who is spitefully reported to have been jealous, has, on the contrary, shown the warmest interest and satisfaction in his success. The only one of his colleagues who may have been mortified is Charles Wood, who must have compared Gladstone's triumph with his own failures. From all one can see at present, it promises certain success, though many parts of the Budget are cavilled at. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to find any common ground on which Radicals or Irish can join the Derbyites to overthrow it, and the sanguine expectations which the latter have been entertaining for some time, of putting the Government into some inextricable fix, have given way to perplexity and despondency; and they evidently do not know what to do, nor how to give effect to their rancour and spite. Lord Derby had a great meeting not many days ago, at which he recommended union, and cheered them on in opposition, of course for form's sake, talking of moderation and principles, neither of which he cares a fig for. Mischief and confusion, vengeance against the coalition, and taking the chance of what may happen next, are all that he and Disraeli are bent upon. I met the latter worthy in the street just before the Budget, a day or two previous. He asked me what I thought of the state of affairs, and I told him I thought it very unpleasant, and it seemed next to impossible to carry on the Government at all, everybody running riot in the House of Commons, and following his own fancies and crotchets; nor did I see how it could be otherwise in the present state of parties and the country; that since Peel's administration, which was a strong Government, there had been and apparently there could be none. The present Government was not strong, and they were perpetually defeated, on minor points indeed, but in a way that showed they had no power to work through Parliament. I said of course they would dissolve if this continued, but that Gladstone's Budget might make a difference one way or the other. Disraeli scouted the idea of a dissolution, by which, he said, they would certainly gain nothing. Why, he asked, did not the Peelites join us again, as they might have done, and got as good terms as they have now, and then there would have been a strong Government again? As I don't want to quarrel with anybody, I restrained what it was on my lips to say—'You could not possibly expect them to join you'—but I did tell him that, even if the present Government could not maintain itself, of all impossible things the most impossible was the restoration of his Government tale quale, to which he made no reply. To be sure, the Protectionist seceders from Peel have now drunk the cup of mortification, disgrace, and disaster to the very dregs. They are a factious and (as I hope) impotent Opposition, under the unprincipled guidance of men, who, clever and plausible though they be, are totally destitute of wisdom, sincerity, and truth. They have not only lost all the Protection for the maintenance of which they made such struggles and sacrifices, but they have likewise brought upon themselves the still heavier blow to the landed interest which is going to be inflicted in the shape of the legacy duty. Had they possessed more foresight, and been less violent and unreasonable, this would not have happened to them; for if Peel's original Government had held together, and they had been content to accept his guidance, no Budget would have contained this measure. Schemes might have been devised to lighten their burdens, or to increase the compensations they really have obtained in other ways; but, be this as it may, they would certainly have been saved from this direct impost, which I doubt if Peel himself ever contemplated, but which he would certainly have spared them if they had not deserted him, nor would his successors have departed from his policy in this respect. But from first to last their conduct has been suicidal in every respect.

May 3rd.—The Government is going on very flourishingly. A capital division in the House of Lords on the Canada Clergy Reserves Bill,[1] on which occasion there was a scene between Derby and Clarendon, in which both were, to my mind, in the wrong. The whole affair appears in all the newspapers, but what does not appear is the rather absurd termination of it, when, after much excitement and strong language interchanged, the belligerents ended by drinking each other's healths in water across the table. The victory in the Lords has been followed up by one still more important in the House of Commons on the Income Tax, which was carried by 71, a great many of the Opposition voting with Government, much to the disgust of their friends. These divisions have filled the Derbyites with rage and despair, and nothing can exceed their depression and their abuse of the Budget and its authors. What vexes and provokes them so much is the ascendency and triumph of the Peelites. They could endure it in the Whigs, but their hatred of the name and party of Peel is inextinguishable.

May 15th.—At Newmarket last week, during which the Budget was making its way very successfully through the House of Commons, where Gladstone has it all his own way. The Speaker told me he was doing his business there admirably well. While I was at Newmarket came out the strange story of Gladstone and the attempt to extort money from him before the police magistrate. It created for the moment great surprise, curiosity, and interest, but has almost entirely passed away already, not having been taken up politically, and there being a general disposition to believe his story and to give him credit for having had no improper motive or purpose. Nevertheless it is a very strange affair, and has not yet been satisfactorily explained. It is creditable in these days of political rancour and bitterness that no malignant attempt has been made to vilify him by his opponents or by the hostile part of the press. On the contrary, the editor of the 'Morning Herald' wrote him a very handsome letter in his own name and in that of the proprietor, assuring him of their confidence in his purity and innocence, and that nothing would induce them to put anything offensive to him in the paper, and they had purposely inserted the police report in an obscure part of the paper. It is very fortunate for Gladstone that he was not intimidated and tempted to give the man money, but had the courage to face the world's suspicions and meet the charge in so public a manner.

The Stafford Committee has at length closed its proceedings, after exposures of the most disgraceful kind, which are enormously damaging not only to Augustus Stafford himself but to Lord Derby and his Government. The Duke of Northumberland comes clear out of it as to corruption, but cuts a wretched and ridiculous figure, having failed to perform the duties or to exercise the authority of a First Lord while he was at the Admiralty. Disraeli's evidence was nothing but an attempt to shirk the question and involve it in a confusion of characteristic verbiage which only excited ridicule. This affair has done great harm to them as a party, and served to make them more odious and contemptible than they were before.[1] They are now irretrievably defeated, and though they may give much trouble and throw difficulties and obstructions in the way of the Government, it is all they can do. Every day adds to the strength and consistency of the Government, both from their gaining favour and acquiring influence in the country, and from the ruin in which the Tory party is involved, and the total impossibility of their rallying again so as to form another Government. This latter consideration has already produced the adhesion of some moderate and sensible men who take a dispassionate view of affairs and who wish for a strong and efficient Government, and it will produce still greater effects of the same kind.

May 22nd.—I met in a train a day or two ago Graham and the Speaker, not having seen Graham for a long time. Since my friends have been in office I have hardly ever set eyes on them or had any communication with them. Graham seemed in excellent spirits about their political state and prospects, all owing to Gladstone and the complete success of his Budget. The long and numerous Cabinets, which were attributed by the 'Times' to disunion, were occupied in minute consideration of the Budget, which was there fully discussed, and Gladstone spoke in the Cabinet one day for three hours, rehearsing his speech in the House of Commons, though not quite at such length. Graham again said Clarendon was doing admirably. Palmerston he thinks much changed and more feeble, his energy much less, and his best days gone by. He thinks Lord John's position without office an unfortunate one, and regrets he did not stay at the Foreign Office or take another; he thinks his influence impaired by having none. He talked of a future Head, as Aberdeen is always ready to retire at any moment, but it is very difficult to find anyone to succeed him. I suggested Gladstone. He shook his head and said it would not do; and he was for John Russell, but owned there were difficulties there too. He considered Derby and the Tories irretrievably ruined, their characters so damaged by Stafford's Committee and other things; he spoke of the grand mistakes Derby had made. Gladstone's object certainly was for a long time to be at the head of the Conservative party in the House of Commons, and to join with Derby, who might in fact have had all the Peelites if he would have chosen to ally himself with them instead of with Disraeli; thus the latter had been the cause of the ruin of the party. Graham thought that Derby had committed himself to Disraeli in George Bentinck's lifetime in some way that prevented his shaking him off, as it would have been his interest to do. The Peelites would have united with Derby, but would have nothing to do with Disraeli. Bad as the cases were that had come forth at the election committees, that of Liverpool was worse than any of them, and would create a great scandal. Forbes Mackenzie could not face it, and would probably retire; but it is doubtful if this would prevent an enquiry and exposure, and when boundless corruption appeared at such a place as Liverpool, with its numerous constituency, it was a blow to the representative system itself, and showed the futility of attempts to destroy bribery and improper influence.

May 30th.—Great alarm the last two or three days at an approaching rupture between Russia and Turkey, as, if it takes place, nobody can pretend to say what the consequences may be. Vast indignation of course against the Emperor of Russia, who certainly appears to have departed from the moderate professions which he made to Seymour a short time ago, and the assurances that were given to us and France. But Clarendon, whom I saw yesterday, is rather disposed to give him credit for more moderate and pacific intentions than his conduct seems to warrant. He says that he is persuaded the Emperor has no idea of the view that is taken of his proceedings here, and that he thinks he is requiring no more than he is entitled to; and it is only the other day that Nesselrode congratulated Seymour on the prospect of everything being satisfactorily settled, having no doubt of the Turks accepting the last proposals made to them, a copy of which Nesselrode showed him. Still, though matters look very black, Clarendon is not without hopes of war being averted and some means found of patching up the affair, the Emperor having promised that he will in no case resort to ulterior measures without giving us notice of his intention. The difficulty for him now is to recede with honour, as it would be to advance without danger. He has once before receded after to a certain degree committing himself, and he may not choose to do so a second time. Then he is naturally provoked with the French, who are in fact the real cause of this by their intrigues and extortions about the holy places; and we suspect that he is, besides this, provoked at the Montenegrin affair having been settled by Austria without his having a finger in that pie. All these considerations combined make great confusion and difficulty. Brunnow is in mortal agony, dreading above all things the possibility of his having to leave this country.

The Government continues to go on very well; the Opposition got up a debate on the legacy duties in the House of Lords the other night, which only served to prove how entirely Derby's influence has declined even there. They had thought themselves sure of beating the Government, but not only were they defeated, but accident alone (people shut out and absent) prevented their being defeated by a considerable majority. The Cabinet is going on in the greatest harmony, and the men who were strangers up to the time of its formation have taken to each other prodigiously. Aberdeen unfortunately wants the qualities which made Lord Lansdowne so good a leader, and is rather deficient in tact and temper in the House of Lords as he used to be formerly, when he attacked Lord Grey's Government and Palmerston's administration of foreign affairs always with too much asperity; but in spite of these defects he has not done ill even there, and in the Cabinet he is both liked and respected, being honest, straightforward, and firm, very fair, candid, and unassuming. Granville tells me that of the whole Cabinet he thinks Aberdeen has the most pluck, Gladstone a great deal, and Graham the one who has the least. He speaks very well of Molesworth, sensible, courageous, and conciliatory, but quite independent and plain spoken in his opinions.

June 1st.—John Russell made an imprudent speech the night before last on the Irish Church, giving great offence to the Irish and the Catholics. He could not help, as leader of the Government, opposing a proposition having for its object the destruction of the Irish Church, but he might have done it with more tact and discretion, and not in a way to elicit the cheers of the Tories. The Tail will pay him off for this whenever they can. Quantum mutatus ab illo, who broke up a Government for the sake of an appropriation clause.

Last night Macaulay reappeared in the House of Commons, and in a speech of extraordinary power and eloquence threw out the Judges' Exclusion Bill.[1] It was the first time he had spoken, and though his physical strength is impaired he showed that his mental powers are undiminished.

Senior called on me a day or two ago, just returned from Paris, where he has been living and conversing with all the notabilities (principally of the Liberal party), and he tells me there is but one opinion amongst them, that this Empire cannot last, and they only differ as to the time it may last. Most of them think it will be short. Thiers gives it only a year, Duch?tel alone thinks it will go on for some years. The unpopularity of Louis Napoleon increases and his discredit likewise, and as soon as the unpopularity shall extend to the army, it will be all over with him. The Opposition which has sprung up, which has increased rapidly and will increase still more in the Corps L?gislatif, is deemed to be very important and significant, and they think it will be impossible for him to go on with such a body so constituted and disposed, and he will have to decide upon suffering the embarrassment it will cause him, or having recourse to a coup d'?tat, a measure which would be hazardous. There are no fresh adhesions to the Court beyond the half dozen men of rank or name who have already joined it, and who are hated and despised for having done so. While such is the opinion of the people of mark at Paris, they are nevertheless sensible of the danger which would accompany a counter revolution, and of the uncertainty of what might follow, what influences might prevail, and what form of government be adopted; but they seem generally to think that while in the first instance there would be a succession of provisional arrangements and fleeting transitory governments, it would end in the restoration of the monarchy under Henri V., but that this would not take place by the acceptance and triumph of any divine hereditary right, but must be adopted by the nation and ratified by a national vote.

June 5th.—I saw Clarendon on Friday morning for a few minutes; he takes a very gloomy view of the Russo-Turkish question, and is greatly disgusted at having been deceived by the Emperor; he says he is harassed to death with the whole affair, and with the multiplicity of business he has besides; he has a difficult task to perform, taking a middle position in the Cabinet between the opposite opinions of those who are for more stringent measures and those who, like himself, are for patience and moderation. Palmerston, in whom his ancient Russian antipathies are revived, is for vigour, and as in former times 'leading John Russell by the nose,' Clarendon and Aberdeen for moderation; but he is beset by different opinions and written suggestions and proposals, and all this worries him exceedingly. I asked him how the Court was, and he said very reasonable, their opinions being influenced of course by Aberdeen.

He talked with great disgust of John Russell's speech on the Irish Church, how unfair it was as well as unwise, and how reckless of the damage it caused to the Government, and the embarrassing and awkward situation in which he thereby placed many of their supporters. These are the general sentiments with regard to that speech, which was neither more nor less than speaking the Durham letter over again, and, considering what that famous letter cost him, he might have been expected to steer clear of such a scrape. But he is more than ever the creature of impulse and of temper, and he seems to have lost a great deal of his tact and discretion, and certainly he is no longer fit to be either head of a Government or leader of the House of Commons, and perhaps the latter position in such a Government as this suits him still less than the former would. When I came to town yesterday morning I found that several of the Irish Roman Catholic members of the Government, occupying subordinate offices (Messrs. Keogh, Monsell, and Sadleir), had resigned in consequence of Lord John Russell's speech, but an hour afterwards I learnt that they had been induced to remain by an assurance from Lord Aberdeen that Lord John did not express the sentiments of the Government on this subject.

Charles Wood brought on the India Bill on Friday night in a speech of unexampled prolixity and dulness. There is not yet time to ascertain how the plan is likely to be received, but I suspect it will meet with a great deal of opposition, although, as it is more favourable to the existing interests than was expected, it will very likely pass, as, if Leadenhall Street was to go further, it would certainly fare worse.

St. Leonards, June 7th.—I am here for Ascot, a lovely place and divine weather. The affair with the Irish has ended as harmlessly as anything so awkward could do. Mr. G. H. Moore asked some rather impertinent questions in the House of Commons on Monday, which Lord John answered in an easy, nonchalant, jesting manner. The House laughed, nobody said anything, and there it ended, but the Brigade will probably seek opportunities of showing their teeth and of revenging themselves on Lord John. It has been rather mortifying for him, but he has taken it very quietly, and Aberdeen's letter to Monsell was shown to him and received his assent. The French are behaving very well about the Eastern question, and I begin to think that it will in the end blow over, as diplomacy will probably hit upon some expedient for enabling the Emperor of Russia to do what his real interests evidently point out.

June 13th.—I came back from Ascot on Friday, having met Clarendon on Thursday on the course, who gave me an account of the state of affairs. On Saturday I met Walewski at dinner, and had much talk with him, and yesterday I saw Clarendon again. The great event has been the sailing of our fleet from Malta to join the French fleet at the mouth of the Dardanelles, to the unspeakable satisfaction of the French Government, who desire nothing so much as to exhibit to all Europe an entente cordiale with us; and Walewski said to me that, however the affair might end, this great advantage they had at all events obtained.[1] The Emperor of Russia will be deeply mortified when he hears of this junction; for besides that it will effectually bar the approach of his fleet to Constantinople, if he ever contemplated it, there is nothing he dislikes and dreads so much as the intimate union of France and England. His Majesty is now so greatly excited that nothing can stop him, and he told Seymour the other day that he would spend his last rouble and his last soldier rather than give way. Still he professes that he aims at no more than a temporary occupation of the Principalities, and renounces all purpose of conquest. The Russian army will therefore certainly march in, and it will be the business of the other Governments to restrain the Turks and prevent a collision, which Walewski thinks they can certainly do.

Austria holds the same language that we do, but will not act. Clarendon sent for Count Colloredo on Saturday (who never hears from Buol), and set before him in detail all the dangers with which Austria is menaced by the possibility of war breaking out in the East, and above all by that of France being brought into the field in hostility with Austria. In such a case the French would be quite unscrupulous, and excite all the revolutionary spirit, which, though now repressed, is thickly scattered over every part of the Austrian Empire, from Milan to Hungary. Colloredo acknowledged the truth of the representation, and promised to report textually to Buol what Clarendon said.

All now depends on the Emperor Nicholas himself. If he adheres to his determination not to advance beyond the Principalities, time will be afforded for negotiations, and some expedient may be found for enabling him to recede without discredit, and without danger to his own prestige at home. The French and English feel alike on this point, and are conscious that the Emperor has gone too far to recede. He is pushed on by an ardent and fanatical party in Russia, and is not entirely his own master. Both Governments are therefore willing to make allowance for the exigencies of his position, and to assist him to the uttermost of their power in getting honourably out of the scrape into which he has plunged himself and all Europe.

June 22nd.—The Opposition papers (especially the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Press,' Disraeli's new journal) have been making the most violent attacks on Aberdeen and Clarendon, calling for their impeachment on the ground of their conduct in this Eastern quarrel, particularly charging them with having been cognisant of and approved of Menschikoff's demands, which have occasioned all the hubbub. At last it was thought necessary to make a statement in reply, which was done by the 'Times' on Thursday last. The article was a good one, but contained an inaccuracy, about which Brunnow wrote a long but friendly letter of complaint to Clarendon. The day after this, another article was inserted to set the matter right, with which Brunnow was quite satisfied; but the explanations of the 'Times' failed to stem the torrent of abuse, and the Tory papers only repeated their misrepresentations with greater impudence and malignity than before. It was thought necessary a stop should be put to this, and it was proposed to Clarendon to let discussions come on in both Houses, moved by Layard in the Commons, and Clanricarde in the Lords, which would afford an opportunity for the only effectual contradiction, Ministerial statements in Parliament. Last night I met him at the Palace, when we talked the matter over. He is still of opinion that it is essential to delay the explanations and put off all discussion till the matter is decided one way or another. He thinks so in reference to the case itself, leaving out of consideration the convenience of the Government; he thinks that any discussion in the House of Commons will elicit a disposition for peace ? tout prix, which would seriously embarrass affairs, and only confirm Russia in the course she is pursuing. I do not think so, but his opinions are founded on what he hears Cobden has said, and on the animus of the peace party. He told me again what a task his is in the Cabinet, standing between and mediating between Aberdeen and Palmerston, whose ancient and habitual ideas of foreign policy are brought by this business into antagonism, and he says the difficulty is made greater by Aberdeen's unfortunate manner, who cannot avoid some of that sneering tone in discussion which so seriously affects his popularity in the House of Lords. He is therefore obliged to take a great deal upon himself, in order to prevent any collision between Palmerston and Aberdeen. It appears that Palmerston proposed on Saturday last that the entrance of the Russians into the Principalities should be considered a casus belli, in which, however, he was overruled and gave way. The Cabinet did not come to a vote upon it, but the general sentiment went with Aberdeen and Clarendon, and against Palmerston. He seems to have given way with a good grace, and hitherto nothing has occurred of a disagreeable character; on the contrary, both Clarendon and Granville tell me Palmerston has behaved very well. Clarendon thinks (and in this I concur) that the country would never forgive the Government for going to war, unless they could show that it was absolutely necessary and that they had exhausted every means of bringing about a pacific solution of the question, and nobody here would care one straw about the Russian occupation of Moldavia and Wallachia.

That all means have not been exhausted is clear from this fact. The Austrians, who are more interested than anybody, have moved heaven and earth to effect a settlement, and the Emperor of Russia has himself asked for their 'bons offices' for that end. They have entreated the Turks on the one hand to strike out some mezzo termine compatible with their dignity and with their previous refusals of Menschikoff's terms, promising that they will urge its acceptance on the Emperor with all their force, and on the other hand they have implored the Emperor to delay the occupation of the Principalities, so that by temporising, mediation, and a joint action and a judicious employment of diplomatic resources and astuteness, it is still possible some mode may be hit upon of terminating the quarrel.

July 9th.—For the last fortnight or three weeks little has occurred which is worth noting. The Eastern Question drags on, as it is likely to do. Aberdeen, who ten days ago spoke very confidently of its being settled, now takes a more desponding view, and the confidence he has hitherto reposed in the Emperor of Russia is greatly shaken. Clarendon has long thought the prospect very gloomy, but they are still endeavouring to bring about an accommodation. The question resolves itself into this: what are the real wishes and views of the Emperor? If his present conduct is the execution of a long prepared purpose, and he thinks the time favourable for the destruction of Turkey, no efforts will be availing, and he will listen to no proposals that we can possibly make. If, on the contrary, he is conscious that he has got into a dilemma, and he wishes to extricate himself from it by any means not dishonourable to himself, and such as would not degrade him in the eyes of his own subjects, then, no doubt, diplomatic astuteness will sooner or later hit upon some expedient by which the quarrel may be adjusted. Which of these alternatives is the true one, time alone can show. Meanwhile the expense to which the Turks are put in the wretched state of their finances will prove ruinous to them, and, end how it may, the fall of the Turkish dominion has been accelerated by what has already taken place. There has been a great deal of discussion about bringing on debates on the Eastern Question in both Houses, but all the leading men of all parties have deprecated discussion, and it was finally determined last night that none should take place. Disraeli alone, who cares for nothing but making mischief, tried to bring it on, but in the House of Lords Derby took a different and more becoming course, and recommended Clanricarde to give it up. Disraeli urged Layard to persevere. Granville told me yesterday that while he lamented that Aberdeen was not a more judicious and conciliating leader in the House of Lords, and was so inferior in this respect to Lord Lansdowne, he liked him very much, thought he was a very good Prime Minister, and, above all, anything but deficient in political courage, in which respect he was by no means inferior to Palmerston himself.

The Government have been going on well enough on the whole. Their immense majority on the India Bill was matter of general surprise, and showed the wretched tactics of Disraeli, as well as his small influence over his party, for he could not get one hundred of the Tories to go with him. A few small holes have been made in Gladstone's Budget, but nothing of consequence. Tom Baring, however, told me he thought Gladstone had made some great mistakes, and that Graham would have been a better Chancellor of the Exchequer; but this I much doubt. Popularity is very necessary to a Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Graham would never have been so persuasive with the House as Gladstone.

July 12th.—The 'Times' newspaper, always famous for its versatility and inconsistency, has lately produced articles on the Eastern Question on the same day of the most opposite characters, one warlike and firm, the next vehemently pacific by some other hand. This is of small importance, but it is indicative of the difference which exists in the Cabinet on the subject, and the explanation of the inconsistency of the 'Times' is to be found in the double influence which acts on the paper. All along Palmerston has been urging a vigorous policy, and wished to employ more peremptory language and stronger measures towards Russia, while Aberdeen has been very reluctant to do as much as we have done, and would have been well content to advise Turkey to accept the last ultimatum of Russia, and so terminate what he considers a senseless and mischievous quarrel. Clarendon has had to steer between these two extremes, and while moderating the ardour of Palmerston, to stimulate Aberdeen, and persuade him to adopt a course congenial to public opinion in this country, which, however inclined to peace and abhorrent of war, is not at all disposed to connive at the aggrandisement of Russia, or to submit to the insolent dictation of the Emperor. The majority of the Cabinet have supported Clarendon, and approximate more nearly to the pacific policy of Aberdeen than to the stringent measures of Palmerston. When the two articles appeared in the 'Times,' to which I particularly allude, Clarendon approved of the first, and found great fault with the other, while Aberdeen wrote to Delane and expressed his strong approbation of the second, and his conviction that the public would sooner or later take the views therein set forth. Clarendon tells me that he has no doubt Aberdeen has on many occasions held language in various quarters that was not prudent under the circumstances, and was calculated to give erroneous impressions as to the intentions of the Government, and he thinks that the Emperor himself has been misled by what he may have heard both of the disposition and sentiments of the Prime Minister, and of the determination of the House of Commons and the country at large to abstain from war in every case except one in which our own honour and interests were directly concerned.

I had a long talk with Clarendon on Sunday, when he told me that the chances of peace were a little better than they had been, inasmuch as there seemed to be a disposition at St. Petersburg to treat, and the Austrian Government was now in earnest bringing to bear all their influence on the Emperor to accept reasonable terms of accommodation. Colloredo brought him the copy of a despatch to St. Petersburg, which he said was excellent, very frank and free in its tone. Austria seems more fully sensible of the danger to herself of any war, which would inevitably let loose the revolutionary element all over the world. Clarendon has drawn up the project of a Convention which embraces all the professed objects of the Emperor, and which the Turks may agree to; he sent it to Paris, whence Drouyn de Lhuys has returned it, with the full concurrence and assent of the French Government, and it went to Petersburg yesterday. The reception of this proposal will determine the question of peace or war.

July 14th.—G— said to me this morning that Palmerston is beginning to stir up matters afresh. I saw him yesterday morning at Holland House in close confabulation with Walewski, with whom I have no doubt he interchanged warlike sentiments, and complained of the lukewarmness of Aberdeen and Clarendon. It is evident that he is at work, and probably, according to his ancient custom, in some underhand way in the press. His flatterers tell him that a majority of the House of Commons would support him and a warlike policy, and though he may wish to believe this, and perhaps does, he will hardly go the length of trying to break up this Cabinet, with the desperate hope of making another Government himself, based on the policy of going to war. Certain newspapers are always asserting that the Cabinet is divided and in dissension, and at the same time accusing it of timidity and weakness, urging strong measures, and asserting that, if we had employed such long ago, Russia would have been frightened, and never have proceeded to such lengths. But the Government are resolved, and wisely, to avoid war as long as they can, and if driven on to it, to be able to show the country that they had exhausted all means of preserving peace.

July 18th.—At last there appears a probability of this Turkish question being amicably settled. On Saturday I was told that despatches were just come from Sir Hamilton Seymour of a more favourable character, and representing the Imperial Government as much more disposed to treat, with a real disposition to bring the negotiations to a successful issue. My informant added that Palmerston predicted that none of the projects and proposals which have emanated from the different Courts would be accepted at Petersburg, which he thought they all would. Yesterday I saw Clarendon, and found matters even in a still more promising state. After the Cabinet Walewski went to him, and communicated to him very important news (of a later date than Seymour's letters) from St. Petersburg, which to my mind is decisive of the question of peace. It appears that both France and Austria have been concocting notes and projects of a pacific tendency to be offered to the Emperor. There have been several of these, some framed at Constantinople, others at Paris. A short time ago the French Government prepared one, which it submitted to ours; Clarendon thought it would not answer, and told them so. They asked whether he had any objection to their sending it off to St. Petersburg and Vienna and making the experiment. He replied, none whatever, and though he did not think it would succeed, he should rejoice if it did, as, provided the affair could be settled, it did not matter how. In the meantime he drew up his own project of a Convention, which went to Paris, and received the cordial approbation of the Emperor; and this document is now on its way to Petersburg. In the meantime the French project was sent there, Castelbajac took it to Nesselrode, who read it very attentively, and said that he liked it very much, but that he could give no positive answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. The same afternoon he saw the French minister again, and told him that he had laid the project before the Emperor Nicholas, and that His Majesty was not only satisfied, but grateful for it, 'non seulement satisfait, mais reconnaissant,' and that the only reason he did not at once close with it was that his ally, the Emperor of Austria, had also submitted a proposal, and he did not like to take another from another Court exclusively without previous communication with him. Clarendon thinks that his proposal will be still more agreeable to the Emperor than the French one, and that he will probably end in taking it; nor will there be any difficulty in this, because our's is so fully concurred in by France as to be in fact her's as much as our's.