His account of his mission does not quite correspond with what I had before heard of it, and is an additional proof of the difficulty of arriving at truth. He told me that he had written to Malmesbury and told him he thought it very expedient to send somebody to Vienna to talk to Buol and the Emperor, and to try and mediate between Austria and France, to which Malmesbury had replied he had better go himself, as nobody else would be so likely to effect the object. The consent of Buol having been previously obtained, he proposed it at Paris, where his services were gladly accepted. He had already spoken very openly to the Emperor, and told him very plain truths as to his position and his conduct, and when he went he told His Majesty without disguise what his intentions were and his wishes, and what he desired that Austria should do. The Emperor was very frank, totally disdained any wish to make war, but said he should like Austria to do certain things, which amounted to full security for Piedmont and renunciation of any unfair and unjustifiable predominance in Italy. He found them at Vienna more angry than alarmed; suspicious, but not unreasonable; their military condition so good and powerful that, believing France really bent on attacking them, there was a very general feeling that it was better war should come at once than have it indefinitely hanging over them, and at first it seemed unlikely that they would return any conciliatory assurances which he might carry back to France. At last, however, he got them to say what he thought was as much as could be expected from them, and what ought to satisfy the French Government. Since he left Paris (now three weeks ago or more) he has not had a line from thence, and he is wholly ignorant of the march of affairs during his absence; but he hopes and expects to find a pacific disposition, and his object is to prevail on the Emperor to put an end to the general state of uncertainty and alarm by announcing to Sardinia that she is in no danger from Austria, and that therefore no assistance from France will be necessary, and she may safely desist from her warlike preparations. This is in fact the only way by which the crisis can be put an end to, and if the Emperor really has been sincere in his professions and means to make his acts correspond with them, he will forthwith put forward some clear and unambiguous declaration, and some definite communication to Piedmont which will leave no room for doubt or suspicion, and restore confidence and tranquillity to Europe again.

March 22nd.—Yesterday the 'Times' announced that a Congress had been agreed upon, which was believed, so the funds rose and there was a general belief that a solution was at hand, but it turns out not to be true. The Emperor wishes for one as a means by which he may back out of his scrape, which Cowley writes is now his object, but it is impossible to believe that Austria will listen to it, and Clarendon thinks that she would do wrong to consent to it, and that we should get into a scrape by being a party to it, as no reliance whatever can be placed on the good faith or honesty of France, who would deceive us and Austria, as she has often done before.

Yesterday the Neapolitan exiles arrived at an hotel in Dover Street in several hack cabs, decorated with laurels, and preceded by a band of music. I did not see the men, but saw the empty cabs; there was no crowd.

Nothing could be more uninteresting than the first evening of the debate on John Russell's Resolutions last night. Lord March told me in the morning that the Government would certainly dissolve as soon as the Resolutions were carried. Every day makes the folly of Derby more apparent in bringing in any Reform Bill at all.

March 24th.—When I think of the Reform Bill of 1832, and compare the state of affairs at that time with that of the present time, nothing can be more extraordinary. Then the interest was intense, the whole country in a fever of excitement, the Press rabid, the clamour for Reform all but universal, party running tremendously high, no doubt or hesitation about individual wishes and opinions, and each camp perfectly united in itself, and full of energy and zeal. In this condition of the public mind and of politics the debates began and continued. This debate has begun and seems likely to continue, how differently! There are neither zeal nor union on one side or the other, everybody is dissatisfied with the state of affairs, and nobody can see a satisfactory issue from the general embarrassment. There have been two nights of debate, and as yet all the speaking has been one way, all on the anti-Reform side. John Russell was flat, and Stanley, who replied to him, actually read his speech, which, though it was much complimented by his own friends, seems to have been far from effective. Horsman made a very good speech the first night, and Bulwer Lytton spoke with great eloquence and effect on Tuesday, far better than anybody thought he could speak, and the Solicitor-General made a magnificent speech, in which he attacked John Russell with great vigour and complete success. The only tolerable speech on the Opposition side was Sidney Herbert's. Nobody has the least idea what course the Government will take of the three open to them, whether they will resign, dissolve, or go on with the second reading. The inference from Stanley's speech was that they will dissolve, but Lytton and Cairns seemed anxious to do away with the impression that speech had made, and one is led to infer from what they said that the Government will most likely proceed to the second reading, which would probably be their wisest and certainly their most popular course. The majority of those who are going to vote for the Resolutions do so unwillingly, and would have preferred going into Committee, or to have fought the battle on the second reading. As it is, if Government do not throw up their cards, the second reading is in my opinion sure to pass, and not improbably the Bill itself with great alterations.

The state of foreign affairs is as uncertain as ever. So incurable is the distrust of the Emperor Napoleon that the greatest doubts prevail whether he means peace or war, and whether even this Congress which he is trying to bring about is not a mere dodge for the purpose of gaining time, and in order to extract out of it a plausible case for a complete breach with Austria.

Gladstone is come back from Italy completely duped by Cavour, who has persuaded him that Piedmont has no ambition or aggressive objects, and that Austria alone is guilty of all the trouble in which the world has been plunged. He told this to Aberdeen, who treated his delusions and his credulity with the utmost scorn and contempt, but he is said to have found John Russell more credulous, and ready to accept Gladstone's convictions.

March 26th.—The debate goes on, to the intense disgust of everybody, though enlivened by a few clever and telling speeches. But everybody is disgusted with the whole affair, from which all see that no good can come, and probably much mischief will ensue. The Government side continues to have the best of the debate, Horsman, who spoke for them, and Lytton and Cairns having been very superior to all the speakers on the other side. On Friday Palmerston spoke, with great vigour, but not much effect. His speech was very jaunty, but very insincere. When he said that he cordially supported the Resolutions of his noble friend, everybody knew that it was not true, that he really disapproved of them and that he only consented to go with Lord John in order to evince his willingness to make up their political difference, and to lend himself to the reunion of all the Whig party; but in his speech he said enough to show that there is not likely to be an entire or lasting agreement between them, and that the two Kings of Brentford will not long continue to smell at the same nosegay. The Opposition have been all along quite confident of victory on the Resolutions, and it has been impossible to make sure of the intentions of the Government in the event of their being beaten, as they have severally held such very different language on the point.

But an incident has occurred which is very likely to extricate the Government from their difficulty, and of which I presume they will avail themselves. Owen Stanley (brother of Stanley of Alderley) the other night blurted out, without previous concert with anybody, a notice of a motion of want of confidence in the event of the second reading not passing. The Opposition are unanimously disgusted at this piece of folly and meddling, while the Government are of course delighted at such a plank of safety being held out to them, and if they use it dexterously, they may completely defeat Lord John and Palmerston, and prolong their own tenure of office for some time at least.

April 1st.—The great debate came to an end last night. The majority was greater than either side expected, and the Government and their friends were sanguine to the last that they should win by a few votes.[1] Although there was a great deal of tedious speaking, it was on the whole a very able and creditable debate, and there were several very powerful speeches, but principally on the side of the minority. Gladstone's was particularly good, and Dizzy's reply, with a very effective philippic against John Russell, was exceedingly clever, and delivered with much dignity and in very good taste. Although the question of Reform was regarded with so much indifference, as the debate proceeded and party spirit and emulation waxed hot, the interest and curiosity became intense. They have become still more intense to-day, and the town is in a state of feverish anxiety to know what is going to happen, and, as usual on such occasions, there are a thousand reports, speculations, and guesses afloat. This morning the prevalent idea was that they would resign, but this evening, and since Derby's brief notice in the House of Lords, it is rather that they will dissolve. Certainly the Queen might very well refuse her consent to a dissolution if proposed to her, and this would of course compel the Government to resign; but nobody knows whether she wishes Derby to stay in, or would prefer to take the chance of forming another Ministry. I have no idea that happen what may she will send for Lord John Russell; but no doubt she knows all that has recently passed between him and Palmerston, and about the formation of another Government, and it is not impossible that she may shrink from being plunged into the difficulties which would attend the attempts to form a Government in which they were to divide the power and authority between them.

April 4th.—The report yesterday was that Derby does not mean to resign or dissolve, or to go on with the present Bill, but perhaps bring in a fresh one. As we shall hear it all this evening, it is useless to speculate on the subject. The Opposition are evidently puzzled what to do. I went to Kent House, where Lewis said the Government were much mistaken if they imagined they should be left alone; he did not know what would be done, but certainly they must look to be attacked in some shape or other. Granville in the evening took the opposite line, and said the best party game would be to let them alone. Nothing, however, will ever induce John Russell to keep quiet.

Clarendon came in, and we talked of foreign affairs. He thinks war inevitable, and that the French are only gaining time to complete their preparations. I said I thought Cowley had been duped by the Emperor, but he thought not. Cowley had all along seen all the objections to the proposed Congress and suspected the arri�re pens�e of it, but said it was impossible when proposed to object to it, as the Emperor would put forward such a refusal as a pretext, and say that it would have prevented war. Two years ago he had a reliance upon the Emperor which he had no longer; that he was completely changed now from what he was, and it was difficult to know what he really meant, and when he was sincere or the reverse. Clarendon told us he had lately seen Marliani, an old acquaintance of his, a Spanish Liberal and friend of Cavour's. Marliani said that the Italian question was ill understood in England, and he had come over for the express purpose of seeing Clarendon and talking it over with him, and putting before him a paper he had written upon it. The conversation was curious. Clarendon told him he was quite mistaken if he thought the Government or any other Government could take any part at variance with the existing treaties, or that the country would allow them to do so, even if inclined. He then asked him what his friend Cavour meant to do in the dilemma in which he had got himself and his country, and expressed very strong opinions on his conduct. Marliani replied that it was not quite just to censure Cavour with such severity, and without considering his position, that during his whole life his most ardent desire and fixed idea was that of purging Italy of the Austrians and aggrandising his own country, and now when he saw before him the probable realisation of his fond hopes, that he was backed up and encouraged by the master of 300,000 men in the game he was playing, and taught to rely upon that aid, could it be wondered at that he should yield to the seduction? Clarendon asked what would happen if the Emperor proved faithless to him, as he had done to others, and in what position Cavour would find himself. Marliani replied that he had no hesitation in telling him what he thought need not be a secret, at least to him, as he was sure Cavour would tell Clarendon himself if he saw him, and that Cavour had fully made up his mind what to do. If the Emperor ended by throwing over the Italian cause and refused to go to war, Cavour would resign, the King would abdicate, and the whole correspondence with all the Emperor's letters (of which they had an immense number) would be published and circulated over all Europe to show the baseness and perfidy of the man in whom they had trusted, and to force him to hide his head from the indignation and contempt of the world. Everything indicates that, whether from fear of this vindictive explosion or because he thinks it his policy, he is hastening his preparations, has renewed his engagements to Cavour, and that he means to go to war as soon as he can.

CHAPTER XVIII.

The Government determine to dissolve the Parliament—Apathy of the Country—Hopes and Fears as to the War—The Congress a Trick—Disraeli on the approaching Elections—War declared—Mr. Greville resigns the Clerkship of the Council—Result of the Elections—Mistakes of the Austrian Government—Policy of the Opposition—Reconciliation of Lord Palmerston and Lord John Russell—The Reconciliation doubtful—Meeting of the Liberal Party—Resolution of the Meeting—Debate on the Resolution of Want of Confidence—Defeat of Ministers—Lord Derby resigns—Lord Granville sent for by the Queen—Lord Granville does not form a Government—Lord Palmerston sent for—Lord Palmerston's Second Administration—The Queen confers the Garter on Lord Derby—Successful Progress of the French in Italy—Causes of Lord Granville's Failure—Lord John claims the Foreign Office—Lord Clarendon declines to take Office—Lord Clarendon's Interview with the Queen—Mr. Cobden declines to take Office—The Armistice of Villafranca—Peace concluded—The Terms of Peace—Position of the Pope—Disappointment of Italy—Conference of the Emperors—Alleged Sensitiveness of the Emperor Napoleon—Details of the War—A Visit to Ireland—Irish National Education—Dublin—Howth Castle—Waterford—Killarney—Return from Ireland—Numerous Cabinets—A Dispute with China—Lord Palmerston and Lord John Russell—Lord Clarendon at Osborne—Spain and Morocco—The Duc d'Aumale—Perplexity of the Emperor Napoleon—The Emperor Napoleon and the 'Times.'

April 7th, 1859.—The determination of the Government, announced in both Houses on Monday evening, took the world by surprise. Nobody thought there would be a dissolution. Derby's speech was very bad, much below his usual level. The attack on John Russell which formed a chief part of it was merely a r�chauff� of that of Disraeli, but very inferior to it in every respect. Disraeli in the other House spoke much better, and with more taste and temper. The Opposition leaders are evidently much taken aback; the Derbyites assert that they have reason to expect a gain of forty votes, but nobody believes it. Many think a much more Radical and an angry Parliament will be returned, but there is no excitement, and it seems to me more probable that those are right who think the relative proportions will not be materially altered. The Whig chiefs are very angry with John Russell for committing himself as he did on Monday night by his speech and announcement of his own plan of Reform. Great attempts were made to dissuade him from doing this, but he would not listen to reason. Palmerston made a speech clearly indicative of disagreement with Lord John, though with a semblance of union. The Resolutions on one side and the Dissolution on the other have both been great faults, of which the mischievous consequences may be very serious, but which cannot be made manifest till we see the result of the election.

April 15th.—I have been reading over to George Lewis my account of what took place about the Reform Bill of 1832, to assist him in reviewing that period of history, and in so doing it is impossible not to be struck with the contrast between the public excitement which prevailed then and the apathy and absence of interest which we witness now. At every general election there is a great deal of bustle, activity, party zeal, and contention, but there are not more of these now than on ordinary occasions, if anything less. Both parties are confident that they shall gain, and the Derbyites are making great efforts, and have collected a very large sum of money. Derby has given 20,000l. to the fund, but candidates are slack in coming forward with the prospect of the new Parliament not lasting many months. The question of peace or war is still in abeyance, but inclines rather towards war; the public securities oscillate like a barometer, and people are puzzled and unable to form any opinion.

April 20th.—The long promised statements were made in both Houses on Monday night, but they told us nothing that was not already known, and merely expressed hopes that war might still be averted. Disraeli in the Commons was more sanguine than Malmesbury and Derby in the Lords. Clarendon and Derby both made excellent speeches, the former particularly; all he said was sound and true. The most striking thing in both Houses was the extreme caution and reserve of the speakers on both sides, and particularly their reticence and forbearance about France. Not one word of blame of the Emperor of the French; no more about him, his sayings and doings, than about the Emperor of Russia, or than if he had had nothing whatever to do with the present state of things. This was probably politic, but it was lamentable and disgraceful that we should be obliged, or think ourselves obliged, to abstain from speaking the truth, for fear of offending this rascally adventurer, who by the egregious folly and cowardice of the French nation has been invested with such an awful power of mischief, and whom neither fear nor shame deters from pursuing his own wicked ends at the expense of any amount of misery and desolation which he may inflict upon mankind. One cannot help contrasting the extreme delicacy and forbearance exhibited towards him with the violence and abuse which were directed against the Emperor Nicholas in 1854.

I met Disraeli yesterday afternoon, when he told me they had got such satisfactory news from the Continent that he considered the affair as virtually settled and the danger at an end. God grant it may be so, but I am far from being satisfied that the danger is over. On the eve of great resolutions, and as the moment of taking an irrevocable step draws near, the actors in great events have generally some misgivings, and pause upon the brink, and so probably will these quasi-belligerents do now; but I believe the concessions which France expresses herself willing to make to our entreaties to be a part of her game. Clarendon or Derby said that if Cowley had been allowed to work out his purpose of mediation, probably all would have been settled, and that the proposition of Russia for a Congress had been mischievous, and only involved the question in fresh doubt and delay. But it appears evident that this was a French trick, and that Russia proposed the Congress at the instigation of France, who sought it for the purpose of delay, and most likely in order to extract from it a plausible cause of quarrel. Derby in his speech attributed a great deal to the menacing and disturbing speech of the King of Sardinia in opening his Chambers, but nobody said a word of Napoleon's sortie to the Austrian Minister on the 1st January, nor was any allusion made to various important facts which were well known to many people in both Houses. No reproaches were cast upon Sardinia, but a good many upon Austria; no comment made upon the flagrant breach by Sardinia of the treaties existing between her and Austria, and of the forbearance of the latter in not making that breach a casus belli, as she might well have done.

I went to a Council on Monday for the prorogation, when I had some conversation with Disraeli, and asked him what his real belief was as to their prospects in the election. He said there was so much luck in these matters that it was difficult to speak positively, but that he had endeavoured to ascertain the true probabilities of the result, and his conclusion was that if they had luck they should gain sixty votes; and what, I asked, if there was no luck on one side or the other? Then, he said, they should gain forty. I told him the Opposition calculators did not believe the Government would gain at all, or at most not above eight or ten, if so many, and asked if he was confident they should gain from twenty to thirty anyhow. He said from the day of their taking office they had looked forward to a dissolution, that their organisation was excellent, they had plenty of candidates and of money, and he was quite confident they should gain that number and more; he added that there was in no part of the country the slightest desire for Reform, and he had altered the address he had first intended to put forth, in consequence of finding what the prevailing sentiment was on that question. I suppose they hold this language to justify their dissolution, for it is difficult to believe they can really expect such results, or that their opponents, who tell such a different story, can be so completely mistaken.

April 24th, Newmarket.—Disraeli's information on Tuesday last, when I met him at Lady Jersey's, might well have warranted me in believing that no war would take place, but I have never been able to persuade myself that this calamity would be averted, and it appears that my apprehensions were well founded, for now the die seems to be really cast, and at the moment when I am writing it is probably actually declared and begun. Though Austria is perfectly justified in declining to wait any longer while France is maturing her preparations, and cannot justly be blamed for bringing the affair to a crisis, she is certain to be exposed to every sort of obloquy and misrepresentations even in this country, and of course much more in France.

April 27th.—On Monday we heard that the Austrians had sent their ultimatum to Sardinia, and there was a complete panic in the City. Yesterday we were informed that she had given fourteen days' grace to Sardinia, and everything was up again. But this morning we were undeceived, and found this latter report had no foundation. Meanwhile the clamour against Austria has been senseless and disgraceful; nothing could be more unworthy than Derby's allusion to her in his speech at the Mansion House dinner on Monday. It was a claptrap, and meant to obtain popularity and assist the Ministerial interest at the election. Nothing has ever disgusted me more than to see the readiness with which everybody finds fault with Austria, and the care with which they avoid any notice of France, not, however, that this can or will last. What sort of relations we shall continue to have with France I cannot imagine. We have been treated in a manner which puts an end to the possibility of any amicable feelings between the two countries. We can never trust the Emperor again, and must take measures for our own security as best we may; but unhappily the Indian war has so materially diminished our power and absorbed our resources, and France has so enormously gained upon us in point of naval strength, that we are not in a condition to hold the language and play the part that befit the dignity and the honour of the country. We can revile Austria with impunity, for we know that we are in no danger of an attack from her, but, on the contrary, that she has so much need of our good will that she will endure our taunts and reproaches, and not quarrel with us even in words. It was a prophetic saying of Mackintosh forty years ago at Roehampton that it remained to be proved whether the acquisition of our Indian Empire was in reality a gain to us, and we must hope that the remark will not be illustrated in our days by seeing England herself placed in danger by her exertions to retain or reconquer India, whose value is so problematical and of which nothing is certain but the immense labour and cost of her retention.

May 14th.—Another severe fit of the gout, principally in the right hand, has prevented my writing a line for the last fortnight, during which war has broken out, and the general election has been begun and ended, and, what is most important to myself, I have resigned my office. Hitherto the war and the election have equally disappointed the expectations they gave rise to. The Austrians committed a blunder in plunging into the war, and have not taken the only advantage such a measure seemed to promise, viz. that of overpowering the Sardinians before the French could join them, and now nobody can make out what their tactics are, or when and where the contest will begin in earnest. Meanwhile we are taking an imposing attitude of armed and prepared neutrality. Disraeli's anticipated sixty votes have dwindled down to a gain of twenty, but Malmesbury told Cowley that they should have force sufficient to maintain their ground, which I see their opponents do not believe.

May 17th.—The elections are nearly if not quite over, and, as well as can be collected from the conflicting calculations of the rival parties, they present a gain of nearly thirty for the Government. With this they evidently hope and their opponents fear they will be able to go on at least to the end of the session, and I incline to think so likewise. Their Government is miserably weak and incapable, their numbers respectable, but their staff deplorable. It is expected they will propose to Lord Elgin to take Lytton's place. The general election has been eminently satisfactory in this, that it has elicited the completely Conservative spirit of the country. Palmerston, who predicted that the consequence would be a large increase of Radical strength, has been altogether mistaken. It may be added (whether this is a good or an evil) that it has also manifested the indifference of the country to all parties and to all political ties and connexions. In the last general election the cry was all for Palmerston, in this there has been no cry for anybody, neither for Palmerston nor Derby, and less than all for John Russell or Bright. And yet John Russell is flattering himself he shall have an opportunity of forming a Government, and talks of his regret at being obliged to leave out so many of his friends. It is remarkable that the Catholics have supported the Government, and that they have done so under orders from Rome. Archbishop Cullen is there, and has signified to the priests the pleasure of the Pope that the Derby Government should be supported. Clarendon told me this yesterday, and that the reason is because they think this Government more favourably inclined to Austria than any other, especially than either Palmerston or John Russell would be. The Papal Government have never forgiven the Whigs for the Ecclesiastical Titles Bill, and this accounts for the otherwise strange support given by the Catholics to those who have always been their bitterest enemies.

The war still languishes, and nobody can make out what the Austrian plans are. A great sensation has been made by the retirement of Buol and the appointment of Rechberg. The first report was that it was a sacrifice made to appease the resentment of Russia, but Clarendon told me yesterday he did not believe this, but that it was rather to satisfy some of the German Powers whom Buol had deeply offended. Nothing could have exceeded the stupid blundering and misconduct of the Austrian Government during the last few critical weeks, and their want of tact towards Prussia and the German Powers. The Archduke Albrecht was sent to Germany for the purpose of stirring up the German Powers, and professedly to procure such a demonstration as should be the means of preventing war, and then, while the Archduke was still at Berlin, they blurted out their ultimatum (which was a declaration of war) without letting Prussia know what they were about. The Archduke was obliged to declare his own ignorance of the intentions of his Government, and Prussia consequently to announce her disapprobation of the measure and to signify the same to France, which was just what suited the Emperor Louis Napoleon. I hear also that his departure from Paris was accelerated by the necessity of repairing as speedily as possible to the seat of war, in order to quiet the dissensions and quarrels which were already raging between the French generals. Not a very promising beginning of the campaign. This used to be the case formerly in the great Napoleon's time wherever he was not present. His presence silenced these quarrels, but it remains to be seen whether this man will have equal authority over unruly subordinates, who cannot possibly regard him with the same deference with which the old marshals looked up to their mighty master.

May 24th.—The elections are all over, and the Opposition leaders are already busy in devising the means of attacking the Government. On Friday Palmerston went to Pembroke Lodge, and had a long conference with John Russell. On Sunday there was a gathering there, attended by Granville, George Lewis, Charles Wood, and probably others. The question immediately to be decided is whether an Amendment shall or not be moved to the Address. A very nice point of political strategy. The Whig leaders are impatient to drive the Government to resignation, without, as I believe, knowing how they are to form a Government likely to be durable and strong. As matters stand, the Government appear to be too strong to be driven out, and not strong enough to count upon staying in. A greater fix can hardly be seen.

May 26th.—Palmerston and John Russell have now made up all their differences, and have come to a complete understanding and agreement on all points, so that the schism may be considered at an end. Upon Reform, upon foreign policy, upon the mode of opposition, they are fully agreed, and even upon their respective personal pretensions. Both are resolved not to quit the House of Commons, and Lord John himself says that the question of the Primacy must be determined by the Queen herself, and that whomever she may send for and charge with the formation of a Government must necessarily be Premier. There is not much doubt that this will be Palmerston, but what post Lord John would require for himself I have not heard. It may possibly be the Foreign Office, which Palmerston could hardly refuse to him, particularly as they are agreed on foreign policy, and Clarendon is not inclined to share their opinion. This reconciliation will be very favourable to Granville's pretensions, and secure to him the lead of the House of Lords, and not improbably, at some not very distant day, lead to his being Prime Minister. In this age of political Methuselahs it is an enormous advantage to be little more than forty years old. This state of affairs I heard at Brooks's from the Duke of Bedford. It was Lord John who took the initiative in their approaches to each other. He wrote to Palmerston, on which Palmerston repaired to Pembroke Lodge, where they had a long conversation, with the result aforesaid. Soon afterwards I met Disraeli in the street. He did not appear to me to be in very high spirits, and talked of the position and chances of his Government without any expressions of confidence, though without despondence. He said he hoped that they would move an Amendment to the Address, as it was better to fight it out at once and bring the question of strength to a crisis.

May 29th.—It seems not unlikely that the Government may be after all relieved from the immediate danger of an Amendment by the divisions amongst the Opposition, or rather between the rival leaders. After all I was told of the meeting between Palmerston and Lord John, and the agreement they had come to on all the important points, I was astonished at hearing on Friday evening that everything was again thrown into uncertainty because Lord John would not say what he intended to do. On the important question of who should be Premier he would make no frank statement. He had, indeed, before said that the Queen must decide it, and the man she sent for would naturally be at the head of the Government; but he refused to say whether, supposing Palmerston to be sent for, he would take office with and under him, or even whether he would sit in the House of Commons on or behind the Treasury Bench—in short he would give no clear and positive assurance of his intentions. This is naturally very disgusting to the Whigs, and throws everything into doubt and confusion. The Duke of Bedford is to go down to him and tell him the plain truth, which no one else would venture to do, pointing out to him the effect of his conduct on the sentiments of the Liberal party and on his own position, with regard to which his conduct is indefensible and suicidal. It remains to be seen whether any effect will be produced on his mind, but in any case nothing can look more hopeless than it does, or promise worse for the future. Even though Lord John should consent to act under Palmerston (and nobody expects that it is Lord John for whom the Queen would send), there seems little hope of any cordial or lasting union between them, or of his being satisfied with any position in which he might consent to place himself, for his mind is evidently in a sour and jaundiced state. The majority of the Whig and Liberal party who are come up full of resentment from the elections are certainly desirous of attacking the Government, but there is a considerable number of them who are averse to joining in any vote of want of confidence, or any other move which may turn the Government out without first being assured that another Government can be formed, and that the union is sufficiently complete to promise that such new Government would be strong enough to maintain itself when formed.

June 6th.—As I was at Epsom every day this week, I have heard nothing of what has been going on, except the fact that there is to be a great meeting of the Liberals at Willis's Rooms this afternoon, called by a list of people which includes Palmerston and Lord John and Milner Gibson, whose signature betokens the assent of the Radicals to the object of it, which I conclude to be an agreement as to the attack to be made on the Government to-morrow, and certain explanations as to the intentions and sentiments of the Whig leaders. I see that there are many dissentients from the course that is going to be adopted, many who think this attempt to oust the Government at once neither patriotic nor politic. Without any very decided opinion, or the means of forming one, I am rather inclined to think that it would be better to leave them alone, and to trust to their furnishing good cause for turning them out, as they probably will do. The Government does not appear to be obnoxious to any serious reproach and objection, except about their mismanagement of foreign affairs. But it is very questionable whether another Government might not give us a policy equally or still more mischievous.

June 7th.—The meeting of the Opposition yesterday at Willis's Rooms went off as well as they could expect or desire. The two leaders gave the required assurances that each would serve under the other, in the event of either being sent for. There was a general concurrence in the plan of attacking the Government at once, in which even Bright and Ellice joined, the former disclaiming any desire for office in his own person, but claiming it for his friends. The result promised is that with very few exceptions all the opponents or quasi-opponents of the Government will unite in supporting the vote of want of confidence, and they are very confident of success. On the other hand, the Derbyites do not despair of having a majority, and they comfort themselves with the certainty that the division must be so close, that the successful Whigs will be able to form no Government which will have a certain working majority, and, not impossibly, that the majority itself may be turned into a minority by the events of the re-elections. This is not very probable, and it is rather more likely that if Palmerston forms a Government, he will have the support of a good many of those who will vote with the Government, as long as they remain in. There were, however, some rather ominous manifestations made at this meeting. It seemed to be agreed that the new Government should embrace not only Whigs and Peelites, but 'advanced Liberals,' i.e. the followers of Bright, and this, besides introducing the seeds of disunion, will probably frighten away the Liberal Conservatives, who would like to support Palmerston, inasmuch as a Government so formed would afford little security for the maintenance of Conservative measures. Then Palmerston in no ambiguous terms announced his pro-Gallican sympathies, and the neutrality he declared for in every possible case which he could contemplate, together with his desire for a cordial union with France, can mean nothing but that under his rule England should look quietly on while France crushes Austria, and accomplishes all her ambitious and revolutionary objects. That this policy will be hateful to many who will be his colleagues cannot be doubted, but what is doubtful is whether those who will object to it will have virtue and firmness enough to decline office rather than be parties to such a policy.

June 9th.—There is great excitement about this debate and the probable division, and equal confidence on both sides of a majority. The Opposition is the favourite, but their friends will not lay any odds. Everybody says it must be very close, and on either side the majority will not exceed ten. On the first night Disraeli made a capital speech, and nobody else on their side would speak at all. This was a sort of manœuvre and attempt to bring about a division that night, for they found out that seventeen of the Opposition had not taken their seats, which would have secured a majority to the Government. The Whigs therefore refused to divide, and put up one man after another to keep the debate open, and eventually obtained an adjournment. Palmerston's speech was in accordance with his declaration at Willis's, and with his ancient practice; it was violently pro-French and anti-Austrian, and it was full of gross falsehoods and misrepresentations, which he well knew to be such. In his seventy-fifth year, and playing the last act of his political life, he is just what he always was.

June 12th.—After a not very remarkable debate, the division yesterday morning gave a majority of thirteen to the Opposition, which was more than either side expected.[1] Derby resigned at eleven o'clock, and the Queen immediately after marked her sense of his conduct by sending him an extra Garter in an autograph letter. Much to his own surprise she sent for Granville (and for nobody else) and charged him with the formation of a Government. What passed between Her Majesty and him I know not, but he accepted the commission and has been busy about it ever since. How he is to deal with Palmerston and Lord John, and to make such a project palatable to them I cannot imagine. What the Queen has done is a very significant notice to them of her great reluctance to have either of them at the head of affairs, and it cannot but be very mortifying to them to be invited to accept office under a man they have raised from the ranks, and who is young enough to be son to either, and almost to be grandson of the elder of the two. Nor will the mortification be less, after they have both so publicly avowed their expectations that one or other of them must be sent for, and their having, in what they consider a spirit of self-sacrifice, consented to serve under each other, but without ever saying or dreaming that it could be necessary to say they would take office under any third party. Nobody, indeed, has ever thought of the possibility of any but one of them being called upon by Her Majesty, and the only question has been which it would be.

June 13th.—Lord Granville told me yesterday evening what had passed, and that his mission was at an end, and Palmerston engaged in forming a Government. The account of it all appears in the 'Times' this morning quite correctly. Granville was rather disappointed, but took it gaily enough, and I think he must have been aware from the first of the extreme difficulty of his forming a Government which was to include these two old rival statesmen. Palmerston had the wisdom to accede at once to Granville's proposal, probably foreseeing that nothing would come of Granville's attempt, and that he would have all the credit of his complaisance and obtain the prize after all. The transaction has been a very advantageous one for Granville, and will inevitably lead sooner or later to his gaining the eminence which he has only just missed now, which would have been full of difficulties and future embarrassments at the present time, but will be comparatively easy hereafter. Lord John's conduct will not serve to ingratiate him with the Queen, nor increase his popularity with the country.[1]

June 26th.—All the time that the formation of the new Government was going on I was at a cottage near Windsor for the Ascot races, and consequently I heard nothing of the secret proceedings connected with the selection of those who come in, and the exclusion of those who belonged to Palmerston's last Government, nor have I as yet heard what passed on the subject.[1] The most remarkable of the exclusions is Clarendon's, who I was sure, when the Foreign Office was seized by John Russell, would take nothing else; and of the admissions, Gladstone's, who has never shown any good will towards Palmerston, and voted with Derby in the last division. This Government in its composition is curiously, and may prove fatally, like that which Aberdeen formed in 1852, of a very Peelite complexion, and only with a larger proportion of Radicals, though not enough, it is said, to satisfy their organs, and Bright is displeased that he has not been more consulted, and probably at office not having been more pressed upon him. It is still very doubtful whether Cobden will accept the place offered to him.