In the introduction to his work, “Untersuchungen über die Bewegung der Criminalität in ihrem Zusammenhang mit dem wirtschaftlichen Verhältnissen”, Dr. Müller describes the result of his researches as follows: “In the course of our discussion it will appear that with time the state of industry, the greater or less chance to get work, the activity or depression of the general economic life, have gradually become of far more significance for the increase or decrease of crime, than a rise or fall in the price of provisions, and that at present these factors have reduced the economic meaning of the price of provisions to a minimum.”46

The period examined (1854–1895) is divided into two parts, because the criminal statistics of the empire, which are to be had from 1882 on, give the number of crimes and criminals, while the Prussian statistics give the number of new cases brought before the examining magistrate.

The figures for these years are as follows:

Now, the causes that make crime increase when there is an economic depression are, according to the author, the following: “The instinct of self-preservation, which in its harmonious development is the motive for the lawful and moral struggle of men for existence, and in more restricted form is the principal ground for industrial activity, in its degeneration … demands a certain, often high, percentage of victims, who fall into crime, especially theft, fraud, embezzlement, and other offenses against property. And experience shows that the [76]greater the care to maintain existence, or often simply to procure daily bread, the greater is the number of offenses against property. When need appears, at the same time comes the instinct impelling a man to seize the property of another, better situated than himself. Infractions of property are in part to be ascribed to other motives. There is nothing to show, however, that these motives (greed and covetousness, for example) are stronger in one year and weaker in another throughout a whole people. We must rather ascribe to them a certain uniformity in their influence upon criminal activity. The determining factor in the increase and decrease of crimes remains the general well-being of a people, in earlier times the price of the necessities of life, at the present the opportunity for employment.”47

Let us study in the first place crimes and misdemeanors against property:

I. Offenses, against Property.

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The following table gives the prices of certain important foods (per 50 Kilogr.):

A comparison of these figures with those of crime will show that the crimes against property increase in the years of high prices up to 1855. In 1857 prices fell and crime decreased.

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In the figures for foreign countries we see this relation much less clearly. Dr. Weisz has indeed succeeded in establishing a similar relation in France, but in Belgium it is much slighter. In England it is not possible to show that there is any parallelism between the curves of criminality and of the price of grain. In the years 1831–1840 and 1841–1850 the curve of crime even goes down, while provisions were then very dear. There must therefore be some other cause, and this is probably that England had a great industrial development long before any other country.

After an extremely rapid development up to 1847, manufacturing had to pass through a formidable crisis. While the average annual number of persons convicted in England and Wales was 20,455, and this figure fell to 18,100 and 17,400 in the prosperous years, 1845–1846, it rose during the years of crisis, 1847–1848, to 21,500 and 22,900, falling again to 21,000 in 1849, when business had resumed its normal course.

In the years following, industry received an enormous impetus, in consequence of the discovery of gold in California, the repeal of the Corn Laws, and many other causes. In 1857 came the panic, which affected all industrial countries, especially England. In 1856–1860 there was an annual average of 13,565 convictions; in 1857 it was 15,307, an increase of 12%. That the consequences of this crisis are not to be observed in the figures for crime in Prussia, is to be attributed to the fact that in that country manufacturing was little developed. [79]

After the very dear years 1852–1856 the price of grain remained fairly constant in Prussia. It was only in 1860–1862 that it rose a little and caused an increase in the cases of fraud and theft. 1867–1868 were years which were marked by an extraordinarily high price for grain, which had some influence upon crime, without equalling that of such years as 1852–1856.

Crime decreased in the years of war, 1866 and 1870–1871, due as Dr. Müller thinks, to two facts; first, that a great part of the population capable of committing crimes were then out of the country; and second, that the feeling of solidarity is stronger in time of war.

Notwithstanding the rise in the price of grain in 1871–1874, crime decreased greatly after the war of 1870. A modification of the penal law could not be the cause of it; its origin was deeper. Since 1871 Germany has seen its industries develop prodigiously. The period of prosperity was of short duration, for in the summer of 1873 came the crisis, which lasted till 1878. Now it is during these years that the crimes against property were much increased.

When we study this period in other countries, in Austria and England, for example, we see a great industrial development, accompanied by a decrease in crime. The average number of criminals in Austria for the years 1860–1870 was 32,800, and 26,900 for the years 1871–1875. In England the figures for the same period were 14,100 and 11,200 respectively. France alone was an exception, for in this country manufacturing did not begin to develop immediately after the war.48 But in Austria and England the effects of the crisis upon crime were felt just as in Prussia. In Austria, for example, criminality increased 10%. From 1878 on, business improved in Prussia and in other countries also, and little by little the number of crimes against property decreased (between 1885 and 1890 7% in France, 9% in Austria, and 20% in England).

In 1889 there was another great disturbance in the economic field, which was prolonged till 1892. During these years there was a new increase of crime; in Austria, for example, the average number of convictions was 29,483 in 1890–1894, as against 28,834 for the five years preceding. In England we see the same phenomenon, and in Prussia as well.

Dr. Müller calls attention to the marked fall in the price of grain in 1892, and sees in it a proof that prices have no longer any great [80]influence. Since 1892 there has been a new period of prosperity, and at the same time a constant diminution of crimes against property.

Dr. Müller reminds us that preceding moralistic statisticians have brought out the fact that crimes against persons increase when the price of grain falls, and vice versa, as is distinctly seen in the tables for the years 1854–1860. But there is a change during the ten years following. In 1867–1868 the price of grain was high, but crimes against persons and the public order rose also. Crimes against persons decreased in the years of war, 1866 and 1870, just as crimes against property did. Since 1871 crimes against persons have in general diminished, principally because of favorable economic conditions. (The diminution of crimes against morals is chiefly due to a modification of the law, which prescribed that a case could not be [81]prosecuted except upon complaint. The increase after 1876 was caused by a revocation of this requirement.) The crimes in question increased anew considerably after the crisis of 1874. Here is an important exception, then, to the rule that the earlier statisticians laid down, namely that crimes against persons decrease when economic conditions grow worse. [80]

II. Crimes against Persons.

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“The great economic crisis beginning in 1873 was accompanied by the characteristic phenomenon that dissatisfaction with the existing economic, social, and political conditions affected wider circles than heretofore, that this embittered people’s minds, and brought about sharp oppositions and struggles of the industrial classes against each other, especially the struggle of labor against capital. The need of an economic reform was more and more felt, which is to be attained, in the opinion of the powerful, by force, and in that of the thoughtful, by social legislation. All public life since the seventies has been dominated by this idea.”49

Here also economic conditions are causes of crime, and show themselves principally in resistance to officials, etc. The tables show also an increase in the cases of perjury, bodily injuries, and other crimes that are the consequences of grossness. The increase is due, according to Dr. Müller, to bad economic conditions. For as a consequence of these the number of civil cases rose from 60,000 (the average for [83]1871–1873) to 120,000 and 135,000 (1876–1877) and it is by these cases that perjury becomes possible. It is necessary to attribute to the same causes the great increase in the number of cases of crimes against personal liberty (also, since 1876, to the abolition of the requirement of a complaint for prosecution). [82]

III. Crimes against the Public Order.

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“The chief reasons why this crime (against personal liberty), like most crimes against persons, has constantly increased up to the present, in addition to the growing discontent with the present economic situation, are two; first, the effect of the spread of great manufactories in breaking up the family life, with concomitant lack of moral and religious education, and the too early necessity for self-supporting labor …; and second, the present inordinate desire for pleasure, whose results are seen not least in the harmful effects of the immoderate consumption of alcohol; for that this is a prolific source of the multiplication of crime can hardly be doubted.”50

Dr. Müller’s final conclusion is as follows: “We may regard it as an established truth that, in the last analysis, the cause for the increase and decrease of crime as a whole is to be found in the presence or absence of a chance for employment and gain, in the condition of individual lines of industry, and in the greater or less degree in which the population as a whole in consequence of this, are in a position to consume.”51

—Recently it has been proved that the conclusion of Dr. Müller with regard to the slight influence of the price of grain upon criminality was not entirely correct. Notwithstanding the growing influence of the industrial situation upon criminality, the price of grain has retained a certain influence.52— [84]