Studying the commerce of Brazil with the rest of the world, following the remarkable variations in amount of export of certain articles, and the no less remarkable fluctuation in price of others, one comes at last to the conclusion that Brazilian trade has never had a normal year. Almost every twelve months has seen changes taking place which are not the result, in most cases, of the growth, to be expected, along definite lines; influences unforeseen have more than once knocked the bottom out of certain prosperous businesses, production has been affected by remote causes, or stimulated by others as little to be normally reckoned upon. The history of Brazilian exterior commerce, which is largely the history of her exports since purchases depend upon income, shows some of the most sensational transferences of prosperity from one region and industry to another, oddest appearances and disappearances of industries, falls and rises of prices, in commercial records.

To realize something of this it is only necessary to think of the dominance of the northern promontory, in colonial days, when sugar was the great Brazilian staple together with dyewood, and of the total disappearance of the latter—until the last year—from consideration; of the once-feverish gold industry, which shipped over a thousand tons of the refined metal in its hey-day, employing an army of people, and which has now vanished, with the exception of the operations of two British-owned companies; of the obliteration of Brazil’s fame as a diamond producer after the discovery of the blue-clay deposits of Kimberley; of the rise of the once-neglected and uncolonized south to the position of “leader” section of the country with its enormous coffee production, built up during the last forty years; of the phenomena of the rubber export of the extreme north, as well as the new developments in Brazilian business appearing on the horizon, great in potentiality, during the war period, and which may bring Brazil into the front rank of countries exporting chilled beef and producing manganese ore. Few countries on the active list have seen such revolutions in industry; they have been largely due to the variety of Brazilian regions, and they will in all probability be repeated while Brazil opens her great expanses of virgin prairies, forests, and mineral-saturated hills.

The following figures show that between 1915 and 1920, Brazil’s exterior commerce was nearly equal in value to that of the previous ten years:

These figures show one or two points clearly—first, the vitality of Brazil, for as one industry has waned another has waxed, exportation values steadily showing increases in spite of the caprices of fortune; it is also plain that for the last fifty years Brazil has exported more than she has imported. In war years, this excess of exports was very much more accentuated, but, although this balance is useful in helping to steady exchange, to pay debts abroad, and to put money into shippers’ and producers’ pockets, it has the effect, when imports are greatly curtailed, of starving the Federal Government, whose revenues are mainly dependent upon import taxes.

The famous “nine principal articles” of Brazilian export were coffee, cotton, sugar, rubber, cacao, hides (of cattle), skins (of goats and sheep), tobacco, and matte (“Paraguay tea”) up to 1916. Other items which displayed marked rises up to 1918 were lard, rice, Brazil nuts, carnauba wax, manganese ore, precious and semi-precious stones, and chilled or frozen beef. Prosperity over all Brazil depends much more upon volume and variety of goods exported than upon prices, for while soaring values put large profits into the hands of the few, great volumes of products mean employment for the field labourer or collector, for transportation companies, and a host of intermediaries. In addition to increased prices, the actual volume of Brazilian exports was larger in the five years 1916–1920, rising from seven million tons in 1911–1915 to nearly ten million tons. This prosperity was due to war calls, several new items appearing on the 1916–20 lists on page 319.

The preponderance today of São Paulo as a producer state is shown by her shipment values—465,212 contos out of the total exports, or about forty-six per cent of Brazilian sales. Next in values come the sales of Minas Geraes, worth 221,000 contos, and Rio de Janeiro state, with about 176,000 contos; Bahia is fourth, with exports worth over 102,000 contos; Pará and Amazonas follow with about 70,000 and 64,000 contos respectively; Paraná, 33,565 contos; Espirito Santo, nearly 30,000; and Pernambuco, with 22,600 contos, are next, followed by Ceará, shipping nearly 19,000 contos’ worth of goods, to Rio Grande do Sul, with sales worth almost 16,000 contos; the only other state shipping over 10,000 contos’ worth of goods is Maranhão.

The United States has been for many years the greatest single purchaser of Brazilian materials, generally taking rather more than one-third of all exports, Europe taking nearly all the rest, with South America also buying an appreciable share, amounting to about five per cent of the total. The coffee trade is that in which the United States is most largely concerned: for the last six years Brazilian exports of coffee have averaged over fourteen million bags, and of this the United States has been taking about one-third, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands accounting for another third, France taking from one to two million bags, and the rest of Europe absorbing the remainder. The United States, purchaser of a billion dollars of tropical and sub-tropical products in 1915–16, is an eager taker of Brazilian hides and skins, an export markedly stimulated since the European War began, important shipments coming from Rio Grande do Sul among other cattle states; she has, during the last two years, apparently been able to receive larger quantities of all Brazilian products, and perhaps the most salutary trend, for both the United States and Brazil, has been in the great quantities of raw materials taken by the northern country. These materials are the breath of life to the manufactures, and nothing is better for Brazil than increased volumes of such exports.

During 1915 the United States bought, reckoning in dollars, nearly $107,000,000 of Brazil’s total exports of over $255,000,000, while Great Britain took $31,000,000, France $29,000,000, Sweden $23,000,000 (chiefly coffee, and, in view of the disappearance of direct sales to Germany, in all probability transferred to the Central Powers), and the Netherlands $16,000,000; sales to the Argentine were nearly $13,000,000, while Uruguay took about four and a half million dollars’ worth of goods. Apparently, trading between Brazil and her South American neighbours on the same side of the Andes has been greatly increased during 1916, Argentina buying unprecedented amounts of sugar, as well as maintaining her imports of matte. During 1915, the total sales of Argentina to Brazil were worth over 89,000 contos, or something like $22,000,000, of which nearly $20,000,000 were accounted for by wheat and wheat flour. At the same time Brazil sold to the Argentine 42,226 contos’ worth (say $10,560,000) of goods, of which nearly 70 per cent was accounted for by matte sales, with 15 per cent of tobacco.

Brazilian imports show important changes in places of origin since the European War; formerly Great Britain was by far the greatest seller to this country, supplying nearly a third of the total goods purchased. In 1911 the order in importance of countries selling to Brazil were Great Britain, Germany, the United States, France, Argentina, Portugal, Belgium; in 1912 and 1913 the same order was maintained, but with Germany increasing her sales at a greater rate than Great Britain, while the United States also showed gains.

In 1914, with the outbreak of war, England still retained her top place, but with reduced values, while the United States drew second, Germany third and the Argentine fourth. In 1915, the United States sold more goods than any other country, and Great Britain came second, maintaining her command of the market in cotton piece goods in a remarkable manner, and holding over half of the coal sales in the latter item until 1916, when United States’ sales replaced the Welsh coal, whose export was then prohibited. Development of South Brazilian coal fields also helped to supply the home market to an increasing degree. During 1921–2 Britain recaptured much of her coal sales, and the share of the United States fell almost to pre-war conditions, from top place (81%) in 1920.

In U. S. currency, Brazil imported nearly $146,000,000 worth of goods in 1915, the United States selling about $47,000,000, England nearly $32,000,000 worth, while Germany’s former average of fifty-two millions was reduced to two. Many of these changes were due to the abnormal war situation, and while it could not be expected that the United States would retain an advantage due to the elimination of competitors, she was still the greatest supplier of goods in 1920, selling over twice as much as her nearest rival, Britain, or goods worth $52,000,000, in comparison with Britain’s $25,000,000. The European countries organized for overseas trading are making strenuous and determined efforts to regain the commerce built up by the transportation lines and development work financed from Europe; although they awaited the end of the war to renew these efforts. Probably the best recommendation of the United States to a large share in Brazilian imports lies not in commissions and reunions, but in her extensive purchases of Brazilian raw material.

Broadly speaking, nearly sixty per cent of Brazilian imports are manufactured goods. Large quantities of machinery, steel rails, locomotives, etc., are usually imported every year for the construction work needed in a vast and young country. Over twenty-four per cent of the total purchases are of foodstuffs with wheat and wheat-flour largely preponderant: last year one-fifth of the total imports of Brazil were credited to these two items. About ten per cent of Brazilian purchase money is paid for coal. Financial stringency due to abnormal conditions has cut down Brazilian imports in a salutary manner—and fortunately for Brazilian merchants and retailers, stores were at the outbreak of hostilities largely overstocked by the unprecedentedly large purchases of 1913, when $326,000,000 was paid for imports.

As a result of big sales and reduced buying, Brazil in 1915 had a trade balance in her favour of about 440,000 contos of reis (exports 1,022,634 contos and imports 582,996 contos) the equivalent of nearly $140,000,000 in United States currency. This balance appears to have largely remained abroad to help meet Brazilian indebtedness, and helped to steady exchange. This surplus of export values dropped well below 400,000 contos in 1916 and 1917, and to 148,000 in 1918, but rose to the unprecedented height of 845,000 in 1919, when the milreis soared to the rather inconvenient exchange value of 18 pence. The years 1920 and 1921 witnessed adverse balances of trade, with the milreis fallen below 8 pence, 1922 showing trade recoveries practically to pre-war values. Brazil has weathered many a storm commercially and industrially because the world needs her raw material; she has every reason for confidence in the future.

The Territory of Acre was legally acquired from Bolivia by the Government of Brazil in 1903 but had been populated and the rubber reserves worked by Brazilian seringueiros for at least ten years previously. Their entry into Bolivian lands was the cause of much friction until the final settlement by the payment by Brazil of £2,000,000 for this rich area.